Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 241127 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 727 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drift south of the region this morning then gradually dissipate. Weak low pressure is expected to lift north near the coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. A stronger cold front will push through the area Friday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 730 AM Monday...The cold front has pushed south of the area this morning as strong high pressure builds in from the north while a coastal trough persists off the coast. Areas of stratus have spread to much of the coast behind the front and expect low clouds to persist through late morning, then clouds will gradually lift through mid-day. The high centered to the north will migrate off the New England coast through the day with low level flow veering from N/NE to predominantly E this afternoon which will serve to push the coastal trough inland. Isolated to scattered showers have spread into southern coastal sections this morning are expected to push westward across the area through the day as the trough moves inland. Could also see an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon with CAPE forecast around 2000 J/Kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 25 kt. Highs today will mainly be in the low to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday...The coastal trough pushes west of the area this evening with showers diminishing with loss of surface heating, though could see isolated showers, especially along the coast. A low pressure area off the Southeast coast will push westward closer to the coast overnight with shower chances increasing across eastern sections after midnight. Lows expected around 70-75. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Mon...Predominantly E/SE flow across the area thru Tuesday with high pressure sliding off the New England coast while continuing to ridge SW into the piedmont and a weak area of low pressure or open trough moving westward beneath the high towards the Southeast coast Tuesday. Sufficient moisture, instability and shear will be present to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region, especially through peak heating, though expect most storms to remain below severe limits. Some heavy rain will be possible, with PWAT values approaching 2 inches. Coastal sections will see the best chances of precip Tuesday with the weak low or trough in the vicinity. Low level thicknesses begin to increase Tuesday with highs expected to generally be in the mid 80s, except low 80s along the coast. High pressure will be centered off the SE coast Wednesday and Thursday with SW flow continuing to bringing a warm, moist and unstable airmass across the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. Best chance of precip will come Thursday with increasing SW flow aloft ahead of a digging longwave trough across the central CONUS and an embedded shortwave progged to lift across the Southeast. Low level thicknesses support high in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday but drop some Thursday with highs mainly in the mid 80s. Overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cold front approaches from the NW Friday and is currently progged to push through the area Friday night. Continued moist and unstable airmass ahead of the front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to increase to around 30-40 kt and could see stronger storms develop. Highs Friday expected in the low/mid 80s. A more stable airmass moves in behind the front but could see an isolated shower during the day Saturday. Temps will be cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short term /through Tonight/... As of 7 AM Monday...A front has pushed south of the area this morning with LIFR stratus advecting into eastern NC which is expected to persist until mid-morning, then will gradually lift through the late morning and mid day hours with pred VFR returning early this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible across rtes this afternoon as a coastal trough pushes inland. Shower chances decrease this evening as the trough pushes to the west and instability decreases with loss of heating. An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will push westward tonight with showers chances increasing along the coast after midnight. Could also see patchy fog develop at the terminals late tonight. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected much of the period though patchy late night/early morning fog possible each morning. Also could see isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms through the period, especially through peak heating each day. Thursday will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms at the terminals with shortwave energy lifting across the area. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 3 AM Monday...A front is pushing south of the area this morning with strong high pressure building in from the north while a coastal trough persists just offshore. The high will push off the New England coast today and tonight with the coastal trough pushing inland. Expect pred NE winds around 5-10 kt this morning, becoming E around 10-15 kt this afternoon. An area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will push northwest toward the coast tonight with gradients tightening further between the low and high pressure to the north and expect E winds around 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2-4 ft feet this morning build to 3 to 6 ft this afternoon and evening and to 5-8 ft late tonight as a prolonged easterly fetch develops across the western Atlantic. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 330 AM Mon...High pressure slides off the New England coast Tuesday while continuing to ridge into the region and expect winds to trend to the SE Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure or open trough moves westward toward the Southeast coast. SE winds 10-20 kt Tue. The prolonged fetch of onshore winds will keep seas elevated 5-8 ft Tue, subsiding to 4-6 ft Wed. Extended SCA several hours based on good agreement between NWPS and Wavewatch. The trough/weak low dissipates Tuesday night with high pressure strengthening off the Southeast coast bringing S to SW winds around 5-15 kt Wednesday and Thursday. Seas expected to slowly subside to around 3-5 ft north and 2-4 ft south by Wednesday evening and continuing through Thursday. A cold front will approach the waters Thursday, though likely not moving through until Friday night. Winds shift behind the front becoming NE 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 230 PM Sunday...Rivers have all crested and will cont to see levels grad drop next several days. Still have major to moderate flooding over the southern portion of the area. Heed all local law enforcement instructions and do not drive into flooded roadways. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ158. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SK NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...SK/CQD MARINE...SK/CQD HYDROLOGY...MHX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.