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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMFL 042340
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
640 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...
Generally VFR through the period with NW to N flow overnight.
Wind will becoming NE as the day progresses on Friday along the
east coast terminals with a potential sea breeze along the Gulf
turning APF westerly. Cannot rule out some sub-VFR impacts from
brief bouts of low cigs or low vsbys due to smoke from area fires.
Confidence is too low to include any restrictions currently but
short-fused amendments may be necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 426 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021)

UPDATE...
Quick update to add mention of patchy smoke over portions of
Southwest Florida, Everglades National Park (particularly Cape
Sable), and far southern Miami-Dade County from fires across the
area this afternoon. Received a spotter report of particulates
from smoke aloft lowering visibility in the Naples area. Southwest
Florida International Airport (KRSW) was reporting 8 miles of
visibility and smoke, which fits the smoke plumes observable on
radar and satellite imagery well. Also updated the graphical HWO,
zones, and coastals to depict this change.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 258 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021)

.Pleasant Weather through Friday then Wet Day Saturday...
.Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions Return Late Weekend...

SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Friday)...

A ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Central Gulf
Coast will continue to build into South Florida during the remainder
of today. This will allow for the continued advection of a dry
continental airmass into South Florida. The 12z MFL sounding had a
precipitable water value of only 0.59 inches; 10% of the moving
average for this date according to sounding climatology.

Elsewhere, a weak surface trough is currently located over the
Northwest Bahamas and may bring isolated Atlantic showers that
may brush the Atlantic coast this afternoon as it slowly moves
southwards. Due to the increasing influence of high pressure, winds
will shift from the northwest this afternoon to northerly
tonight before becoming NE to ENE tomorrow afternoon. This will
keep maximum temperatures during the short-term period in the
upper 70s and low 80s across South Florida, with overnight
temperatures ranging from the low 50s across the Lake Okeechobee
region, the mid to upper 50s along the Gulf Coast, and the low 60s
along the Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...

Strong mid-upper level trough and associated surface inflection
and cold front will enter the central/eastern GOMEX early
Saturday morning, then pushing across the FL peninsula by the
afternoon hours. Pre-frontal precip is expected during the
morning, though models agree that the bulk of activity will be
during the afternoon through evening hours. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated storms are expected with this very quick
frontal system. Consensus continues to keep better dynamics to
the north of the CWA though a strong storm or two can`t be ruled
out, especially near the Lake Region and Palm Beach County area
with steepening mid-level lapse rates and cold 500 mb temps
(around -13 to -15 degrees C). Fortunately low-level shear doesn`t
look too supportive so that will help hinder severe storm
development.

Highest PoPs Saturday continue to favor the Lake Region and Palm
Beach County (near 80 percent), with eastern Broward County in a
close second (76 to 80 percent). The rest of South FL has rain
chances in the 50 to 60 percent range. By Saturday night, the bulk
of convection/showers looks to be in the Atlantic waters, quickly
progressing eastward and away from the area.

Sunday is a completely different weather story as high pressure
swoops in, with mostly dry conditions expected. A tight pressure
gradient in the wake of the front will allow for blustery N winds.
This will also translate into hazardous marine/beach conditions
for Sunday through early next week as it takes time for the
gradient to relax.

Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast
through the extended period.

TL;DR Wet Saturday expected, then breezy and mostly dry conditions
Sunday through early/mid next week.

MARINE...
As a weak cold front continues to exit our region, a ridge of
high pressure will move into our region from the northwest today.
Continued elevated winds and seas in the wake of the weak cold
front will continue into the overnight hours. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through tonight for the northern Atlantic
waters.

An approaching frontal system this weekend may bring hazardous seas
and unsettled weather this weekend. Locally hazardous marine
conditions could occur in shower and thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER...
As a weak cold front continues to exit the region, a ridge of
high pressure will work into the region. Drier air will continue
to move into the region bringing area-wide RH values in the low to
mid 40s this afternoon. Tomorrow, the lowest RH values will be
across the western portion of South Florida, with mid to upper 30s
RH values possible across portions of Glades, Highlands, and
Collier counties. Aside from the drier air, the ridge of high
pressure will also allow for winds across our area to shift from
the northwest this afternoon, to the north tonight, and then to
the east northeast by tomorrow.

Dry weather continues through the end of the work week with an
notable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday.

BEACHES...
There is a moderate risk of rip current for Palm Beach county
beaches today. An elevated risk of rip currents for all Atlantic
beaches may occur this weekend due to increased seas and winds due
to an approaching frontal system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            62  79  67  77 /  10  20  20  70
West Kendall     60  81  65  78 /  10  10  20  60
Opa-Locka        60  79  65  76 /  10  20  20  70
Homestead        60  79  65  77 /  10  10  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  63  79  67  77 /  10  20  20  80
N Ft Lauderdale  62  77  67  75 /  10  20  20  80
Pembroke Pines   61  79  65  77 /  10  20  20  80
West Palm Beach  61  77  65  74 /  10  10  10  80
Boca Raton       62  79  66  77 /  10  20  10  80
Naples           57  80  63  75 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.

&&

$$

Update/Aviation...RAG

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