-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
290
FXUS61 KLWX 132003
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind Advisory this afternoon was expanded eastward to encompass
Baltimore County southward. Additionally, the Small Craft
Advisory was extended through Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A strong cold front will arrive Monday, bringing strong
 winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms.

- 2) Gusty winds continue across the area through
early Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front will arrive Monday,
bringing strong winds and the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

The Mid Atlantic should be in the warm sector of a powerful low
pressure system over the Great Lakes on Monday. A deep upper trough
pushing east of the Mississippi Valley will be taking on a negative
tilt. Winds throughout the atmosphere will be very strong, along
with notable low level wind shear (though more speed than
direction). Dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s and modest mid
level lapse rates will limit instability but there should still be
enough to support convection. The thermodynamic profile could be one
of the primary factors into just how significant the severe weather
is. There is some threat for some leading cellular development in
the warm sector which could pose a wind and tornado risk. Then, a
squall line is likely to develop ahead of the sharp cold front.
Damaging winds, some potentially significant, will be a threat with
the squall line. A QLCS tornado threat could also be present,
although the shear vectors will be more parallel to the line vs. the
more favorable perpendicular. Seasonally high precipitable water
will also result in heavy rain, although storms will be moving
quickly. Timing is still a bit uncertain, but the most favorable
conditions combined with afternoon/early evening timing are
projected east of the Blue Ridge. SPC has highlighted a somewhat
rare 30 percent day 4 severe outlook for this area. Besides the
convective winds, gradient winds will also be strong immediately
ahead of and behind the front which could cause additional localized
tree damage and/or complicate recovery efforts. Cold air will be
rushing in immediately following the frontal passage. At a minimum,
the Allegheny Mountains will change to snow for a time in upslope
conditions. It remains uncertain if any postfrontal precip lingers
to the east long enough to change over.

Cold and windy conditions linger into Tuesday with the upper trough
overhead. Tuesday night will likely be the coldest night of the
stretch with widespread temperatures in the teens and 20s. A warming
trend will then take place the remainder of the week as surface high
pressure slides off the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Gusty winds continue across the area through
early Saturday morning.

Gusty south winds continue this afternoon as high pressure
shifts offshore and a warm front lifts through the forecast
area. Surface low pressure tracks northeast across the Great
Lakes with the associated cold front pushing through the
forecast area this evening and into early Saturday morning.
There will be a brief lull in winds this evening before winds
shift to northwesterly and increase in the wake of the cold
front. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for portions of the
Alleghenies with Wind Advisories in effect along and west of the
I-95 corridor until 00Z. Advisories for the ridges along the
Blue Ridge and Alleghenies remain in effect through late this
evening.

In the wake of the cold front, dry conditions are expected on
Saturday. Precipitation returns Sunday night as a warm front
lifts through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across the terminal through Saturday
as dry conditions continue. The main aviation hazard will be
gusty winds and wind shear through this evening. South winds
gust 30 to 40 knots this afternoon before diminishing slightly
overnight during a lull. A cold front pushes through the
forecast area Saturday morning with winds shifting to
northwesterly and increasing to gusts between 15 and 25 knots
Saturday afternoon.

A warm front lifts through the terminals on Sunday, bringing
southeast winds and increased precipitation chances. Sub-VFR
conditions are possible during precipitation Sunday evening and
into the overnight.

Sub-VFR ceilings will lift through Monday morning. A strong cold
front will cross the area Monday afternoon or evening with showers
and potentially a squall line of severe thunderstorms. Winds shift
from southerly to west-northwesterly behind the front with potential
gradient gusts of 30 to 40 knots. Tight gradients persist into
Tuesday with westerly gusts to around 20 to 30 knots. No significant
weather Wednesday as high pressure slides by.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Gale Warning is in effect for all of the waters through early
this evening. Southerly winds will gust around 30 to 40 knots
before diminishing just after sunset. A Small Craft Advisory is
in effect for portions of the waters tonight.

Small Craft Advisories were extended to include portions of the
waters through Saturday midday Saturday. The strongest winds
will be across the northern portion of the Bay, and westerly
winds may approach gale-force levels.

Winds diminish gradually below advisory criteria later Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night. Additional SCAs may be needed
Sunday afternoon as southeast winds gust up to 20 knots.

Either high end SCA or low end gale conditions in gradient winds are
expected Monday into Monday evening both ahead of and behind a sharp
cold front that will sweep across the area. Severe convection,
likely in the form of a squall line, will also accompany the front.
SCA conditions in westerly flow will continue Tuesday before
diminishing Tuesday night. High pressure will provide lighter winds
on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy conditions will continue ahead of a cold front which will
cross the area tonight. There is elevated fire danger across
portions of eastern West Virginia this afternoon due to the
combination of wind gusts up to 50 mph and relative humidity less
than 30 percent. These areas also saw a relative minimum of
precipitation over the past two days.

Saturday will be the driest day region wide, behind the frontal
passage from tonight. RH values could drop into the upper teens to
20s across much of the area. Winds will be lower compared to Friday,
but will remain somewhat elevated, especially along/north of the
Interstate 66 corridor, where 20-35 mph wind gusts can be expected.
A Special Weather Statement may be needed.

Gusty winds but increasing RHs are forecast Sunday ahead of another
front, which looks to bring wetting rains Sunday evening/night.
There is less of a threat Sunday, but any ongoing fires could feel
the impacts of some gusty southeasterly flow (20-30 mph gusts).
Showers and thunderstorms look likely on Monday before strong west-
northwesterly winds overspread the area Monday evening into Tuesday.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
DC...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ008.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ004>006-011-
     013-014-016-503>506.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ003-502.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ501-509-510.
VA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ053>055-501-
     502-505-506-526-527.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ025>031-504.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ503.
     Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ507-508.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ050>053-055-
     502-504-506.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ503.
     High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ530>532-538>540.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ533>537-541>543.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ535-536.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS