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952
FXUS61 KLWX 250120
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
920 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A front will remain stalled over the area overnight. A cold
front approaching from the Ohio River Valley will cross the Mid-
Atlantic Thursday night. High pressure will take control of the
weather through early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Shower activity over southern Maryland and the central
Chesapeake Bay will continue to wane through the rest of this
evening. Additional showers could move into western Maryland and
northeastern West Virginia through midnight but could loose
their punch and dissipate as well. Some patchy fog and low
clouds will likely develop again overnight, as well.

A cold front will slowly approach from the Ohio River Valley
Thursday, then cross the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night. Some added
forcing with the front, as well as aloft with the associated
upper trough, will touch off scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from midday through the afternoon. Lapse rates
aloft remain poor, but continued 30-40 kt mid-level flow could
aid in loosely organized bands of storms that may bring gusty to
damaging surface winds (again, isolated/localized in nature).

PWs actually decrease through the day as some drier air starts
to sneak in from the west. This plus progressive storm motions
and the continued drought should limit the flood threat.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Conditions clear out as drier air moves in more readily
Thursday night through Friday night. This will result in less
humid weather and seasonable temperatures.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A fairly quiet weekend is ahead weather-wise for the Mid-
Atlantic as high pressure will build in and settle over the area
through Sunday before eventually moving further offshore by early
next week. Highs will be similar on Saturday and Sunday with upper
80s to even low 90s across the lower elevations and mid to upper 70s
for the mountains. Winds should remain light with high pressure
nearby or overhead as we progress through the weekend. Lows will be
a few degrees cooler Saturday night with low to mid 60s for most
areas. Cannot rule out a few upper 50s along the Allegheny Front.
Sunday night, lows will be generally in the mid to upper 60s to even
some low 70s further east towards the waters.

By Monday, moisture will return to the area from the west as an
upper trough builds in from the Mississippi Valley towards the
area. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
Monday afternoon, especially along and west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains. Highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s for
most locations. Light precipitation chances linger through the
overnight hours with lows in the mid to upper 60s. By Tuesday,
additional shower and thunderstorm chances return with a trough
axis expected to move through the area. Highs may be a degree
or two warmer compared to Monday with increasing southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Lower CIGs and patchy fog likely develop overnight, with the
highest confidence in IFR 8Z-14Z at CHO/MRB. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible midday through
Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Thursday night
through Friday night behind a cold front as winds shift from
W/SW to NW.

VFR conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday with light variable
winds due to high pressure nearby or overhead.
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&&

.MARINE...
Generally light west to southwest winds are expected through
Thursday, though a period of 15-20 kt gusts is likely overnight
over the middle Chesapeake Bay. Winds shift to N/NW behind a
cold front Thursday night into Friday, with SCA level gusts
possible. Winds become lighter later Friday as high pressure
builds in. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours through Thursday,
and may be accompanied by lightning strikes and gusty winds.

Sub-SCA winds are expected for the weekend as high pressure lingers
near the waters. No precipitation is expected during this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southwest winds will keep water levels elevated through Thursday
night, though likely below minor flood stage. Winds will turn to
the north/northwest behind a cold front Thursday night into
Friday resulting in lowering water levels.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ534-543.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF
NEAR TERM...KLW/DHOF
SHORT TERM...DHOF
LONG TERM...ADM
AVIATION...KLW/ADM
MARINE...KLW/ADM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DHOF