383
FXUS64 KMAF 151936
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
236 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through this
  evening for Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas.

- Windy conditions continue through early this evening across
  Southeast New Mexico and much of West Texas with westerly to
  northwesterly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

- High winds Monday evening through Tuesday, which will increase
  risk of fire weather and blowing dust.

- No precipitation in the forecast, with cooler temperatures
  during the middle portion of next week followed by another
  warming trend into next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

An upper-level trough continues to progress eastward across West
Texas this afternoon. Strong westerly to northwesterly winds along
the base of this system are spreading across our forecast area
this afternoon. Surface observations indicate that winds are
gusting to 35-45 mph and occasionally up to around 50 mph across
portions of Southeast New Mexico and adjacent portions of West and
Southwest Texas as this stronger belt of low to mid level winds
advances over the region.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect through early this evening
across Southeast New Mexico and areas along and west of the Pecos
River in West and Southwest Texas. We did expand the Wind Advisory
to also include central and southern portions of the Permian
Basin through early this evening where winds have been gusting to
40-50 mph at times. A narrow plume of enhanced mid level moisture
and weak ascent along base of the trough axis could result in some
very light precipitation over portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, but probably only a few sprinkles at best. A few
snowflakes could mix in across the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe Mountains, but we anticipate little to no accumulation.
Winds otherwise gradually come down through the early evening
hours, while clouds also decrease in coverage behind the departing
trough. Overnight lows are forecast to range in the 30s and 40s.

A dry northwesterly flow aloft will prevail tonight into Sunday
before shortwave ridging develops overhead on Sunday night. A
surface lee trough will meanwhile take shape across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas on Sunday. Breezy northwesterly surface
winds Sunday morning gradually decrease and become westerly to
southwesterly by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures on Sunday
will trend warmer in the upper 60s to upper 70s, with lows Sunday
night continuing to range in the 30s and 40s. Mostly clear skies
and dry conditions can be expected Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Deterministic and ensemble models show that the active
tropospheric air pattern persists into the end of next week. No
wetting rains or even substantial PoPs are indicated in forecasts
until at least the end of next week as well, so during any periods
of gusty winds, an increased risk for fire weather and blowing
dust will also be present. Throughout the period, dew point
temperatures remain in the single digit to lower 20s F range
areawide, keeping conditions feeling very dry and with high dew
point depressions, keeping RH near or below critical 15% during
the afternoon and contributing to persistent fire risk. For more
on the fire weather risk for this weekend into next week, read the
Fire Weather Discussion.

Models show a ridge at the surface and aloft continues building
Monday, allowing temperatures to rise 8 to 12 degrees above
average, translating to widespread 80s, mid to upper 70s in higher
elevations, parts of northern Lea County and southeast Permian
Basin, and 90s in the Big Bend. Light southerly winds east of the
western higher terrain and southwesterly winds along and west of
the western higher terrain along developing lee troughing increase
during the afternoon in response to an approaching short wave
trough moving in from the Four Corners. Winds remain gusty Monday
night as the storm system draws closer, keeps lows 10 to 15
degrees above average and ranging from the upper 40s over most of
Lea County, northwest Permian Basin down into Reeves County Plains
and higher foothills of Guadalupes and Davis Mountains into Lower
Trans Pecos, with lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Tuesday, a 500 mb jet streak over SE NM plains into northern
parts of the Permian Basin associated with the short wave trough,
model forecast soundings showing winds as high as 50 knots down to
850 mb accompanied by near dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lower
troposphere and elongated hodographs indicate high winds being a
possibility. NCEP GEFS ensemble, Grand Ensemble, European ENS
ensemble, and NBM all depict a 60% to 80% chance of sustained
winds above 40 mph for Guadalupes into Eddy County Plains mid
morning to early afternoon Tuesday, with these same models
depicting giving a similar 50% to 70% chance of wind gusts greater
than 50 mph and 40% to 60% probability of wind gusts up to at
least 60 mph but only 20% probability for gusts at least 70 mph
over Guadalupes into Eddy County Plains from mid morning to
afternoon Tuesday. NBM indicates gusts up to 80 knots over
Guadalupes but given other models, this may be too high.
Nonetheless, highest winds are expected to setup beneath 500 mb
jet streak and warmest temperatures and local maxima in winds
wherever the low-level thermal ridge (LLTR) sets up. Currently,
probability of these features being co-located is less than 30%
and LLTR in most recent runs has shifted even farther southeast
than previous runs, but this may change as we get closer to next
week. Tuesday under these westerly downsloping winds and LLTR,
highs rise to 12 to 14 degrees above average, translating to mid
to upper 80s, lower to mid 70s higher elevations into western Eddy
County and northern Lea County, and upper 80s to lower 90s from
eastern Stockton Plateau into southern Rio Grande basins. In NCEP
GEFS and Canadians GEPS, a 40% to 60% chance of highs greater than
90F from southern Terrell County into Big Bend are also present,
although NBM is showing highs up to the century mark in the Big
Bend. We will see how temperatures pan out, but given past
observations in comparison to forecasts, reaching the triple
digits is not out of the question Tuesday even as high winds will
be the more prominent risk. With high winds, widespread blowing
dust from the Davis into Guadalupes Mountains, down into
surrounding foothills, and into SE NM plains are also forecast,
with patchy blowing dust for the rest of the forecast area.

A fast moving surface cold front accompanying the short wave
trough leads to winds shifting to northwesterly, allowing for CAA
and dropping lows close to average Tuesday night, meaning mid to
upper 30s higher elevations into northern Lea County and northwest
Permian Basin, and lower to mid 40s elsewhere apart from lower
50s Big Bend into Terrell County. A reinforcing cold front
dropping in from the north drops temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
below average Wednesday and Wednesday night - translating to highs
mostly in the lower to mid 60s, mid to upper 50s higher
elevations and northern Lea County, and lower to mid 70s Rio
Grande basins for highs, and mid to upper 30s, upper 20s to lower
30s basins of Culberson County, peaks of Davis Mountains and Lower
Trans Pecos as well as northern Lea County into northwest Permian
Basin, and lower to mid 40s Rio Grande basins. Highs remain 5
degrees below average Thursday but warm into the upper 60s to mid
70s, upper 70s to lower 80s Big Bend as weak ridging builds in
aloft. Lows Thursday night stay 5 degrees above average and in the
40s, mid 30s usual cooler spots, as ridging and near surface
winds veering to southeasterly/southerly maintain WAA overnight.
Weak ridging persists into the end of next week, maintaining
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average. Widespread upper 70s
to lower 80s return by Friday and next Saturday, as well as lows
in the lower to mid 50s in warmer spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

VFR conditions will remain prevalent across the region through the
TAF period. West to northwest winds sustained between 20-30 knots
with gusts up to 35-40 knots will continue through the afternoon
before gradually diminishing to 10-15 knots by early this evening.
Patchy blowing dust may obscure visibility at times this afternoon,
but confidence in occurrence of MVFR or lower visibility
restrictions at the local TAF sites remained low enough to keep
mention out of the terminal forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Dry, northwest flow aloft in wake of yesterday`s trough continues
today. Subsidence behind the trough maintains 20-ft winds above
20 mph, mainly southwest of the Pecos River. These gusty winds and
min RH and ERCs above the 75th percentile areawide, but min RH
remaining above critical 15% and cooler temperatures near 10
degrees below average for mid March yield RFTIs 4 to 5 along and
southwest of the Pecos River, highest RFTIs in the Big Bend where
temperatures will be warmest. Consequently, a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement is in effect through this evening along and
southwest of the Pecos River.

Poor overnight recovery, min RH below critical 15% areawide, but
lighter winds as high pressure settles in are forecast Sunday,
which due to high ERCs from extremely dry fuels, will result in
another Rangeland Fire Danger Statement being issued for Sunday.
Monday, as ridging aloft continues to build and temperatures
increase up to 10 degrees above average, continued poor overnight
recovery and min RH below critical, coupled with increasing 20-ft
winds from development of lee troughing from Southeast New Mexico
Plains down into West Texas and return flow - all combine to again
produce critical fire weather conditions. Best overlap of min RH
and winds yielding RFTIs 6 to 7 Monday are forecast over higher
elevations of Guadalupe and Davis Mountains as well as central and
eastern Permian Basin.

Warmer than average temperatures 12 to 14 degrees above average
Tuesday and increasing 20-ft winds above 20 miles per hour for
most of the area will increase fire risk again. Additionally,
models are showing a low-level thermal ridge (LLTR) extending
southwest to northeast over central portions of West Texas nearly
co-located with a 500 mb jet streak over Southeast New Mexico,
along with min RH below critical, and existing ERCs remaining
above the 75th percentile, closer to 90th to 96th percentile
southwest of the Pecos River - which will all yield RFTIs 7 to 8,
with earlier runs showing near historical RFTIs of 8 to 9
southwest of Davis Mountains into the Presidio Valley. Tuesday
therefore continues to stand out as a potential critical to
extreme fire weather day. Despite decreasing 20-ft winds after
Tuesday and cooler than average temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday, near critical to critical fire weather continues for the
rest of next week as fuels remain very dry from lack of wetting
rains, and min RH below critical and poor overnight recovery
persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               38  72  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 38  72  38  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   46  78  46  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            43  72  47  86 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           34  61  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    36  68  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    31  66  33  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     39  72  43  81 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   40  71  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  73  38  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Central
     Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-Ector-
     Glasscock-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-
     Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...21