000
FXUS63 KLOT 290540
AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1240 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Through Tuesday...

Only forecast concern is the dewpoints, which continue to be
lower than guidance forecast. Dewpoints mixed out Sunday
afternoon allowing relative humidity levels do dip into the middle
teen percent range across many areas. Maintained lower than
guidance dewpoints for both today and Tuesday though there is some
uncertainty for increasing dewpoints later Tuesday afternoon. As a
result, with highs warming a few degrees each day, afternoon
minimum relative humidity levels will once again be in the 20
percent range today, perhaps a little higher on Tuesday. Other
than the lake breeze pushing winds into the 15 mph range, winds
are not a concern today or Tuesday. Thus, not planning any
elevated fire danger mention. Northeast winds along with the lake
breeze will keep areas near Lake Michigan cooler today and
Tuesday. Passing mid/high level clouds will likely be sufficient
enough for partly cloudy wording though there may be periods of
mostly sunny and some periods of mostly cloudy. cms

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Tuesday through Sunday...

The quiet weather pattern continues into mid-week, as the Low
pressure system off the mid-Atlantic coast struggles to move
northward due to the dominate stacked High pressure over the
northeast CONUS. With these two systems not being able to track
out of the Atlantic till late week, the main flow of potential
weather will come from the east...associated with the mid-Atlantic
Low. Model guidance is beginning to depict some "potential"
precipitation to return across the Midwest starting mid-week into
the second half of the week. However, at this time it does not
appear anything significant is anticipated to develop as excessive
dry air lingers over the region. Any precipitation will need to
work with "weak rising" Td`s into the upper 50s and 60s before any
chance of real precip development would occur. Went ahead and
limited PoP mention to slight chance, along with the option of
thunderstorms if we get diurnal development. Otherwise, looks like
the long term should remain dry for a majority, if not all of the
forecast period.

Temperatures around the region are expected to continue climbing
into mid-week where highs are forecast to reach 90 inland
Wednesday and some locations could see low 90s by the end of this
week. Closer to the lakeshore, temps are forecast to climb into
the upper 70s to around 80 by Thursday.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs...

Quiet VFR aviation weather conditions will continue through the
TAF period once again. Light/variable winds under 5 kts will trend
east-northeast around 10 kt as mixing commences and the daily
lake breeze develops a few hours after sunrise this morning.
Winds will become light and variable again after sunset tonight.
Scattered to occasionally broken mid/high level cloud cover is
expected above 11-12 kft.

Ratzer

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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