Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000 FXUS66 KLOX 041131 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 331 AM PST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS...04/328 AM. High pressure will build today and bring warming and drying through Friday. There is a slight chance of light rain over northern areas on Saturday. A couple of stronger and colder storms are possible between late next Monday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/257 AM. High pressure will build over the region today as the low pressure system that brought rain yesterday continues racing to the northeast. There is a patch of clouds over the San Gabriels that likely developed from residual moisture, but it will likely clear up later this morning. Rising heights, weak offshore flow, and abundant sunshine will give way to lots of warming across the region today. Expect 6 to 12 degrees of warming with high temperatures back into the mid to upper 60s. Onshore flow will develop this afternoon and marine layer stratus will likely make its return to the Central Coast and possibly the Salinas Valley this evening. Weak northerly flow will likely keep the Ventura and LA County Coasts clear. Friday will be another very quiet and pleasant day. With a little more offshore flow temperatures will warm another 3 to 6 degrees. Most areas (minus the Central Coast) will be several degrees above normal with high temperatures back up into the 70s across the valleys. An upper-level trough is slated to move into the Central California coast late Friday to early Saturday. The approach of the trough will possibly bring marine layer stratus to all the coastal areas Friday night. A dissipating cold front will swing through the Central Coast early Saturday, but precipitation chances look very slim. There may be a slight chance of light rain over SLO County, but models and ensembles are keeping the area dry. Some gusty west to northwest winds are possible during the afternoon after frontal passage, particularly for the Antelope Valley. There is also a chance of low-end advisory level Sundowner winds across the Santa Barbara South Coast during the evening, especially the western portion. Lowering heights and onshore flow will combine to cool temperatures back down into the 60s. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/331 AM. Sunday will be very nondescript with just some dry southwest aloft and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Broad troughing will develop across the Eastern Pacific on Monday and a few impulses will move across California through next week. The best chances of rain will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, but still plenty of uncertainty in timing and amounts due to model differences. The GFS is more progressive and has the bulk of the precipitation moving over Southern California on Tuesday evening. The ECMWF is slower but looks stronger. The current forecast will indicate broadbrushed chance PoPs across the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow levels will be low so there will be a chance of snow across the mountains. This may bring winter travel impacts to the major mountain passes. Plenty of uncertainty in terms of amounts, but not expecting a major precipitation event. It will be fairly cloudy and cool next week with temperatures struggling to reach 60. && .AVIATION...04/1114Z. At 0808Z at KLAX, There was no marine layer nor an inversion. Fairly good confidence in coastal TAFs through 17Z then high confidence. There is a 20 percent chc of MVFR (or low VFR) cigs developing and lasting until 17Z. Good confidence in inland TAFs. KLAX...Fairly good confidence in TAF through 17Z with a 20 percent chc of BKN035 cigs through 17Z. Good confidence that there will be no east wind component greater than 6 kt. KBUR...Good confidence in VFR TAF. && .MARINE...04/314 AM. Outer Waters... Good confidence in forecast through tonight with no Small Craft Advisory (SCA) (winds or seas). Moderate confidence in seas reaching 10 ft on Friday. Good confidence that both winds and seas will be at or above SCA levels Saturday. Inner Waters N of Point Sal... Good confidence in winds and seas forecast through Friday. Moderate confidence that SCA hazardous level seas will begin Friday night and good confidence of SCA conditions Saturday. Inner Waters S of Point Conception... Good confidence in sub SCA level conditions today and Friday. Better confidence in SCA conditions developing Saturday esp in the western half of the inner waters. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). High surf and dangerous rip currents are likely through the middle of next week. Gusty west to northwest winds will create driving and boating hazards at times through next Wednesday. A couple of storms could bring winter hazards to the mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. && $$ PUBLIC...Stewart AVIATION...Rorke MARINE...Rorke SYNOPSIS...Stewart weather.gov/losangeles

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