


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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088 FXUS62 KMFL 150018 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 718 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 Midday surface observations show the leading edge of a broad and diffuse frontal boundary extending from northern Palm Beach County to the Naples area, marked by NE winds north of this leading edge to SE winds to the south. Because the thermal boundary is farther to the north across Central Florida, there is enough instability and convergence for scattered showers along and north of the aforementioned zone. SPC mesoanalysis graphics show surface-based CAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg across this area this afternoon, with HREF/NBM-based guidance indicating values in the 1000-1700 j/kg range. This will support continued development of scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two for the remainder of the afternoon, with PoPs in the 20-30% range north of a West Palm Beach to Naples line. Due to abundant mid/upper level dry air/stability across the region courtesy of high pressure aloft over the western Bahamas and Straits of Florida, deep/strong convection will be very hard to come by, so any thunderstorms that do develop should remain below strong levels. Elsewhere, PoPs this afternoon will remain less than 20% as drier low level air nudges in from the east. Skies will gradually clear area-wide this evening as the afternoon showers dissipate, the frontal boundary retreats northward, and drier air spreads into the area from the east. Although boundary layer winds will be a little stronger tonight than last night, enough moisture should be trapped below the boundary layer late tonight to promote patchy fog formation over SW Florida and west of Lake Okeechobee. Model-based probabilities for dense fog are quite low, so any areas of sharply reduced visibilities should be fairly limited. The drying trend will continue Saturday as high pressure aloft continues to spread north across South Florida from the Straits of Florida and the frontal boundary shifts well north of our area. No mentionable PoPs in the forecast for Saturday, although a few light showers are not out of the question along the SE Florida coast and adjacent Atlantic. SE winds will increase on Saturday, gusting to 20 mph or greater at times. Temperatures today will reach the mid/upper 80s south of the frontal boundary, and low 80s north of the boundary due to clouds and precipitation. Mild lows in the 60s and lower 70s tonight under mostly clear skies. On Saturday, highs will range from the lower/mid 80s east coast metro to the upper 80s over inland SW Florida. The drier low level air will cause dewpoints to be slightly lower than today, in the 60s, which will lead to peak heat index values staying below 90F for the most part. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 214 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 Mid-level ridging will weaken across South Florida on Sunday in response to a quick-moving mid-level shortwave trough pushing across the southeastern portion of the country and into the western Atlantic waters. While the trough axis will still remain to the north of the region, it will get closer to the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, strengthening low pressure will race through the Midwest on Saturday night and into the Northeast on Sunday. The frontal boundary associated with this system will push into Northern and Central Florida during this time frame. With the trough axis and the best dynamics remaining well to the north, this front will once again be in a weakening state as it approaches the region. The difference here is that with the shortwave trough getting somewhat closer to the area, this will actually help to push the frontal boundary across South Florida on Sunday night into early Monday Morning before stalling out over the Florida Keys. While most of Sunday will remain dry across South Florida, breezy conditions will develop as winds shift to the southwest ahead of the front and the pressure gradient increases across the region. High temperatures on Sunday will generally remain warm as they will rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas. As the front passes through the region, there will be a slight chance of showers mainly on Sunday night into Monday as the front pushes through. With the best lift and instability remaining well off to the north, thunderstorm chances will remain extremely low during this time frame. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north on Monday and this will allow for some cool air advection to take place during this time frame. While most of the cold air will remain locked up well to the north, the shift to a northerly wind flow will help to bring temperatures back down to where they should be for this time of year. High temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 70s across most areas, however, temperatures in lower 80s will be possible across the extreme southern areas. The cooldown will be short lived however as what is left of the frontal boundary over the Florida Keys will lift northward over the region as Tuesday progresses. This is in response to another shortwave well upstream over the southern Rockies pushing into the Southern Plains. This will allow for another area of low pressure to try to develop and strengthen over the Deep South and Northern Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty in the forecast rises during this time frame as this is towards the end of the forecast period and differences exist in the latest global and ensemble model guidance suite in regard to the track and speed of the developing area of low pressure. This will ultimately play a role in how fast the stalled frontal boundary over the Keys lifts back north over the region and how far north it will actually progress. With the front lifting north however, this could once again reintroduce a chance of showers across South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday along with above normal temperatures. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail during the next 24 hours at all terminals. Dry conditions should prevail with generally E/SE wind around 10 knots through 14Z. Periods of gusts around 25kt are expected after 15Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters today. A moderate to fresh wind will develop over the local waters during the upcoming weekend and winds will veer as the weekend progresses, becoming southeasterly on Saturday and then south to southwesterly on Sunday. Seas across the Gulf waters will generally remain at 3 feet or less through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. A developing swell could bring seas of 4 to 7 feet to the Atlantic waters on late Saturday into early Sunday creating the potential for hazardous marine conditions during this time frame. A cold front is expected to move through the local waters late Sunday night and Monday, causing winds to shift to N-NE for the early part of next week. This will cause seas to become elevated in the 4-6 ft range early next week. Shower activity will be fairly limited, with showers concentrated in the Sunday night/Monday timeframe in association with the cold front. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1221 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 East wind today, and increasing SE wind on Saturday will lead to an increasing rip current risk at the Atlantic beaches, with a high risk likely through the weekend. After a brief lull in the rip current risk early Monday, the risk will once again increase late Monday as winds become NE behind the next cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 67 84 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 69 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 71 82 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 71 81 71 83 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 70 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 71 84 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 69 82 69 85 / 0 0 0 0 Boca Raton 70 81 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 Naples 67 85 69 81 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Molleda LONG TERM....SRB AVIATION...17