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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190541
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
141 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

No notable forecast changes made with the evening update. The dry
and benign weather continues tonight with near average low
temperatures expected (ranging from the lower 60s near the Lake to
the low 70s near the east coast).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The western Atlantic surface high continues to play the dominate
roll in stable atmospheric conditions to wrap up the remainder of
the week. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will veer and
allow for a more distinct southeastward wind flow. With this
assistance, it will allow for more tropical moisture and an
increase in warm air. The warming trend will continue tomorrow
afternoon with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s along the
coasts with the potential for low 90s in the far SW interior. Far
interior RH values will drop into the mid to upper 30%, but weak
wind speeds should help keep the conditions from red flag/fire wx
concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Mid level ridging will slowly start to break down as the weekend
progresses. At the same time, a surface area of high pressure will
continue to shift eastward in the Atlantic. This will allow for
dry conditions to remain in place during this time frame. Winds
will slowly become more southerly across the area as the weekend
progresses allowing for moderating temperatures on Saturday and
Sunday. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid to
upper 80s along the coasts to the lower 90s across the interior
and Lake Okeechobee region.

The weather pattern will start to change across South Florida
early next week as a deepening mid level trough pushes across the
Southeast and into the western Atlantic on Monday into Monday
night. At the surface, a frontal boundary will push southeastward
through Northern and Central Florida during the day on Monday.
This front will be weakening as it pushes further south and this
may cause it to stall out just to the north of the area or right
over South Florida heading into Monday night and into the middle
of the week. With the frontal boundary nearby, this may provide
just enough lift to support a chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms during this time frame. The highest
chances of showers and storms still look to remain over the Lake
Okeechobee region and Palm Beach County.

With this being a rather weak front, uncertainty remains high in
regard to the location of the frontal boundary stalling out and if
it will remain in tact or not before actually getting to South
Florida. A weaker frontal boundary will support lower chances of
shower and thunderstorm development during this time frame. The
latest forecast takes a blend of the forecast models and keeps a
chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across northern
areas during the early and middle portion of the week. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High
temperatures will generally remain on the warm side as they will
rise into the mid to upper 80s along the coasts and into the lower
90s across the interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR through the period with light and variable wind overnight.
Wind will pick up out of the SE after sunrise. A Gulf sea breeze
will bring westerly to southwesterly flow to APF by the afternoon.
Wind will lighten and become variable after sunset.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The winds will remain southeasterly and weaken to wrap up the
week as the surface high continues to shift eastward. Seas will
generally remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A moderate rip current threat will linger along the Atlantic
beaches today with a diminishing trend to close out the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Miami            86  71  87  71 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     87  67  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        88  70  89  71 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        85  69  87  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  84  71  86  71 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  85  71  87  71 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   88  71  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  86  68  88  69 /   0   0  10   0
Boca Raton       86  69  88  70 /   0   0  10   0
Naples           86  69  87  71 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...RAG