Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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915 ACUS11 KWNS 011714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011714 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011845- Mesoscale Discussion 1532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025 Areas affected...parts of Mississippi...Alabama...and far eastern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011714Z - 011845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Strong morning insolation has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 80s amid a very moist boundary layer, characterized by dew point temperatures into the mid 70s F. This has resulted in destabilization of the environment, yielding 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Visible satellite/radar is now indicating scattered convection developing across the region. The expectation is for storms to continue developing, maturing into the afternoon hours while spreading southeast with time. Weak deep-layer shear will limit storm organization, but given appreciable low-level lapse rates (approaching 8 C/km) and the aforementioned moist environment, periodic strong/water-loaded downdrafts can be expected with this activity, resulting in isolated wind damage throughout the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30769023 31609087 32699075 33569008 33968949 34378826 34618725 34278614 33428547 32118571 31698602 31188685 30448889 30769023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH