Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000 FXUS61 KLWX 290219 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 919 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Strong northwest winds are expected tonight along with much chillier conditions. High pressure returns Thursday through Thursday night with dry and chilly conditions continuing. The high will move offshore Friday with increasing precipitation chances heading into the weekend as an area of low pressure passes to the south. Additional precipitation chances are likely with another front early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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EVENING UPDATE... The bulk of precipitation has made its way out of the area, with only our far eastern zones and the waters still experiencing rain. Skies have begun to clear and temperatures are dropping quickly behind the cold front as high pressure builds in. Gusty winds out of the NW continue tonight with the period of strongest gusts occurring over the next few hours. Afterwards, winds begin to diminish for most of the area overnight, but remain gusty over the higher elevations. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... The strongest winds are most likely from around sunset through the middle of the night due in part to a strong 850 mb low level jet in excess of 50-60 kts+ and strong pressure rises as high pressure builds in. Gusts of 45 to 50 mph can be expected areawide, with gusts close to 60 mph possible at the highest elevations. Lows tonight fall to the upper 20s and low to mid 30s. Mountain locations west of I-81 will crash into the teens and low 20s. Wind chill quickly fall into the teens and 20s Thursday morning with single digit values over the mountains.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Gusty winds diminish a bit Thursday morning, then increase late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. WNW winds gust between 25-30mph for most of the area, with higher gusts in the mountains. High pressure begins to build in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as winds quickly diminish across the area. Dry conditions expected with cooler highs in the 40s to low 50s. Another area of low pressure approaches from the south early Friday, then crosses the Mid-Atlantic Friday afternoon into Friday night. Widespread showers are likely at some point Friday. Milder temperatures in the 50s.&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Heading into the weekend and the first half of next week, mild conditions are expected. This period marks the first full week of March and also of Meteorological Spring. Aloft, a subtle shortwave is set to push toward the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. Depending on how amplified the feature is, there is some potential for weak surface low development off the Delmarva coast. Given all these elements in place, rain will remain in the forecast through at least Saturday afternoon. Some late day clearing is possible depending on how quickly the shield of precipitation exits. In its wake, heights will build through the end of the weekend. While a deep upper low swings through the Northern Plains, broad upper ridging sets up downstream across the eastern third of the U.S. As this occurs, high temperatures rebound back into the low/mid 60s for Sunday. Given a northeast to easterly wind, would not be surprised to see the forecast highs come down by a few degrees. Will maintain a slight chance for rain on Sunday given the close proximity of a stalled boundary to the coast. Heading into the new work week, above average heights persist. This is coupled with a continued weakness that lingers off the Atlantic coast. The position of this boundary keeps an onshore component to the local winds, generally meandering between east and southeasterly. While most of Monday and Tuesday should be dry, there will be a slight chance of showers each day. High temperatures are forecast to hold steady in the mid 60s, possibly nearing 70 degrees close to I-64. Heading up to the mountains, highs should be around 10 degrees cooler. The next big pattern change comes mid-week as the next frontal system pushes through. This cold front would bring a better chance for showers and cooler weather in its wake. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Heading into the weekend and the first half of next week, mild conditions are expected. This period marks the first full week of March and also of Meteorological Spring. Aloft, a subtle shortwave is set to push toward the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. Depending on how amplified the feature is, there is some potential for weak surface low development off the Delmarva coast. Given all these elements in place, rain will remain in the forecast through at least Saturday afternoon. Some late day clearing is possible depending on how quickly the shield of precipitation exits. In its wake, heights will build through the end of the weekend. While a deep upper low swings through the Northern Plains, broad upper ridging sets up downstream across the eastern third of the U.S. As this occurs, high temperatures rebound back into the low/mid 60s for Sunday. Given a northeast to easterly wind, would not be surprised to see the forecast highs come down by a few degrees. Will maintain a slight chance for rain on Sunday given the close proximity of a stalled boundary to the coast. Heading into the new work week, above average heights persist. This is coupled with a continued weakness that lingers off the Atlantic coast. The position of this boundary keeps an onshore component to the local winds, generally meandering between east and southeasterly. While most of Monday and Tuesday should be dry, there will be a slight chance of showers each day. High temperatures are forecast to hold steady in the mid 60s, possibly nearing 70 degrees close to I-64. Heading up to the mountains, highs should be around 10 degrees cooler. The next big pattern change comes mid-week as the next frontal system pushes through. This cold front would bring a better chance for showers and cooler weather in its wake. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A prefrontal surge of showers is overspreading the area early this afternoon, though mostly it is producing light rain and occasional MVFR CIGs. The main activity is going to be late this afternoon and evening. A line of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms is expected to cross the area (currently in western PA) as the cold front sweeps through. Southerly winds continue to gust in the 20kt range. Expect winds to shift to southwest, then quickly to the west and west-northwest behind the cold front. The most likely timing for the line of showers/storms was added as TEMPO groups to the TAFs, and the strongest gusts will occur for 6-8 hours after the front passes. Gusts up to 35-40KT are expected at all terminals. Winds decrease late tonight for a brief period, then increase again Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds into the region during the second half of the day Thursday, with winds quickly diminishing Thursday evening. VFR conditions expected Thursday. Another area of low pressure approaches from the south on Friday, bringing widespread showers and a shift to southerly winds that could gust up to 20kt Friday afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions are possible, though the overall system looks to be weak and unlikely to produce sub-VFR conditions. A chance for rain through Saturday afternoon may yield some restrictions, possibly lingering a bit longer across the D.C. and Baltimore terminals. The passing boundary does stall offshore which will keep a slight chance for rain on Sunday and Monday. However, VFR conditions are likely during that period. Initial northerly winds on Saturday into Sunday afternoon will give way to northeast to easterly flow thereafter. && .MARINE... South to southwest winds continue to increase this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front that crosses the local waters this evening. This front is going to bring a line of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. Winds increase to gale force behind the front this evening into tonight across all of the waters. Winds diminish late tonight, though remain within SCA-levels through Thursday afternoon. High pressure builds during the second half of the day on Thursday, causing winds to drop below SCA conditions by late afternoon. Another area of low pressure approaches from the south on Friday. This is likely to bring showers to the area, though winds are currently forecast to remain below SCA levels through Friday night. Northerly winds will dominate through at least Sunday afternoon before gradually shifting over to northeasterly into the evening and night. Gusts over the waterways should stay under 20 knots, particularly as mild air on top of cool water forms low-level temperature inversions. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for DCZ001. MD...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for MDZ003>006-008-011- 013-014-017-018-503>508. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for MDZ001-501-502. VA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for VAZ025>031-040-053- 054-501-505-506-508-526. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for VAZ503-504-507. WV...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for WVZ050>053-055. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for WVZ503-504-506. High Wind Warning until 5 AM EST Thursday for WVZ501-502-505. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Thursday for ANZ530>534-537>543. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ530>532-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ533- 534-537-541>543. Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Thursday for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ535- 536. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRR/CAS NEAR TERM...CAS/KRR SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...BRO AVIATION...BRO/KRR MARINE...BRO/KRR/EST

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