Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000 FXUS62 KMFL 042340 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 640 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .AVIATION(00Z TAFS)... Generally VFR through the period with NW to N flow overnight. Wind will becoming NE as the day progresses on Friday along the east coast terminals with a potential sea breeze along the Gulf turning APF westerly. Cannot rule out some sub-VFR impacts from brief bouts of low cigs or low vsbys due to smoke from area fires. Confidence is too low to include any restrictions currently but short-fused amendments may be necessary. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 426 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021) UPDATE... Quick update to add mention of patchy smoke over portions of Southwest Florida, Everglades National Park (particularly Cape Sable), and far southern Miami-Dade County from fires across the area this afternoon. Received a spotter report of particulates from smoke aloft lowering visibility in the Naples area. Southwest Florida International Airport (KRSW) was reporting 8 miles of visibility and smoke, which fits the smoke plumes observable on radar and satellite imagery well. Also updated the graphical HWO, zones, and coastals to depict this change. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 258 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021) .Pleasant Weather through Friday then Wet Day Saturday... .Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions Return Late Weekend... SHORT TERM (Rest of Today through Friday)... A ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Central Gulf Coast will continue to build into South Florida during the remainder of today. This will allow for the continued advection of a dry continental airmass into South Florida. The 12z MFL sounding had a precipitable water value of only 0.59 inches; 10% of the moving average for this date according to sounding climatology. Elsewhere, a weak surface trough is currently located over the Northwest Bahamas and may bring isolated Atlantic showers that may brush the Atlantic coast this afternoon as it slowly moves southwards. Due to the increasing influence of high pressure, winds will shift from the northwest this afternoon to northerly tonight before becoming NE to ENE tomorrow afternoon. This will keep maximum temperatures during the short-term period in the upper 70s and low 80s across South Florida, with overnight temperatures ranging from the low 50s across the Lake Okeechobee region, the mid to upper 50s along the Gulf Coast, and the low 60s along the Atlantic coast. LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Strong mid-upper level trough and associated surface inflection and cold front will enter the central/eastern GOMEX early Saturday morning, then pushing across the FL peninsula by the afternoon hours. Pre-frontal precip is expected during the morning, though models agree that the bulk of activity will be during the afternoon through evening hours. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms are expected with this very quick frontal system. Consensus continues to keep better dynamics to the north of the CWA though a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out, especially near the Lake Region and Palm Beach County area with steepening mid-level lapse rates and cold 500 mb temps (around -13 to -15 degrees C). Fortunately low-level shear doesn`t look too supportive so that will help hinder severe storm development. Highest PoPs Saturday continue to favor the Lake Region and Palm Beach County (near 80 percent), with eastern Broward County in a close second (76 to 80 percent). The rest of South FL has rain chances in the 50 to 60 percent range. By Saturday night, the bulk of convection/showers looks to be in the Atlantic waters, quickly progressing eastward and away from the area. Sunday is a completely different weather story as high pressure swoops in, with mostly dry conditions expected. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will allow for blustery N winds. This will also translate into hazardous marine/beach conditions for Sunday through early next week as it takes time for the gradient to relax. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast through the extended period. TL;DR Wet Saturday expected, then breezy and mostly dry conditions Sunday through early/mid next week. MARINE... As a weak cold front continues to exit our region, a ridge of high pressure will move into our region from the northwest today. Continued elevated winds and seas in the wake of the weak cold front will continue into the overnight hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight for the northern Atlantic waters. An approaching frontal system this weekend may bring hazardous seas and unsettled weather this weekend. Locally hazardous marine conditions could occur in shower and thunderstorm activity. FIRE WEATHER... As a weak cold front continues to exit the region, a ridge of high pressure will work into the region. Drier air will continue to move into the region bringing area-wide RH values in the low to mid 40s this afternoon. Tomorrow, the lowest RH values will be across the western portion of South Florida, with mid to upper 30s RH values possible across portions of Glades, Highlands, and Collier counties. Aside from the drier air, the ridge of high pressure will also allow for winds across our area to shift from the northwest this afternoon, to the north tonight, and then to the east northeast by tomorrow. Dry weather continues through the end of the work week with an notable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday. BEACHES... There is a moderate risk of rip current for Palm Beach county beaches today. An elevated risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches may occur this weekend due to increased seas and winds due to an approaching frontal system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 62 79 67 77 / 10 20 20 70 West Kendall 60 81 65 78 / 10 10 20 60 Opa-Locka 60 79 65 76 / 10 20 20 70 Homestead 60 79 65 77 / 10 10 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 63 79 67 77 / 10 20 20 80 N Ft Lauderdale 62 77 67 75 / 10 20 20 80 Pembroke Pines 61 79 65 77 / 10 20 20 80 West Palm Beach 61 77 65 74 / 10 10 10 80 Boca Raton 62 79 66 77 / 10 20 10 80 Naples 57 80 63 75 / 0 0 10 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ650-670. GM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation...RAG Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

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