Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 270906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
406 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

The cold front that pushed through yesterday evening made good
progress southward and was located south of I-10 at the time of
this AFD. A few showers and storms that developed ahead of a
shortwave trough have also pushed well southeast of the forecast
area. Surface winds have weakened after being fairly strong behind
the front and skies have cleared across all but the far
southwestern South Plains where a few high clouds are drifting
southeast. Still could see a few areas in the northwestern South
Plains touch freezing before sunrise but it will be short lived
and mainly in low-lying areas. Quiet weather will continue into
Saturday as a shortwave ridge moves overhead and flow aloft starts
to transition to the southwest. Southerly surface winds will
start to pick up as the lee surface trough starts to redevelop
across New Mexico and we will see the return of some low-level
moisture to the area starting late Saturday and picking up into
Sunday Morning.

Much of the forecast for the first half of next week will depend
on how a sloshing dryline will develop and move day-to-day. Flow
aloft will remain out of the southwest ahead of a broad trough
across the western U.S. that will gradually amplify into a closed
low by Wednesday morning. This pattern is favorable for dryline
development and the mixing zone will stay west of the state line
on Sunday. This could result in scattered thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon into evening on the Caprock and a few may be severe
thanks to SBCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk
shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range. The dryline will then
shift further east each afternoon Monday and Tuesday generally
stopping along or just east of the Caprock Escarpment late in the
afternoon, then mixing back west in the evening and overnight
hours. By Wednesday, enough mixing will take place to help push
the dryline into western Oklahoma and potentially out of our area
leaving very dry air in place and the potential for critical fire
weather conditions depending on how strong wind speeds will be.
Because the threat of convection is highly conditional on where
the dryline will end up and what additional lift there will be to
help storms to form, kept PoPs below guidance and generally in the
slight chance range for Monday through Thursday.

Very end of the forecast remains uncertain for all weather
elements as the models are still showing a front arriving sometime
late Thursday or Friday morning. This will cool temperatures down
again and it remains uncertain whether enough moisture will be in
place with the frontal arrival for convection so left forecast dry
for now.





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