Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 182355 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 755 PM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 746 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 Made some adjustments so far throughout the evening to pops and weather, as we continue to monitor showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. The best coverage is now across the northern half of the CWA, where we have likely pops, with more scattered convection across the southern CWA. Expect a diminishing trend in showers and thunderstorms as we continue to head through the evening and lose daytime heating. A new forecast package was sent out to reflect the changes in the pops/weather. Updates have also been made to make sure the hourly temp, wind, and dew points forecasts match up with current observations. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Will continue to monitor radar and make more updates to pops/weather as needed as well.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be ongoing across eastern Kentucky this afternoon through early this evening. This activity should taper off to isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms tonight, after we lose daytime heating. Showers and storms should begin to increase in number again by mid to late Saturday morning, as a trough of low pressure moves across the region. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated instances of flooding will be possible on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. The rain should steadily taper off Saturday night, as the trough moves off to our east. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, with lows the next two nights expected to fall only into the low to mid 60s, with highs on Saturday forecast to max out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Winds should be generally light and variable outside any thunderstorms or intense rain showers. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 Mean ridging across the western Atlantic coupled with progressive flow aloft from Canada through the Tennessee Valley and a nearby frontal boundary will keep a warm and unsettled pattern in the offing across eastern Kentucky. High temperatures will continue to range in the low-mid 80s with lows generally cooling into the low- mid 60s. Despite weak upper ridging and relatively lower moisture moving in Sunday, the approach of some weak height falls and a frontal boundary combined with residual moisture will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon into the evening. Increasing return flow, approach of an upper impulse pushing into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and proximity of the aforementioned front will bring better chances of showers and storms Monday. A northern stream disturbance rotating through Quebec by midweek will attempt to push the frontal boundary south across eastern Kentucky, creating additional shots for rainfall. May see an overall lull in precipitation later Wednesday into Thursday behind the front and ahead of a surface ridge off to the north as drier northwest flow filters in through the upper levels. However, speedy return flow via energy approaching out of the west will bring rain chances back by the end of the week. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2018 A warm front pushing northward through the state today has been the basis spawning showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky. As the warm front continues to progress north of the state overnight, expect the main source of energy and showers/thunderstorms to shift northward as well. Coverage will also continue to be hampered by the loss of daytime heating through the evening, so expect thunder potential to cease by 3Z (if not before) with only scattered to isolated showers remaining overnight. In fact, if low/mid clouds clear out of a particular TAF site, can`t rule out some fog development during the late night/early morning hours. By daybreak, deep SW flow in place will work to pull warm/moist and unstable air into the region, allowing for the development of more showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Storms tomorrow could see better organization, and could produce heavy rains, strong winds, and hail. Given the uncertainty of exactly when and where these storms will set up in relation to the TAF sites, kept VCTS mentioned through the morning, but expect more widespread coverage across all of eastern Kentucky during the afternoon so went prevailing -SHRA AND VCTS. If a storm does impact a particular TAF site, VIS will likely be affected.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...GUSEMAN AVIATION...JMW is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.