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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291115
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
615 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

Wednesday will see the drier air remain over the Florida Peninsula
and northerly winds keeping cooler air in place as we are
essentially due south of the surface high pressure center in the
southeastern U.S. As this surface high advects eastward into the
Atlantic on Thursday, winds will shift to an easterly direction and
we will start to see some moisture returning due to a mid-to-upper
level ridge amplifying and starting to push northward from the
Caribbean. With the region still being dominated by high pressure
and most of the deeper moisture advection holding off until near the
weekend, both Wednesday and Thursday are expected to stay dry but
with increasing cloud cover on Thursday. Temperatures will stay on
the cooler side in the 70s for Wednesday and then increase on
Thursday into the low 80s as warm air advection begins.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

High pressure centered off to the north will continue to shift
into the western Atlantic through the end of the week. While
mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday, this will
cause the wind to gradually shift and become east southeasterly
during this time frame. The wind shift will also usher in a
warming trend as high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to
around 80 on Thursday. Friday`s high temperatures will rise into
the lower 80s across the east coast to the mid 80s across interior
portions of Southwest Florida.

Heading into the upcoming weekend, a mid level ridge will push
northward towards the region from the Carribean. This will allow
for the east to southeasterly wind flow to continue along with
the warming trend with temperatures. At the same time, a frontal
boundary will slowly push through the Southeastern portion of the
country and into Northern and Central Florida on Saturday and
Sunday. While South Florida will remain in the warm sector
throughout the weekend, moisture advection will be taking place
during this time frame. While many areas will remain dry through
the weekend, there will be a slight chance of showers along the
breeze mainly over eastern areas. High temperatures on Saturday
and Sunday will generally range from the mid 80s along the east
coast to the upper 80s over interior portions of Southwest
Florida.

The latest guidance remains in disagreement with handling the
timing and intensity of the front off to the north early next
week. While models generally agree in pushing the front through
South Florida, the timing differences are still rather significant
as some of the models push it through on Monday, and others push
it through a day or two later. Since this is towards the end of
the forecast period combined with the disagreement in guidance,
uncertainty remains rather high for this time frame. The latest
forecast takes a blend of the models and keeps a slight chance of
showers in the forecast for early next week with warm temperatures
continuing. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

VFR conditions prevail through the period with mainly dry
conditions expected. Northerly winds will begin to veer more
northeasterly this evening and easterly by Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

A moderate northerly wind flow continues on Wednesday which will
shift to an easterly direction on Thursday and eventually
southeasterly by Friday. Seas of 3-4ft are expected in the Atlantic
for the next couple days and 2-3ft in the Gulf.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 207 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through Wednesday
for the Atlantic beaches, with a high risk likely by the end of the
week as the wind flow becomes more easterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  64  79  71 /   0   0   0  10
West Kendall     76  61  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        77  63  80  70 /   0   0   0  10
Homestead        76  64  80  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  76  65  79  71 /   0   0   0  10
N Ft Lauderdale  76  64  79  70 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   76  63  80  70 /   0   0   0  10
West Palm Beach  75  62  78  69 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       76  64  79  70 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           73  56  81  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Simmons