-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
825
FXUS62 KMFL 131141
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Surface high pressure today sets up over the northeastern Gulf with
large scale ridging present across the eastern half of the country.
Simultaneously, a broad area of low pressure is expected to
strengthen off the coast of the Carolinas and begin advecting
southwestward toward the Florida Peninsula. This feature is expected
to approach south-central Florida by tonight into Monday and forces
the surface high pressure towards the western Gulf. The low will be
more directly over the peninsula later on Monday and going into
Monday night. PWATs for the short term forecast period are expected
on average in the 1.9-2.2" range and as the broad low pressure
strengthens and approaches the area, these values will rise to the
range of 2.0-2.4", which is above the 90th percentile values.

With the surface high in the eastern Gulf and the low pressure area
off the coast of the Carolinas, the deep layer flow pattern will be
out of a N-NW direction on the east side of the high on Sunday and
on the western side of the low on Monday. 500mb temps will still
range between -8 to -9C the next two days, suggesting that there is
enough unstable air for some stronger storms to form (average 500mb
temps at this time of year are typically -6 to -7C). SBCAPE across
most of the region is modeled in the 2000-3000 J/kg range as well.
This suggests that a few of these storms on Sunday could become near-
severe or marginally severe once again. With deep layer N-NW flow,
the diurnal sea breezes will still be able to advance inland,
causing the strongest convergence over the interior. Therefore, the
strongest storms of the day are more likely to form closer to the
Lake O region and other interior portions of South Florida. However,
the deep layer N-NW steering flow could help initially form
storms closer to the east coast metro and/or disperse some of the
stronger storms over the interior closer to the coastlines. East
coast metro areas will be more likely to see storms in the earlier
afternoon to early evening hours and the Gulf coast more likely
in the mid to late evening. Monday will largely be a similar setup
except the fact that the area of low pressure in the low to mid
levels will continue to advect closer to the region.

While there is a risk for a couple of marginally severe storms on
Sunday and Monday, the primary threat for this setup looks to be
periods of steady and heavy rainfall given an overall lack of
significant wind flow in the atmospheric column. This could lead
to stagnant showers and storms as well as training convection,
plus chances for cold pools and associated outflow boundaries to
spark additional showers and storms over the same areas. Latest
HREF LPMM pinpoints 3-5" or so over the interior sections of South
Florida and 2-4" over portions of the east coast metro for
Sunday. If these amounts occur in a short duration of time,
localized flooding will be possible. With this in mind, the
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) still maintains a marginal risk
(level 1 of 4 and a general 5% chance of rainfall exceeding FFG)
for excessive rainfall for the eastern half of the CWA. On Monday
with the disturbance arriving and PWATs rising above the 90th
percentile, WPC has a slight risk (level 2 of 4 and a general 15%
chance of rainfall exceeding FFG) across all of South Florida.

High temperatures today are expected in the low to mid 90s and
slightly "cooler" on Monday in the mid to upper 80s as increased
cloud cover from the disturbance minimizes temperature rises.
Overnight lows Sunday night will range from the low 70s near Lake O
and central interior to the mid to upper 70s closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The area of low pressure advecting into the region early in the week
will continue to slowly advect through the Peninsula and into the
western Gulf by the Wednesday to Wednesday night time frame. Because
of the slow-moving nature of this disturbance, excessive rainfall
will remain a possibility each day early this week and through the
mid-week period. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall on
Tuesday and a marginal risk on Wednesday, which being several days
out highlights a high confidence in the potential for this
disturbance to produce impactful rainfall. The exact details will be
refined in the next couple of days on rainfall totals, but currently
QPF is forecasted at a general 1-2" across the region for Tuesday
through Tuesday night and a high-end potential in excess of 2-3".
However, localized higher amounts are possible that could lead to
flooding concerns.

The low pressure is forecast to move slowly west and reach the
central Gulf during the second half of next week. In its wake, high
pressure should then rebuild from the western Atlantic across the
Florida peninsula. The resultant E/SE wind flow will begin to bring
PoPs closer to climatological normals but still a bit on the high
side, with a return to a typical east or southeast flow and
diurnally driven precipitation.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has also forecast a 20% chance
of cyclone formation for this disturbance as it moves into the
eastern Gulf and further into the western Gulf. Will continue to
monitor the latest outlooks from NHC in the coming days on this
disturbance.

High temperatures each day through Wednesday will be in the mid to
upper 80s, which is slightly cooler due to the upcoming abundant
cloud cover and widespread rain showers and storms. Temperatures
will be rebounding later in the week back into the low 90s for most
areas by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR conditions will generally prevail through around 18Z. Winds
will be light and variable through much of the forecast period,
with a brief uptick in SE winds around 5 kts for east coast
terminals Sunday afternoon. However, they still will often be
variable despite the slight increase in wind speeds. KAPF will
likely experience westerly winds after 16-17Z with the Gulf
breeze moving inland. Periods of MVFR/IFR are possible after
18-20Z with showers and thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A light to gentle variable wind flow is expected across the local
waters for Sunday and Monday, but will be trending southwesterly for
the Atlantic waters Sunday night into Monday as a disturbance
approaches. By mid-week, winds are projected to increase out of the
south-southeast for the Atlantic. For the Gulf, winds increase out
of the northwest to a gentle flow on Monday and veer southerly for
the mid-week period. Seas across all of the local waters will
generally remain at 2 feet or less for the next several days.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the local waters each day, which can cause locally higher
winds and seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Broad low/mid level cyclonic flow around the disturbance, combined
with the very high moisture values, will result in periods of
rainfall at most times of the day, not just during peak diurnal
cycles.

The wind flow on Monday will be light due to a northerly in the
upper levels and a light southerly flow at the surface. The 500 mb
temp will also be around -4 to -5C which is warm for this time of
year. This means that there could be nearly stationary showers and
thunderstorms on Monday over South Florida which will exceed 1 inch
over most of the area, with high-end amounts in excess of 3 inches,
in some areas perhaps quite a bit higher. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook is currently showing a slight risk of flooding over South
Florida for Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday`s rainfall amounts could be similar, if not
even higher in some areas, as the wind flow shifts to S/SE direction
allowing for deep tropical moisture to work into the region keeping
the very high moisture values in place. WPC`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook has put South Florida in a Slight Risk Of Flooding for
Tuesday and Marginal Risk of Flooding for Wednesday.

At this time, it looks like rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with
locally higher amounts up to 6 inches are possible through
Wednesday. There could even be higher amounts with the storms train
or sit over the same area. If these trends continue in later
forecast through the weekend, but a Flood Watch may be needed for
South Florida for early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  76  87  75 /  80  70  80  60
West Kendall     91  73  87  72 /  80  60  80  50
Opa-Locka        94  76  89  75 /  80  70  90  50
Homestead        90  75  87  74 /  80  70  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  91  75  87  75 /  80  70  90  50
N Ft Lauderdale  92  75  87  75 /  80  70  90  50
Pembroke Pines   95  78  90  77 /  80  70  80  50
West Palm Beach  92  74  87  74 /  80  70  80  40
Boca Raton       93  74  89  74 /  80  70  90  50
Naples           91  77  89  75 /  70  50  90  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...ATV