Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 280151 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 951 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure builds into the region late Saturday through the middle portion of next week. Another cold front will approach the Mid-Atlantic region the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Earlier thunderstorm activity is slowly starting to stratify out and weaken as it progresses eastward across the area. As a result, the threat for both severe thunderstorms and flash flooding is winding down across the area. Residual showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will continue over the next few hours with much of the area still situated within a favorable area for synoptic scale ascent within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak to our north/within a zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the mid-level low. This shower activity should gradually wind down during the second half of the overnight hours as the surface cold front progresses through and starts to scour out low- level moisture.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough will still be overhead Saturday before pivoting to the east by Saturday afternoon. This will support a continued chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, mainly across the Potomac Highlands and within a couple counties of the Pennsylvania border. A fair amount of cloud cover will persist, but temperatures should be slightly warmer than today. High pressure builds in from the west Saturday night and Sunday. Dry and warm conditions are expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will dominate the region for the start of the period, yielding dry conditions with warming temperatures. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s, with most areas east of the Blue Ridge seeing highs in the 90s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures cool slightly (still upper 80s for most) on Thursday as high pressure moves out and showers and thunderstorms move in with an approaching cold front from the northwest. There is potential for severe thunderstorms with this system, but uncertainty is still high. We will continue to monitor the threat as we grow closer to the event. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The most intense thunderstorms are progressing out of the area, but residual showers will linger over the terminals for the next few hours. This shower activity should wind down during the second half of the overnight and winds should turn westerly as a cold front progresses through the area. A shower or thunderstorm could develop near MRB, BWI, and MTN through Saturday afternoon as an upper level disturbance crosses, but coverage/confidence too low to include in the TAFs. Light winds and VFR conditions will prevail Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure builds in. With high pressure in place, VFR conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE... A second round of showers and thunderstorms is possible this evening that could contain gusty winds. Outside of this activity, southerly winds will still gust to SCA levels at times through this evening, before turning lighter out of the west as a cold front pushes across the waters overnight. West winds could be near SCA criteria on Saturday, especially on the northern part of the bay. High pressure will build into the region later Saturday through the remainder of the weekend as winds remain sub SCA and become out of the south by Sunday. Conditions Monday and Tuesday are expected to be dry and calm, though southerly flow could cause some channeling of the winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Elevated water levels persist across the region. As a result, water levels may reach Action Stage around high tide through Saturday morning before the winds turn offshore behind a cold front. Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront will be closest to minor flooding. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003>006-008- 011-013-014-503>508. VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ031-052>054- 501-502-505-506. WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ051>053. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533- 535-536-538>542. Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537- 543.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...KJP SHORT TERM...ADS LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...ADS/KJP/CAS MARINE...ADS/CAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

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