Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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552 FXUS63 KJKL 211950 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 350 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 350 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 19z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure exiting the area with healthy cyclonic flow continuing through eastern Kentucky. These winds are upslope and as a result are helping to sustaining snow shower activity even as the low`s center is in the process of jumping to the East Coast. Visibilities with these showers remain between 1 and 2 miles - still impacting the area and likely accumulating a bit. Currently brisk northwest winds are running at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. The CAA on those winds, along with overcast conditions and snow showers, have kept temperatures from climbing too far out of the lower 30s across the area today. Meanwhile, dewpoints are similar to temperatures - generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Wrap around snow showers associated with the now coastal low are being enhanced by the upslope flow in the far east supporting some light accumulations this afternoon. Accordingly, will keep the WSWs running through 00z for the entire area, though we may be able to clear the southwest before too long. The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the deep trough that will run up the East Coast tonight. Trailing energy will exit Kentucky in northwest flow by Thursday morning. Height rises will follow as strong ridging starts to work east out of the Rockies and into the Plains. However, before this can influence the weather over Kentucky much, another short wave will ride southeast out of the northern Great Lakes region and brush by the area to the northeast early Friday morning - maintaining the strong northwest flow at mid levels. Given the good model agreement have favored a general blend with a lean toward the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 for specifics. Sensible weather will feature snow showers gradually winding down this evening from west to east with accumulating snow expected to be done toward 00z when the WSWs will likely be allowed to drop. Following the snow showers dissipating, clouds will break up from west to east late. CAA and radiative cooling tonight should send readings down into the lower and mid 20s by dawn Thursday. Any left over wet patches or slush on the roads tonight will likely refreeze and create localized black ice conditions. Have messaged this in the HWO and will make sure it is highlighted in the evening weather story, as well. Sunshine and high pressure will bring warmer temperatures to the area on Thursday drying us out and taking care of most of the snow on the ground. For Thursday night, the high will shift far enough east to allow some lower clouds to return to the southwest parts of the area in the form of a developing warm front. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies to also support a decent ridge to valley temp split overnight outside of the Cumberland Valley. Did make minor adjustments to temperatures tonight to go colder in the places that have deeper snow cover and also due to CAA affects on terrain. Likewise, adjusted temperatures Thursday night for relative elevation differences away from the southwest parts of the area. As for PoPs, lingered them a bit longer and higher in magnitude through the evening and into the early overnight hours in the east. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 The extended period will feature a mix of rain and snow to start things off, as a couple of low pressure systems move across the region over the weekend. The better chance of accumulating snow at this time looks to be for the period Friday night into Saturday morning. The latest model data indicates that the best chances for accumulating snow will occur north of Highway 80. The second chance for any snow will be Saturday night into Sunday morning, although this shot of snow looks like it will be marginal at best with little if any accumulations expected. Once the second weather system departs the area late Sunday, we should see a period of dry weather to begin the new work week. A ridge of high pressure should keep precipitation associated out of most of the area until Tuesday night. The ridge is then forecast to break down just enough to allow an area of low pressure and its surface front to move across the area on Wednesday. This system could potentially bring a good soaking rain to eastern Kentucky. Temperatures around the area should start off below normal, with highs in the 40s and 50s expected Friday through Sunday. We should see a return to normal temperatures on Monday, with highs that day expected to max out in the mid to upper 50s. Next Tuesday and Wednesday could see a return to well above normal temperatures, with highs on both those days possibly topping out in the 60s. Nightly lows should start off near or slightly above normal Friday and Saturday nights, with above normal nightly lows on tap after that.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED MAR 21 2018 IFR/MVFR ceilings with light snow will continue across the area through 21z, before gradually diminishing from west to east late this afternoon and early evening. VFR conditions will then eventually return into the early overnight hours into the day Thursday, as high pressure builds in from the west. West to northwest winds at 10 to 15 kts, with gusts of around 20 kts this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 kts after dusk remaining light through the night and before picking up again to near 10 kts later Thursday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.