Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 171849 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will slowly lift northward as a warm front tonight, eventually pulling north of the region by early Thursday. A weak cold front will track through on Thursday before a stronger cold front arrives on Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Warm front is located along I-64 and separates upper 50s to low 50s and even upper 40s dewpoints. Lots of stable wave clouds seen earlier on visible imagery across southwest areas indicative of convective inhibition present. On the other hand, a destabilizing air mass is seen on visible imagery over ern OH, nrn WV, and wrn PA ahead of main convective line over Michigan and western OH. Latest CAMs suggest that line will reach western MD around 02Z, although can`t rule out a few/ isold showers and/or t-storms to develop along the warm front later this afternoon or evening, mainly across northern MD. Expect the line of convection over OH to weaken rapidly into showers as it enters Maryland tonight as it will be arriving around or after midnight. Overnight, areas of low clouds and/or fog are likely particularly across north central MD.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Warm front lifts into PA Thu followed by a weak cold front. Guidance shows a stable air mass and plenty of mid-level dry air to prevent convection, so only a windshift is expected. Next cold front will cross the area Friday with showers expected. Air mass looks stable to prevent thunderstorms.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A cold front will be draped further south early Saturday, with limited moisture availability but winds will be gusting 20 to 25 knots, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Highs will be in the 60s to low 60s for much of the area aside from the mountains, where mid 50s will be more common. Slightly cooler weather returns Sunday with continued dry conditions across the area with winds diminishing. By the start of the workweek, a low pressure system to the south will continue to nudge eastward. A few light showers will be possible, mainly across the southernmost tier counties of our area. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the upper 60s to near 70 Monday and Tuesday. Renewed shower chances increase as a shortwave moves nearby from the Great Lakes region. Warming conditions will continue into midweek.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Some showers and/or t-storms are expected tonight mainly across northern MD. They are likely to stay away from the main terminals, except CHO. Wind shift tomorrow to NW behind a cold front, but remaining dry. VFR conditions are expected Saturday into Sunday, with gusty WNW winds expected on Saturday before dissipating by Sunday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Showers possible across the northern waters tonight and Fri. Marginal SCA gusts are possible Thu. SCA conditions are possible Saturday into Saturday night before winds weaken into Sunday. No other marine hazards are expected for the weekend.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... While some action stages may be reached through Thursday night (anomalies 1-1.5 feet above normal), the greater water level rises and potential for minor flooding will be toward Friday and Friday night as onshore or southerly flow develops ahead of a low pressure system. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...LFR/ADM MARINE...LFR/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

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