Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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028 FXUS63 KJKL 210841 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 441 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 440 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Current conditions across the area feature mid and upper level cloud cover beginning to filter into the area. While some fog has indeed formed in the river valleys and some of the deeper valleys, this cloud cover may begin to hinder the development. The overall pattern continues to display a return flow situation with southerly flow assisted by high pressure just off the southeast coast. This as an impulse will track east today through the Midwest. The mentioned ridging in the southeast will hinder the approach of the from into the OH Valley. Nonetheless, with plenty of instability across the area today, showers and thunderstorms will develop by noon across eastern Kentucky and continue into the evening hours. Model soundings are hinting at PWATs between 1.50 and 1.75 today some storms will the potential to produce heavy rainfall will certainly be possible heading into this afternoon and evening. Tonight, despite the front pushing southeast thunderstorms will eventually diminish overnight giving way to showers. Valley fog will begin to develop, especially with the ample moisture in place. For Tuesday, the front will continue to slowly push southeast through the area. With ongoing convection, expect some of the boundary to wash out. Despite the boundary, activity will still take on a diurnal like trend in activity. Daytime heating for Tuesday afternoon will allow for additional thunderstorm development lasting into Tuesday evening. The summer like pattern will continue to be in place for the short term. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 415 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 The axis of a broad low amplitude upper trough and an associated weak surface cold front will be crossing the area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Convective precip should peak on Tuesday afternoon before the long term period starts, with a diurnal decline underway as the period starts. A few showers could still occur in southeast KY through mid day Wednesday before the cold front clears to our south. A slightly drier air mass will arrive behind the front, followed shortly thereafter by upper level ridging building in from the west. This combination will result in a period of warm and dry weather late in the week. Models then depict another upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes during the weekend, with a much weaker trough extension southward over the southeast CONUS. The developing deep layer flow pulls tropical moisture northward, and gives us a return of showers and thunderstorms in a diurnal pattern. A wildcard in the mix is the potential for development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico or off the southeast Atlantic coast. Models have been showing this for several days, but can`t come to any agreement on where and to what extent. Obviously, this could affect the flow of moisture and overall pattern, so there is a degree of uncertainty at the end of the long term period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 Expect VFR conditions to begin the TAF period and lasting into the morning hours. Some fog is expected to develop and have indicated this this in the river valleys but also some of the TAF sites. The 2 northern sites, where a bit more moisture were available, vis will drop to IFR and even LIFR conditions here for a short period of time. heading into the day, expect a round of showers and thunderstorms to move through so have indicated this in the TAF sites. Given the nature of convection the past few days, went with VCTS to show some uncertainty. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorms. Expect vis and cigs dropping in locations that a storm passes over. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

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