Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000 FXUS63 KJKL 181940 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 340 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM EDT WED APR 18 2018 available shortly... .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT WED APR 18 2018 An area of surface high pressure is expected to be centered across the Upper Midwest on Friday and upper level ridge will progress east with the surface high Saturday. This will lead to a period of mostly clear skies and dry conditions through the first portion of the long term period. The temperatures will modify through the weekend, but does remain cold enough for Friday night into Saturday morning to lead to frost. Then a southern stream upper level low will progress out of the four corners into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday afternoon. The model guidance has struggled with continuity and consistency, with regards to the southern stream system. The GFS has leaned the wettest for the late weekend and the other models have leaned wetter toward Monday and Tuesday time frame. This becomes further convoluted as we see phasing potential by early to middle of next week. Given the lower confidence leaned toward the blended guidance which brings slight to chance POPs slowly north late Sunday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED APR 18 2018 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through 00z, with southwest winds becoming gusty. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 kts, with gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range will occur, especially along and west of a line from KSYM to KLOZ. A cold front will move through eastern Kentucky tonight, generally between 01 and 05z. Expect ceilings/visibilities to lower to MVFR at times with the frontal passage, along with some shower activity. Winds will shift to the west behind the front, with wind gusts peaking in the 25 to 35 kt range. The front will exit overnight, with west to west northwest winds gradually diminishing. A more solid MVFR cloud deck will move in after dawn Thursday morning, as an upper level disturbance moves east across the area. West to northwest winds will likely turn gusty once again during the day. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111-114. && $$ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...DJ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.