Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 261736 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 136 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1042 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018 We continue to see showers riding along the high terrain near the Virginia border, with more isolated coverage outside that. There looks to be a weak mid-level disturbance riding through helping to generate this convection. The upper level disturbance nearby will continue to provide increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across the region. The latest GOES-16 visible channels show lower cloud coverage than expected in portions of eastern Kentucky and therefore updated the cloud cover to better deal with the latest trends. Otherwise, grids are in good shape with only minor edits to the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 824 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and POP trends through this morning. Mainly scattered showers are currently affecting far southeastern Kentucky, as a mid-level vort moves into the Tennessee Valley. This wave gradually dampen with time; however, with the larger scale trough moving in from the west, convection should fill in across the area as we heat up. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018 The latest surface map features broad low pressure across south central Canada with a strung out cold front aligned southward into the Great Lakes, before becoming more stationary back across the central Plains. Weak southwest flow is in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Aloft, a broad trough is aligned along the Mississippi Valley, with several embedded short waves/vorticity maxima noted. The broad trough will draw closer to the region today, allowing for better areal convective coverage, with scattered to numerous activity expected during the day. Storms should have a bit more movement today compared to yesterday; however, with PWATs around the 1.7 inch range, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern with any persistent or training cells. More cloud cover and precipitation will likely keep highs down a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, with most locations seeing mid 80s. The convection will wane with the loss of heating tonight, with areas of fog likely forming, despite thicker mid and high level clouds. Lows will be in the mid 60s. The trough will gradually dampen and slide to our east on Sunday. Mainly scattered convection is expected with the better chances occurring across far southeastern Kentucky. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018 The extended will be quite active with daily chances of showers and storms and warmer than normal temperatures. Troughs of low pressure aloft will bring scattered showers and storms to eastern Kentucky Monday and Tuesday. The best chances for thunderstorms on both of those days will be during the afternoon and early evening hours. The rest of the week gets a bit tricky, as the remnants of subtropical storm Alberto may be impacting our weather from Wednesday onward. As of now, several different forecast models have Alberto having some impact on our weather, its just a matter of exactly when Alberto will move through the area and how long and how much it will rain as a result. For now decided to got with a slightly modified version of the blended model data, mainly to match up with neighboring offices, due to the amount of uncertainty still in play. Will need to continue monitoring the status of Albert and how the models are handling him as the middle of next week approaches. At this time the best chances of rain are expected from Wednesday through Friday as Alberto moves through. Temperatures will continue to run above normal during the period, with daily highs in the 80s and nightly lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2018 The latest scans of the WSR-88D radar are showing the coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms increasing as expected across eastern Kentucky. While most sites are VFR, we are seeing the occasional MVFR cumulus clouds streaming through some sites. Overall opted to add a lower MVFR TEMPO group for shaper drop offs that could occur in thunderstorms that develop and ride across the TAF sites through the afternoon and early evening. However, you could see IFR or lower in the heart of some of the storms that are producing heavy rain at times. Then as we loose the better daytime heating we will see coverage of showers and thunderstorms decrease through the evening and overnight. The fog will remain somewhat tricky given the potential for rainfall to play a role in fog production. Given this have added or maintained a mention of MVFR fog at all the sites by late tonight into Sunday morning. The winds will remain light and variable through the period.
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&& .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.