Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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002 FXUS63 KJKL 250124 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 924 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .UPDATE...
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Issued at 924 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 Extended isolated PoPs and clouds in the far southeast along the VA border due to a few isolated cells that have formed over Black Mountain and just across the Kentucky border. Other than this, just ingested current observations for temps and dew points. A new zfp was not needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 The forecast is on track so far this evening. Only needed to ingest and blend current observations. Kept clouds and isolated PoPs in the far southeast early this evening since there are a few clouds on satellite with slight returns on radar. However, this will likely dissipate in the next hour or so.
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&& .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 332 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 The afternoon surface analysis shows surface high pressure remains centered across western PA. This in combination with upper level ridging will keep most of the area dry. There still could be some isolated convection that fires up right along the VA border through the afternoon in proximity to a weak surface trough, but most locations will remain dry for the remainder of the day into tonight. Did keep some patchy valley in the grids tonight with some what of a ridge valley split expected. The upper level ridging will continue to weaken as a upper level trough pushes into the Midwest. This in combination with building instability and increasing PWAT values will give way to isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Given the lack of shear across the region the biggest threats will be for heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. The focus for convection will likely remain in the higher terrain for the most part. Some of these showers and thunderstorms could extent into Friday night, but will probably wain in coverage overall. There could be the potential for more fog, but kept this in the river valleys at this point. There could be more spots that see fog given the potential for rain, but that will have to be fine tuned as rainfall occurs. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 332 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 Deep moisture will be back in place by the start of the period, with our area positioned on the east side of a large but weak upper trough axis from the mid Mississippi Valley south to the Gulf of Mexico. Weak features will favor a largely diurnally driven convective pattern during the weekend. A tropical system moving north from the Gulf of Mexico will likely influence our weather during the next work week. At this stage in time and development, there is still considerable uncertainty. Early indications are that upper level flow will close off around the tropical system, temporarily putting our area in a col with very little flow early in the workweek. This could still allow for diurnal convection, but probably with less coverage. As the tropical system moves inland and weakens, its closed flow will open up, and deep tropical moisture could then stream northeast over us as the system is sheared apart. This presents a higher probability of precip again around mid week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2018 Light winds and VFR conditions will be seen for most of the area through tomorrow. However, some patchy valley fog may impact lower elevations late tonight into early Friday morning. However, this should not impact the TAF sites. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CGAL SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...KAS

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