-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
264
FXUS63 KJKL 071852
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
252 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot conditions will gradually moderate through the week as
  humidity increases.

- Increasing humidity through the coming week will be accompanied
  by a potential for showers/thunderstorms especially each
  afternoon and evening, lasting potentially all the way into
  next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025

A pattern shift has occurred across the CONUS as the upper-level
ridge, which had brought warm and dry conditions, has broken down.
Surface high pressure still persists over the southeastern US;
however, a cold front is slowly tracking toward the CWA from the
northwest. Locally, showers and thunderstorms have already developed
ahead of this approaching boundary, and southwesterly flow continues
to advect warmer temperatures into eastern Kentucky. This
southwesterly flow has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper
80s, approaching the lower 90s.

A weak upper-level trough will pivot overhead through the CWA
tonight, but the primary forcing for the surface low responsible for
the cold front is situated over the Canadian Maritimes. Upper-level
forcing abandons the front, which is expected to stall along the
Ohio River later today. This will keep the CWA on the warm side of
the front, with highs climbing into the lower 90s. Additionally,
sufficient lift is in place to allow for the development of
widespread showers and thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm threat
appears marginal due to weak effective bulk shear values; however,
there is upwards of 1,100 J/kg of DCAPE, leading to the potential
for gusty outflow winds. Showers and storms will taper off toward
sunset, leading to a dry overnight. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with areas of valley fog and fog developing
from todays rainfall.

Tuesday will feature similar weather to Monday, as the baroclinic
zone remains stationary, and the threat for strong storms develops
again Tuesday afternoon. Highs are forecast to climb into the upper
80s to lower 90s, with widespread convective activity expected.
Again, effective bulk shear values remain marginal, but DCAPE values
are high once more, and gusty outflows are expected. Showers and
storms will once again dissipate toward the late evening hours.
Expect another night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s,
accompanied by areas of fog.

Overall, an active forecast period is expected due to a stalled
frontal boundary. Afternoon convection is anticipated each day, with
highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Each night will feature
overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s, along with areas of fog.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
in the Atlantic north of Bermuda while another upper level ridge is
expected to be centered over the Southwest Conus toward the Northern
Rockies. In between an upper level trough should extend from Canada
across the upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes vicinity to the
mid MS Valley to Arklatex vicinity. At that point, an upper level
low and associated trough should be nearing BC to the west coast of
the Conus. At the surface, a wavy frontal zone is expected to be in
place from the Maritimes to the Northeast to mid Atlantic states to
just north of the OH River to IA to Central Plains while sfc high
pressure is expected to centered near the northeast TN/SW VA
vicinity as well as over the Central Great Lakes and Northern
Plains. Per 00Z LREF mean, PW should be a bit above normal for this
time of year between about 1.55 and 1.8 inches or roughly between
the 75th and 90th percentiles.

From Tuesday to Wednesday night, a shortwave trough at 500 mb is
expected to gradually shift across the Great Lakes and into the
Lower to Middle OH valley while the southern end of the 500 mb
troughing lingers from the Ozarks to the Arklatex region. To the
east and southeast of the Commonwealth, upper level ridging is
expected to remain in place over the western Atlantic and centered
near Bermuda. Meanwhile further west and southwest, upper level
ridging remains in place from the Southwest into the eastern Pacific
while the northern portion of the ridge moves across the Northern
Plains to the Upper MS Valley. The Upper level low initially nearing
BC to the west coast of the Conus will move into western Canada and
across the Northwest to Northern Rockies to Great Basin. At the
surface, a wave moving along the front in advance of the shortwave
approaching the OH Valley from the Central Conus should pass
northwest of eastern KY leading to the frontal zone shifting north
and northeast of the area near midweek, extending from the mid
Atlantic states to northern/northeast OH and then southwest north of
the OH river to the mid MS Valley and then into portions of the
Central to northern Plains. A weak ridge of sfc high pressure per
the consensus of guidance should persist from the Southeast/Gulf
into the Southern Appalachians.

PW during the Tuesday to Wednesday night timeframe should generally
remain a bit elevated for this time of year in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch
range or no higher than the 75th to 90th percentile range. With the
slowly approaching shortwave trough and ample moisture in place,
convection cannot be ruled out at any point from Tuesday to
Wednesday night, though coverage and intensity should peak during
each diurnal cycle. 00Z LREF mean bulk shear is generally only on
the order of 10 to 15 KT so convection may be pulse in nature as
well and a lower end threat for gusty winds pending degree of
instability is anticipated for Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday per
experimental probabilistic guidance. Thunderstorms will likely
produce brief heavy rainfall, but the past several days have been
dry across eastern KY and only spotty rainfall is anticipated in the
short term. For any high water problems to develop, a location would
need to receive multiple rounds of heavy ran. High temperatures
should be nearer to normal for this time of year for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Thursday to Friday night, the shortwave trough that is expected to
move across portions of Ontario and the Great Lakes as well as the
Lower to Mid OH Valley regions should move northeast and dampen
early in the long term period while another shortwave is progged to
approach the Lower OH Valley and Commonwealth from the Mid MS Valley
on Thursday gradually crossing the region through Friday and Friday
night. Upper ridging is expected to remain in place over the
Atlantic centered near or northeast of Bermuda while another upper
level ridge should remain centered from the Southwest Conus to parts
of the eastern Pacific. Further west and northwest, an upper level
low and associated upper level troughing should move from western
parts of Canada and the Northwest Conus and Northern Rockies to near
the Manitoba/Ontario border to upper MS Valley and portions of the
Northern to Central Plains per the consensus of guidance. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure should remain in place from the
Gulf and Southeast into the Southern Appalachians while a frontal
zone remains north and northeast of eastern KY from the mid Atlantic
states to north of the OH River to south of the Great Lakes, though
by Friday to Friday night should lift further north into the Great
Lakes. This should occur as a sfc low associated with the shortwave
trough approaching from the west nears the Great Lakes while a cold
front trailing to the Southern Plains. A warm and rather moist
airmass will remain in the warm sector though shear should continue
to be limited with 00Z LREF mean bulk shear on the order of 10 to
15KT so convection may continue to be pulse type/typical of this
time of year. Convection cannot be completely ruled out at any point
with the shortwave trough gradually moving across the OH and TN
Valley region though coverage should generally peak each afternoon
and evening. Highs should average near normal to a few degrees below
normal

Saturday to Sunday, guidance varies with the handling of the upper
level low as it moves east or northeast over Canada with the
trailing shortwave trough moving into the Great Lakes while
confidence is greater that upper level ridging will remain centered
over the Southwest Conus to parts of the eastern Pacific and in the
Atlantic. Some of the guidance has a more southern shortwave nearing
the Lower OH Valley from the central Conus to end the period. Sfc
low pressure should track north of eastern KY during this period
while the trailing cold front should approach the Lower OH Valley
next weekend though it may not pass south of eastern KY. A general
diurnal peak in convection is anticipated next weekend as well
though. 00Z LREF mean and 12Z GFS MUCAPE is the highest of the
next 7 days on Saturday afternoon and evening, but shear should
continue to be limited. Some, but not all, AI EC based forecasts
have a bit higher convective chances for Saturday as does the
experimental GEFS based severe probabilties and trends for that
timeframe will be monitored as the week progresses for the
potential for strong storms. Highs should remain near normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025

Terminals are VFR with this TAF issuance; however, scattered
showers and thunderstorms have developed and if one of these
showers impacts a terminal, a brief category reduction will be
likely. Showers and storms will taper off toward the overnight
hours but areas of fog are forecast to develop which could lead to
categorical reductions through the overnight at all terminals. A
brief lull in activity is expected early Tuesday morning but
shower and storm chances will return after 15Z/Tuesday. South to
southwesterly sustained winds around 10 knots are expected through
the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST