Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
415 FXUS64 KLCH 072319 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 619 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -An upper low will support enhanced rain chances of sea breeze and daytime heating showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. -An upper level trough moving around a strong ridge over the southwest U.S. will continue a break in the upper level ridge through the end of the week allowing typical diurnally driven convection mainly during the afternoon. -Over the weekend, the upper level ridge will expand into the region bringing the potential for lower rain chances and an increase in the heat. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning just south of the Louisiana coast. Some increase in moisture has been noted as this system moves across with GOES PWAT increasing to between 1.8 - 1.9 inches across the forecast area. With that, showers and thunderstorms have developed, especially where the sea breeze boundary is setting up. This activity will continue and spread inland through the afternoon hours. Some gusty winds to 30 - 35 mph and some brief torrential downpours will be possible with the storms, especially where mesoscale boundaries collide. The upper level low will gradually push west across the forecast area and become stretched as it moves into east Texas over the next couple of days. Enough of a weakness aloft to keep diurnal and sea breeze showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon, although some activity could get an early start near the coast. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A break in the subtropical ridge to the east and a strong upper level ridge over the southwest U.S. will begin the long term period and continue through the end of the week. With mainly typical moisture values with PWAT in the 1.8 to 2 inch range projected and mean layer relative humidity values over 60 percent, the daily chance for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon will continue. By the weekend, there is some indication that the upper level ridging will begin to consolidate across the forecast area. This will bring about the potential for lower rain chances. Along with that, an increase in heat and humidity. A little early, but max apparent temperature tool suggests that max afternoon heat index readings will be in the 108 to 110 degree range, and if this verifies, a heat advisory would need to be issued. Rua && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Currently there are still a few scattered showers and storms about the area, however, none directly impacting the TAF sites at the moment, hence carrying VCTS until later this evening. Minus some patchy fog overnight, conditions are expected to remain fairly quiet and VFR. Whatever fog forms will be quick to burnoff after sunrise. Tomorrow afternoon we can expect another round of convection, thanks to an upper low that has its influence on the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Weak high pressure at the surface over the northeast Gulf will ridge across into the coastal waters. This will allow for mainly light southerly winds to continue along with low seas. A weak disturbance aloft will keep a daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Low level southerly flow will continue during the period and this will keep high humidity across the region. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will be in the 50 to 60 percent range. A weakness aloft will allow for a daily chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, although along the coast shower activity may start shortly after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 93 72 93 / 10 60 20 70 LCH 76 91 76 92 / 20 70 20 70 LFT 75 90 75 91 / 10 70 10 80 BPT 76 91 75 91 / 20 70 20 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...87