000
FXUS64 KMAF 152311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

VFR and SKC over the next 24 hours. Northerly winds will slowly
shift to E/SE overnight, remaining light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

A cold front has progressed through the region bringing cooler
temperatures and a breezy north wind today. The pressure gradient
will progress through the area by this afternoon settling a sfc high
pressure over the Caprock. Therefore, Saturday morning`s low
temperatures are forecasted to reach the mid 30s to low 40s across
the region. Clear skies and strong radiational cooling will aid in
temperatures nearing freezing on the Caprock tomorrow morning.
Therefore, a Freeze Warning has been issued for Northern Lea County.
Freezing temperatures could impact local agriculture. Saturday
afternoon temperatures are forecasted to stay in the upper 60s to
low 70s across the area. In addition Saturday night low temperatures
look to increase a few degrees however, sfc high pressure will
linger prompting another night of strong radiational cooling. No
precipitation forecasted in the short-term at this time. Fall
temperatures are here!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through  Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

The long term forecast remains relatively unchanged and benign.
Sunday, return flow having resumed, thicknesses will begin
increasing, but afternoon highs will still come in at or below
normal.  Sunday night, a large upper Pac trough will make landfall
on the west coast, nudging the ridge east and putting West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow aloft.  Farther east,
leeside troughing will commence on the Front Range, inducing a
westerly downslope wind component out west.  This will assist
increasing thicknesses in pumping temps up to well-above normal
Monday and Tuesday, w/Tuesday being the warmest day this forecast as
afternoon highs top out 5-10F above normal.  During this time, the
aforementioned trough is forecast to swing through the central
Rockies, to SD/NB by 12Z Wednesday.  This feature will drop a cold
front into the area Wednesday, affecting mainly the northern zones.
CAA will continue into Thursday/Friday, but temps should stay above
normal.  Lows will bump along above normal after Sunday night.

As far as rain goes, long-term models suggest isolated -SHRA will be
possible over the Presidio valley/Marfa Plateau Monday evening as
the trough passes to the north, then isolated thunder Thursday
Friday as the cold front moves in.  The GFS is forecasting a toad
strangler during this time, but the other long term models are not,
so we`ll stick closer to the relatively dry NBM for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               40  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 39  70  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   50  72  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            43  70  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           41  62  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    37  69  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    35  66  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     40  70  43  72 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   42  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     40  72  43  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 7 AM MDT Saturday for Northern Lea
     County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...88