Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261912 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 312 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 251 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018 Some very light rain has already been reported at Middlesboro, and the Kentucky Mesonet shows that 0.10 inch of rain or less has occurred along the TN border from western KY to just west of our forecast area. As the low pressure system over northern Alabama this afternoon continues to drift east and eventually northeast, light rain will continue to spread north into our forecast area. There will be a significant rain chance gradient across the forecast area with the probability of precipitation for tonight ranging from around 90 percent in the far southeast to around 10 percent in the far northwest. Even where rain chances are high, rain amounts will be light with most areas seeing a tenth of an inch or less. Some amounts around a quarter of an inch are forecast for the extreme southeast KY mountains near VA. Rain chances will be highest this evening, with rain chances diminishing after midnight. From Friday afternoon into Friday evening a mid level short wave trough and weak surface cold front will approach and move across the area. A second cold front will then approach the area Friday night. With moisture lacking in all the models, and low MOS probabilities for both the GFS and NAM, it is not surprising that the standard model blend used here leaves out any mention of rain chances for Friday through Friday night. This seems reasonable and plan to leave out any mention of rain in the forecast for Friday and Friday night. Temperatures for tonight through Friday night will be near to slightly below normal. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 312 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018 Looking at a pattern shift in the extended. Overall flow is generally progressive. Upper level low and reinforcing short wave energy carves out a Western CONUS trough effectively kicking ridging eastward. But progressive pattern will carry ridge entirely through our region as we fall increasingly under the influence of a southwesterly flow regime by the latter portion of the forecast window. Closer to the surface, a large Canadian high pressure system will settle down over the Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday. Thereafter surface high pressure remains off to our east and we return to an extended period of return southerly flow. Sensible weather will generally be fair with only an occasional minor threat of rain, first Saturday (mainly in the far east) as a nearly dry cold front pushes through the area and then again late in the period (Thursday) as a stronger storm system approaches from the west. We should see a cool start to the extended Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60s. Temperatures will actually be low enough Sunday and Monday morning, low to mid 30s Sunday and around 30 Monday, for frost to be possible in our typically colder valley locations. Return southerly flow will warm us up quickly Monday and through the week sending afternoon highs into the 70s, even approaching the 80 degree mark by mid-week.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU APR 26 2018 VFR conditions will prevail across the entire area at the start of the forecast period, with MVFR to IFR conditions developing tonight across the southern and eastern part of the area. Low pressure over northern AL early this afternoon will drift east before turning more to the northeast tonight. As the low pulls northeast light rain will spread into the southern and eastern part of the forecast area this evening. Ceilings will lower in the south and east tonight with visibility decreasing in light rain and fog. The lowest ceilings and visibility are expected in the far southeast and far east. VFR conditions will persist the entire forecast period in the far north and northwest part of the forecast area. Conditions will improve Friday morning, with VFR expected across the entire area by mid to late morning. Winds will remain light from this afternoon into Friday afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SBH LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...SBH

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