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000
FXUS61 KLWX 240802
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
402 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drift southward into the area this morning,
settling near southern Virginia this evening. High pressure will
crest over the area tonight, migrating off the Mid-Atlantic
coast on Saturday. A weak cold front will approach from the
north and linger nearby Sunday and Monday. Bermuda high pressure
sets up toward the middle portion of next week, resulting in
hot and humid conditions over much of the eastern United States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar activity has waned significantly over the last 12 hours,
with just a few weak showers heading toward central Virginia. A
cold currently situated near the Mason Dixon Line will continue
its track southward into our CWA this morning, settling across
southern Virginia by this evening. As a result, drier air will
filter into the area today, as dewpoints currently well into the
60s fall back into 50s by this afternoon. The drier air will be
transported on increasing northwesterly flow in the wake of the
front, which will be breezy at times today. Mostly clear skies
early this morning will persist today, allowing for ample
sunshine and temperatures rising into the low to middle 80s.
While temperatures will be above normal for late May, the drier
air will definitely take away the preview of summer we
experienced yesterday.

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes this morning will
transit overhead tonight, turning winds light and northerly,
while delivering dry conditions and temperatures ranging in the
middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Increasing clouds expected Saturday morning as the high shifts
off the Mid Atlantic coast and the frontal boundary starts to
lift northward as a warm front, settling near the Potomac
Highlands by days end. The shifting high will also veer winds
southerly, helping pump back into the area increasing humidity
late in the day. As a result, afternoon showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and west of the I-81
corridor. Only carrying chance POPs for now, so definitely not
a washout for our mountain zones. Temperatures will actually be
a touch cooler on Saturday compared to today as the warm front
doesn`t actually lift through the area until Saturday night.
Highs will top out in the lower 80s for most. A few showers will
be possible across our northern tier Saturday night as the warm
front does lift through the area, but a majority of locations
will remain dry. Lows Saturday night holding in the middle 60s.

Much warmer and humid conditions forecast on Sunday as the warm
front races northward into New England and winds taking on a
downsloping westerly flow. Temperatures will rise well into the
80s, with some low 90 degree readings quite possible across
central Virginia. A weak cold front will be approaching from the
north on Sunday, residing just to our north by Sunday evening.
The warm and humid conditions combined with the approaching
front will allow for afternoon showers and storms to spark,
favoring northern/western MD and eastern WV with the highest
POPs. Models are hinting at convection earlier in the day
across IL/IN tracking eastward along the frontal boundary and
nearing our area Sunday evening and night. Given the likely
nocturnal arrival of this activity, which will be weakening as
it travels eastward, and a meager shortwave trough tracking
overhead, will advertise showers and isolated thunderstorms
during the evening, with a chance of showers continuing
overnight. That being said, there will be enough
instability/shear, as well as the frontal forcing to bring a
potential for at least some strong thunderstorms across western
MD and eastern WV. Will have to monitor this threat over the
next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will drop into the area from the north for Memorial
Day, resulting in a modest cool-down along with more clouds and the
risk of a shower or t-storm. This trend reverses by Tuesday, as a
wave of low pressure passing to the north helps nudge the front back
to our north and allows warm humid air to overspread the region once
again. Bermuda high pressure will thus regain control, and its
strength should increase by Wednesday, with latest guidance hinting
at widespread low-mid 90s for afternoon highs mid-week. By Thursday,
a cold front will be approaching from the northwest, resulting in a
modest drop in temps and an increased risk of showers and
t-storms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will sink southward across the terminals this
morning, settling to the south by this evening. As such, drier air
will filter into the region on breezy northwest winds, gusting
upwards of 25 knots through this afternoon.

High pressure will transit the terminals overnight and early
Saturday, with continued VFR conditions. Afternoon
showers/storms may yield an episode of sub VFR conditions at
MRB, but restrictions at all other terminals not expected with a
developing light southerly wind. Better chance of
showers and storms Sunday afternoon and overnight as a cold
front nears the terminals from the north, thus the chance for
brief sub VFR conditions exists.

Low clouds could impact the terminals Monday or Tuesday on the cool
side of a slow moving frontal boundary. By afternoon both days, the
risk of sub-VFR conditions should generally lessen, particularly
Tuesday as the front lifts back north. A stray shower or t-storm is
also possible, especially Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As a cold front pushes southward through the waters today, gusty
northwest winds will take hold. As such, SCA conditions are
expected until early this evening across all waters. High
pressure will transit the waters overnight, with lighter winds
prevailing.

Increasing southerly flow is expected on Saturday as the high
shifts offshore. Marginal SCA gusts will be possible Saturday
afternoon and night, but confidence in occurrence and coverage
is too low at this time for any SCA. Showers/storms could cross
the waters late Sunday and Sunday night, delivering gusty winds.
Outside of this activity, winds are expected to remain westerly
and sub SCA.

A shower or thunderstorm is possible Monday, though the risk of
special marine warnings appears to be low. Conditions should be
more tranquil Tuesday as a slow moving frontal boundary lifts
back north of the waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ530>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BKF
NEAR TERM...BKF
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...BKF/RCM
MARINE...BKF/RCM