Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201109 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 709 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop to the south today and lift north across the area tonight. The low will lift north of the region Thursday pushing a cold front offshore. Another, mainly dry cold front will push across the area late Friday. High pressure will build into the area this weekend. Low pressure is expected to impact the region early to mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 710 AM Wed...Latest sfc analysis shows 1030mb high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic and NE US coasts extending through the SE US, with area of low pressure beginning to develop along a stalled frontal boundary lingering along the SE coast. Low pressure will continue to strengthen to the south today while the associated trough pushes onshore later today. Latest radar imagery shows light rain blossoming across most of the area this morning, with heavier precip approaching the southern coast. Precip starting to reach the ground now as dewpoints rise. Numerous showers expected today, with coverage increasing throughout the day. Increased pops to likely/categorical. Light rain this morning, becoming moderate late in the day as the column saturates. Highs today in the 50s today with cloudy skies and precip. Continued breezy to windy in the morning, esp along the coast, then winds should slowly diminish this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Wed...A robust upper trough will approach from the the west and this will aid in lifting a strengthening area of low pressure across Eastern NC tonight into early Thursday. Numerous showers expected to continue, with periods of moderate to locally heavy rain possible. Precip will likely be tapering off from SW to NE late tonight and early Thu. Could see isolated thunderstorms develop east of the low, along the coast. Instability looks limited but modest shear develops with 40-50 kt low level jet. Overnight lows ranging from the low/mid 40s inland to upper 40s/low 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Wednesday...An area of low pressure will lift north of the area Thu with the heaviest rain moving offshore. A mainly dry cold front will cross the region late Fri. High pressure will build over the area this weekend bringing dry wx and a warming trend Sun into Mon. The next system look to impact the area Mon night and Tue. Thursday through Friday night...Low pressure is progged to be over the northern coastal plain Thursday morning which will lift north of the area through the day. The heaviest showers will be across eastern portions of the FA early but will push offshore through the morning with precip chances diminishing as the dry slot moves over the region. Still could see a few lingering showers through Thu evening until the upper trough axis pushes across the area. Expect dry conditions Friday but models are now showing another embedded shortwave and cold front moving south through the Great Lakes and pushing across the region Friday evening. Expect a dry frontal passage with moistening limited to just above 850 mb and with a very dry sub-cloud layer in place, any precip is expected to evaporate before reaching the ground. Temps expected to be a few degrees below normal with high in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will be in the 40s Thu night with mid to upper 30s inland behind the front Fri night. Saturday through Sunday night...The upper trough slowly moves offshore Sat with an upper ridge and surface high pressure building over the area Sat night into early Sun. The high will drift offshore late Sun and Sun night with a complex system approaching from the west. Dry conditions continue over the weekend with temps remaining below normal Saturday with highs in the mid 50s to around 60 but will begin to see a warming trend Sun with southerly flow developing in the afternoon with the high moving offshore. Monday and Tuesday...A complex low pressure system is expected to impact the region early to mid next week bringing a return of unsettled weather, however details and timing remain uncertain as model spread and run to run consistency remains poor. Precip could start as early as Mon but best chances are looking to be Mon night into Tue. Temps will likely be above normal Mon with southerly flow persisting ahead of the low pressure system and expect highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temps expected to be cooler Tue with more clouds and precip in the area. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 710 AM Wed...Mix of VFR and MVFR across the TAF sites early this morning. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate through the day, with widespread sub-VFR conditions likely to develop at all sites by late morning and continue through the period. IFR conditions will be possible, with best chances late this afternoon into tonight. Widespread showers today, with best chances this afternoon and tonight. LLWS could develop late tonight and early Thu morning as low level jet strengthens. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 415 AM Wednesday...Precip will taper off from SW to NE Thu as low lifts N of region and shld grad see VFR conditions return. VFR expected Fri through Sun as high pres builds across with dry air over region. && .MARINE... Short Term /through tonight/... As of 710 AM Wed...Latest surface and buoy data indicate NE/NNE winds 20-25 kt with seas 6-10 ft across the waters. Gusty winds and elevated seas will continue through tonight. An area of low pressure will strengthen to the south today, then lift north just inland from the coast tonight and early Thu morning. Associated trough will slowly push through the waters this afternoon and evening, with flow veering and becoming E/SE 15-25 kt by this evening and SE/SW 15-25 kt early Thu. Gusty winds this morning will diminish a bit to 15-25 kt this afternoon. Dropped Gales and replaced with SCA for the waters south of Oregon Inlet. SCAs continue for the northern waters, sounds and Alligator Rvr. NWPS shows seas building up to 12 ft across the outer southern and central waters this evening. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...Low pressure lifts north of the area Thu with winds becoming WSW around 10-20 kt during the afternoon. Seas around 6-10 ft early will subside to 4-7 ft by Thu evening. Breezy WNW winds around 10-25 kt continue Thu night into Fri, then a dry cold front will push across the waters Fri evening with CAA bringing NW winds around 15-25 kt. Seas around 4-7 ft are expected to continue into Sat morning. High pressure builds into the region Sat, then becomes centered across the area late Sat night and early Sun, then pushes offshore by Sun afternoon. Expect NW winds to 10-20 Sat afternoon, becoming variable less than 15 kt late Sat night and Sun morning as the high migrates across the area, then becomes southerly Sun afternoon as the high moves offshore. Seas are expected to subside to below 6 ft by Sat evening and to 2-4 ft by Sun morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 710 AM Wed...Persistent gusty NE flow combined with high astronomical tides is keeping waters levels higher than normal (0.5 ft agl/1 ft above normal) for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound. Winds will diminish this afternoon allowing water levels to improve. Gusty SE flow late today and tonight will lead to higher than normal water levels along the south facing beaches. Issued a High Surf Advisory for rough surf and minor beach erosion for the beaches from Oregon Inlet to Cape Lookout. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ095-103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ130- 131. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RF/SK AVIATION...SK/CQD MARINE...SK/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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