Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000 FXUS62 KMFL 202344 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 744 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021 .AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... With the exception of a brief period of MVFR ceilings at PBI and APF in the morning hours, VFR should prevail outside of thunderstorms through the TAF. Shower coverage will begin increasing pre-dawn and then spread southward with an advancing cold front through the afternoon. Due to the forecast scattered nature of the storm coverage, VCTS/PROB30 are the highest confidence indicated in the TAF. && .UPDATE... Anvil clouds over south Florida from the large area of convection in the Gulf today set up a differential heating boundary across south-central Florida. This boundary was a focus for convection this afternoon, spreading north into a more unstable airmass free of cloud-cover ahead of an approaching cold front. So, with a lack of a surface forcing mechanism overnight - quiet weather is expected. Near sunrise, hi-res guidance depicts outflow from the Gulf convection interacting with the front along the southwest coast of Florida. This will trigger shower and isolated storm development in the early morning hours, that will eventually spread inland and southward with frontal passage during the day tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 322 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021) SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)... A quasi-stationary frontal boundary continues to remain in place across the Florida Peninsula just to the north of our area. Ample and abundant moisture continues to be advected into our region courtesy of southwesterly flow associated with our position south of the stalled frontal boundary. The convergence occurring along the frontal boundary along with the continued advection of warm moist air into the region has allowed for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop offshore in the Gulf of Mexico along the stalled frontal boundary. These showers and thunderstorms have been propagating northeastwards towards the Gulf Coast of South Florida over the last several hours. During the afternoon hours, these showers and thunderstorms may move inland across portions of the Gulf coast and the Lake Okeechobee region bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and isolated strong wind gusts. A large amount of mid to upper level clouds will continue to stream over South Florida this afternoon. This will help to somewhat limit diurnal heating. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the middle to upper 80s across South Florida before temperatures dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)... The residual frontal boundary will still be across southern portions of the CWFA Wednesday Night into Thursday. This front should continue to slowly drift a bit southward out of our area late on Thursday. The upper level flow pattern tries to transition to a more dry west-northwest flow later Thursday and Friday, which will help limit rainfall. However, with the proximity of the front close, can`t rule out low end POPs through the end of the week, especially along and south of Alligator Alley and southern Atlantic metro. Going into the weekend, a more robust storm is projected to develop across the Red River Valley and deepen as it moves eastward toward the Mississippi River Valley. This will transition the surface flow to a more southerly direction and kick the aforementioned front back northward away from our region. In fact, outside of a rogue shower or two, Saturday and much of Sunday looks dry as the storm system tracks well north of our region. The trailing frontal boundary will; however, begin to sag southward to around the I4 corridor then stalling early next week, slightly increasing POPs again through the end of the forecast period. As far as temperatures go, with the increased rain chances and cloud cover early in the period, daytime temps will be held down just a bit, but should begin to rebound later this week with at least some clearing taking place. Low level flow will transition to a more easterly direction so the interior and southwest will likely be the warmest on Saturday before low level flow transitions southwesterly once again ahead of the next front early next week. Sunday appears to be the warmest day with many locations approaching or exceeding 90 degrees. AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Shower and Thunderstorm activity currently across the Gulf Waters may propagate eastwards into the Gulf coast and the Interior of South Florida during the next several hours. MVFR and IFR conditions are possible as this activity moves northeastwards across South Florida. Gusty southwesterly flow should begin to gradually subside during the late evening hours before becoming variable and light overnight. MARINE... A cold front currently stalled across the Florida Peninsula continues to bring active weather to South Florida area waters today. Showers and thunderstorms that develop over the coastal waters during the next few days may bring locally hazardous seas with periods of gusty winds. BEACHES... A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues today for all the Palm Beaches. An elevated risk of Rip Currents is possible later this week into this weekend for Atlantic beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 84 69 84 / 30 60 30 20 West Kendall 74 85 68 86 / 30 50 30 20 Opa-Locka 75 84 67 84 / 30 60 30 20 Homestead 72 85 68 84 / 30 50 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 72 84 69 83 / 40 60 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 73 84 69 82 / 40 70 30 20 Pembroke Pines 74 84 68 84 / 30 60 30 20 West Palm Beach 69 84 66 82 / 60 70 20 20 Boca Raton 71 83 68 82 / 50 60 20 20 Naples 72 81 64 85 / 70 60 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation...Harrigan Tonight/Wednesday and Marine...Hadi/CWC Wednesday Night through Tuesday...Frye Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

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