Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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088
FXUS62 KMFL 150018
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
718 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

Midday surface observations show the leading edge of a broad and
diffuse frontal boundary extending from northern Palm Beach County
to the Naples area, marked by NE winds north of this leading edge
to SE winds to the south. Because the thermal boundary is farther
to the north across Central Florida, there is enough instability
and convergence for scattered showers along and north of the
aforementioned zone. SPC mesoanalysis graphics show surface-based
CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg across this area this afternoon,
with HREF/NBM-based guidance indicating values in the 1000-1700
j/kg range. This will support continued development of scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two for the remainder of
the afternoon, with PoPs in the 20-30% range north of a West Palm
Beach to Naples line. Due to abundant mid/upper level dry
air/stability across the region courtesy of high pressure aloft
over the western Bahamas and Straits of Florida, deep/strong
convection will be very hard to come by, so any thunderstorms that
do develop should remain below strong levels. Elsewhere, PoPs
this afternoon will remain less than 20% as drier low level air
nudges in from the east.

Skies will gradually clear area-wide this evening as the afternoon
showers dissipate, the frontal boundary retreats northward, and drier
air spreads into the area from the east. Although boundary layer
winds will be a little stronger tonight than last night, enough
moisture should be trapped below the boundary layer late tonight
to promote patchy fog formation over SW Florida and west of Lake
Okeechobee. Model-based probabilities for dense fog are quite
low, so any areas of sharply reduced visibilities should be fairly
limited.

The drying trend will continue Saturday as high pressure aloft
continues to spread north across South Florida from the Straits of
Florida and the frontal boundary shifts well north of our area.
No mentionable PoPs in the forecast for Saturday, although a few
light showers are not out of the question along the SE Florida
coast and adjacent Atlantic. SE winds will increase on Saturday,
gusting to 20 mph or greater at times.

Temperatures today will reach the mid/upper 80s south of the
frontal boundary, and low 80s north of the boundary due to clouds
and precipitation. Mild lows in the 60s and lower 70s tonight
under mostly clear skies. On Saturday, highs will range from the
lower/mid 80s east coast metro to the upper 80s over inland SW
Florida. The drier low level air will cause dewpoints to be
slightly lower than today, in the 60s, which will lead to peak
heat index values staying below 90F for the most part.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

Mid-level ridging will weaken across South Florida on Sunday in
response to a quick-moving mid-level shortwave trough pushing
across the southeastern portion of the country and into the
western Atlantic waters. While the trough axis will still remain
to the north of the region, it will get closer to the Florida
Peninsula. At the surface, strengthening low pressure will race
through the Midwest on Saturday night and into the Northeast on
Sunday. The frontal boundary associated with this system will push
into Northern and Central Florida during this time frame. With
the trough axis and the best dynamics remaining well to the north,
this front will once again be in a weakening state as it
approaches the region. The difference here is that with the
shortwave trough getting somewhat closer to the area, this will
actually help to push the frontal boundary across South Florida on
Sunday night into early Monday Morning before stalling out over
the Florida Keys. While most of Sunday will remain dry across
South Florida, breezy conditions will develop as winds shift to
the southwest ahead of the front and the pressure gradient
increases across the region. High temperatures on Sunday will
generally remain warm as they will rise into the lower to mid 80s
across most areas. As the front passes through the region, there
will be a slight chance of showers mainly on Sunday night into
Monday as the front pushes through. With the best lift and
instability remaining well off to the north, thunderstorm chances
will remain extremely low during this time frame. Behind the
front, winds will shift to the north on Monday and this will allow
for some cool air advection to take place during this time frame.
While most of the cold air will remain locked up well to the
north, the shift to a northerly wind flow will help to bring
temperatures back down to where they should be for this time of
year. High temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 70s
across most areas, however, temperatures in lower 80s will be
possible across the extreme southern areas.

The cooldown will be short lived however as what is left of the
frontal boundary over the Florida Keys will lift northward over
the region as Tuesday progresses. This is in response to another
shortwave well upstream over the southern Rockies pushing into the
Southern Plains. This will allow for another area of low pressure
to try to develop and strengthen over the Deep South and Northern
Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty in the forecast
rises during this time frame as this is towards the end of the
forecast period and differences exist in the latest global and
ensemble model guidance suite in regard to the track and speed of
the developing area of low pressure. This will ultimately play a
role in how fast the stalled frontal boundary over the Keys lifts
back north over the region and how far north it will actually
progress. With the front lifting north however, this could once
again reintroduce a chance of showers across South Florida on
Tuesday and Wednesday along with above normal temperatures. This
will continue to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 716 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Dry conditions should prevail with generally E/SE wind
around 10 knots through 14Z. Periods of gusts around 25kt are
expected after 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters today. A moderate to fresh wind will
develop over the local waters during the upcoming weekend and
winds will veer as the weekend progresses, becoming southeasterly
on Saturday and then south to southwesterly on Sunday. Seas across
the Gulf waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through
the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. A developing
swell could bring seas of 4 to 7 feet to the Atlantic waters on
late Saturday into early Sunday creating the potential for
hazardous marine conditions during this time frame. A cold front
is expected to move through the local waters late Sunday night and
Monday, causing winds to shift to N-NE for the early part of next
week. This will cause seas to become elevated in the 4-6 ft range
early next week. Shower activity will be fairly limited, with
showers concentrated in the Sunday night/Monday timeframe in
association with the cold front.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025

East wind today, and increasing SE wind on Saturday will lead to an
increasing rip current risk at the Atlantic beaches, with a high risk
likely through the weekend. After a brief lull in the rip current
risk early Monday, the risk will once again increase late Monday
as winds become NE behind the next cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  83  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     67  84  68  85 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        69  84  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        71  82  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  81  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  83  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   71  84  71  87 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  69  82  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       70  81  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           67  85  69  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Molleda
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...17