Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 150758 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 258 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area today then slide offshore tonight and Monday. A strong cold front will cross the area Tuesday night, with cold high pressure building in through Friday. A coastal storm is possible by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 220 Am Sunday...Quiet weather as high pres builds across with mainly clr skies. Low lvl thicknesses support temps near to slightly above normal with upr 50s to lower 60s expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Sunday...High pressure will begin to slide offshore with skies remaining mostly clear. Winds will be quite light and with good radiational cooling have lows reaching upr 30s typically cooler inland spots with low/mid 40s beaches. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 AM Sun...Warm weather is expected through Tuesday, before a cold front crosses the region and brings another round of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much colder conditions expected behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with a possible coastal storm developing next weekend. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will ridge in from offshore through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. Warm SW flow and sunny skies will allow temps to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, guidance has continued to delay the passage of the cold front slightly, which will lead to a warmer solution for Tuesday, with highs likely reaching the low 70s in many locations despite mostly cloudy skies. Expect chances for showers to increase from west to east Tuesday morning, with widespread rain expected from late morning through Tuesday night. Have increased PoPs along the coast overnight, as the front looks a bit slower to exit off the coast. Given the warm and moist atmosphere, some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, but should be relegated to the immediate coast and offshore. Severe threat looks marginal, as uncertainty remains with how much instability will develop onshore, but the dynamic profile is impressive with 50-70 kts of bulk shear present. Wednesday and Thursday...Much colder conditions are expected behind the cold front Wednesday, as strong CAA will limit temps from rising very much during the day despite sunny skies. Expect below average highs, mostly in the low to mid 40s. Then, as the base of the upper level trough moves across the area Wednesday night and into Thursday, temps will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s overnight, and then only rebound into the low 40s for highs Thursday afternoon. Friday and Saturday...Despite continued modest CAA Friday, heights will build as a weak upper level ridge approaches from the west. This will lead to moderating temperatures with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Then on Saturday, forecast guidance is indicating the possibility of a strong coastal storm forming somewhere along or well off the East Coast. Considerable uncertainty remains, as models have varied greatly from run to run. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1215 AM Sunday...High confidence in VFR thru period with mainly clr skies as high pres builds across. Dewpts are dropping inland and combined with a W breeze shld preclude fog formation thru daybreak. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Sun...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning when another cold front moves through the area and may bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions return later Wednesday through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 220 AM Sunday...Winds have started to diminish on the sounds as best surge departs and high pres builds in from the W. With winds expected to cont to diminish rest of the night have dropped the SCA for the Sounds and Alligator river. Winds still gusty coastal wtrs with rough seas 5 to 10 ft. Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kts today then become light tonight as the high crosses. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft today with SCA ending nrn and srn wtrs mid day and central wtrs later this aftn. Seas will cont to subside to 2 to 4 ft tonight. Long Term /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions expected Monday, but then winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday, with continued strong winds and hazardous seas lasting through Thursday. Winds will be SW 10-15 kts on Monday, and then increase to 20-30 kts on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to cross the waters overnight into Wednesday morning, with winds turning to the NNW at 25-30 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, winds become 15-20 kts, except for a period Wednesday night into Thursday morning when winds increase to 20-30 kts. Seas will be 3-5 ft Monday, and then increase to 6-10 ft Tuesday. Seas then subside slightly to 5-8 ft on Wednesday through most of Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...SGK AVIATION...RF/SGK MARINE...RF/SGK

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