Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
651 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018



IFR to LIFR ceilings prevail this morning at all sites with the
exception of AEX where showers have kept the atmosphere a bit more
mixed. Patchy fog has also developed this morning with LFT and
ARA seeing the lowest visibility restrictions. This has improved
somewhat over the last hour, but visibilities under a mile will
still be possible until around 14Z.

Expect ceilings to gradually improve through the morning with
MVFR at most locations by late morning through the evening.
Ongoing scattered showers across the area will continue through
much of the day with a few thunderstorms possible. Activity will
begin to wane with the setting sun. Ceilings will lower to IFR once
again overnight tonight. Another round of patchy fog will also be

South to southwesterly winds will prevail through the period, but
could become variable near convective development.

A cold front will begin to push through the area near the end of
the TAF period and while confidence in timing is not high enough
yet to flesh out the wind shift, it is worth noting that scattered
showers and thunderstorms may begin to affect BPT around or just
beyond 12Z Monday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/

Early this morning...WFO Lake Charles radar showed showers
developing across interior southeast Texas and moving towards
the east and northeast. Elsewhere...patchy fog had developed
across the region with a very narrow spread between the
temperature and dewpoint. Surface temperatures were mainly in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Looking at the big picture...deep troughing across the Western
United States continued to migrate eastward allowing for
disturbances to be kicked out into central Texas where development
occurred last night and has now moved east into interior
southeast Texas.

GFS and RAP13 models are in good agreement showing a mid level
vorticity maximum moving across the area this morning and exiting
this afternoon across the eastern parts of the area. Will maintain
Highest pops mainly across interior southeast Texas east into
central and south central Louisiana today. Will keep pops in for
tonight from the I-10 corridor and northward where weak disturbances
will continue to translate from west to east.

A dry front then advances across the area Monday as low pressure
tracks across the plains and thru the mid-Mississippi valley
bringing a significant lowering of dew points on a westerly flow.
Next trof follows Tuesday punching colder air into the region with
northerlies that will hold through much of Wednesday before
turning southerly Wednesday night into the remainder of the week
as the upper level ridging develops over the central plains.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Monday with a
return to more seasonal cooler temperatures Tuesday through
Thursday. A warmup begins Friday through next weekend.

A light to moderate onshore flow will continue today as the
northwest Gulf remains between high pressure ridging west across
the Gulf waters and low pressure advancing east across the
southern Plains. Patchy sea fog is possible for the remainder of this
morning and again tonight into Monday morning. As the upper low
advances into and through the mid- Mississippi valley on
Monday...a westerly flow will develop as a surface trough passes
through. A northwesterly surge of cooler air will follow Monday
night into late Tuesday night with small craft advisory conditions
possible during this period. A southerly return flow develops
Wednesday night through the remainder of the week.


AEX  78  66  83  51 /  50  40  10   0
LCH  80  69  83  53 /  40  20  20   0
LFT  79  69  83  55 /  60  20  20   0
BPT  81  68  83  53 /  30  20  10   0




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