000
FXUS64 KMAF 031015
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
515 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

The upper-level ridge that has kept the area high and dry holds out
for one more day. Today will be characterized by more of the same
with high temperatures in the 80s for most and high cirrus clouds
across the region. Similarly, morning low temperatures Tuesday
remain in the 50s for the majority. By Tuesday afternoon, a large
mid-level shortwave trough sweeps into the Midwest with a weaker
wave rounding the southern periphery into the Four Corners. This
southern trough will result in increasing cloud cover across the
entire area. In addition, increasing low-level moisture and synoptic
ascent should aide in isolated thunderstorm development across the
favored higher terrain and adjacent plains. The rest of the region
continues their dry streak, unfortunately. Temperatures remain
within a degree or two of Monday during the afternoon as well. Even
though not everyone will benefit from rain, the cooler temperatures
are appreciated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

The extended features better chances for rain and cooler
temperatures, especially as we head into next weekend.

A trough will move across the Upper MS River Valley midweek, but
leave a piece behind over the SW U.S. This weak trough will linger
to our west much of the extended. This will lead to at least
isolated showers and storms each afternoon through the end of the
week, mainly over the western half of our CWA. A weak cold front is
expected to push through Wednesday, but does very little to affect
temperatures. Most locations will see highs in the low to mid 80s
with lows in the 50`s all week.

The combination of the trough to our west moving closer and another
front Friday will bring cooler temperatures this weekend along with
a better chance of rain. We could see highs only in the 70s this
weekend for many locations bringing a little taste of fall!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CDT Mon Oct 3 2022

VFR with southeast winds picking up to around 10 kts this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 82  54  81  57 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                   81  59  83  59 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Stockton            82  57  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           74  56  73  55 /  10  10  30  40
Hobbs                    81  54  81  55 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                    78  48  78  49 /  10   0  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     82  56  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   82  56  82  58 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     83  57  83  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29