Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 230736 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 336 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the southeast coast today will temporarily shift to the southeast. Low pressure will pass to the north of the region today through Friday, with a trailing frontal boundary moving south through the area Friday. The high will build back into the region this weekend and continue into mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 am Thu...The surface ridge along the coast this morning will shift southeast during the day, resulting in a south to southwest flow. Time sections show scattered high based CU developing during the day, but no showers forecast. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s inland, with upper 70s to lower 80s south coast and Outer Banks. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 330 am Thu...CU field will dissipate early this evening, leaving clear skies overnight. Light southwest flow will make for mild low temps, in the upper 60s to lower 70s throughout the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thu...A highly amplified upper pattern is expected across the CONUS through mid next week featuring a strong upper ridge over the southeast states. This pattern favors well above average temperatures, possibly reaching record levels and below normal precipitation. A weak/dry front is forecast to cross the region Friday which will result in cooler but still warm Temps Sat bringing a brief respite from the heat. Another boundary/wind shift is expected across the region on Memorial Day but is not expected to have much affect on temps except for the immediate coast. Highs Fri, and Sunday through mid week will be in the 90s. Cooler highs in the 80s are expected Sat. It continues to look predominately dry through the period. Differential heating/local sea breeze circulations and low amplitude shortwaves rotating around the periphery of the upper ridge could trigger isolated to widely scattered convective activity at times but current model runs still indicate no significant/organized precipitation events through mid next week. Friday through Wednesday...A strong upper level ridge will remain stationary over the deep south into mid next week. Surface high pressure will again set up over the western Atlantic, producing a deep SW flow across the region. This combination will bring record heat to the Southeast US. However, NC will remain on the northern edge of the ridge and on the northern periphery of the heat, and vulnerable to weak boundaries drifting across the region from the north and west which could have a slight cooling effect if they move into the area. Inland, the potential for very hot conditions still exists with 850 MB temps forecast AOA 20C Fri and Sun-Wed and will forecast inland highs in the 90s Fri and Sunday through mid next week. Heat Index values Fri and Sunday through Wed will be 95-100 degrees. Please see Climate section below for record temp details. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 1 am Thu...VFR and mostly clear conditions prevail through the TAF period at all sites, with light and variable winds becoming southerly during the day today. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, though cannot rule out patchy shallow fog and/or stratus early each morning at the terminals. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 330 am Thu...High pressure along the coast this morning will shift southeast during the day. The pressure gradient will gradually tighten today into tonight as low pressure passes well north of the region. Resulting light winds this morning will increase into tonight, but are forecast to remain below 25 knots so no Small Craft Advisories are forecast. Seas will average 2-3 feet today, building to 2-4 feet tonight with 3-5 feet in the waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thu...High pressure will be the dominant feature through the period. Guidance continues to show a front pushing through the waters Friday with W winds 15-20 kt and gusty early early diminishing and becoming N/NE 10-15 kt Fri afternoon and evening. E/NE flow around 10 kt is expected Sat. Sunday SW winds 10-15 kt will increase to 15 to 20 kt. Mon W winds around 15 kt will become NE 10-15 kt as a weak boundary moves through the waters. Seas Fri will be 3-5 ft subsiding to 2-4 ft and continue 2-4 ft Sat. Sunday seas build to 3-5 ft in the afternoon. Even though winds are forecast below 25 kt Mon the wave models are generating 4-6 ft seas over the outer central waters. && .CLIMATE... Record or near record warmth is expected late this week into early next week. Record High temps for 5/24 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/2011 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 87/1992 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1925 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 87/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 94/1994 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 95/2011 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 5/26 (Sunday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 100/1953 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 88/1962 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 99/1927 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 96/1953 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 94/2004 (KNCA ASOS) Record High temps for 5/27 (Monday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 96/1989 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/2004 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 96/1962 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 88/2006 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/2011 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 97/1989 (KNCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...JME/HSA CLIMATE...MHX

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