Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 040017 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 717 PM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds back in tonight through the weekend, while a developing offshore low is expected to move well south and east of the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 710 PM Wednesday...No changes to the prev disc. Prev disc...The latest analysis is showing the shortwave trough axis have moved offshore, meanwhile the low pressure system that provided some light rain showers this morning continues to move farther east. Deep NW flow will provide clear skies combined with light to calm winds lead to good radiational cooling overnight. Expect overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper 30s inland to lower 40s along Outer Banks. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... High pressure will continue to build across the region tomorrow, allowing for deep NW flow leading to warm and dry weather conditions. A dry cold front will push through the area late in the day allowing for breezy conditions to occur along the coast. Due to downsloping effect, expect temperatures to reach into the mid 50s from the NE section of FA to mid 60s to the SW. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM Wednesday...The overall pattern for the next 7 days is looking cool and dry. The models continue to exhibit good run to run continuity and are in excellent agreement regarding the track of developing low pressure off the southeast coast this weekend. The model trend continues to keep the low suppressed south and further offshore with a cool but dry weekend now expected. Thursday night through Friday...High pressure will build over the area with dry weather expected with a reinforcement of the cold temps Thurs night into Fri. Temps will drop into the 30s Thurs night and Fri`s high is expect to only reach into the mid-upper 40s to around 50 degrees. Saturday and Sunday...High pressure will continue to build south over the area while low pressure develops off the southeast coast this weekend. The trend is to keep the low track suppressed south and further offshore with a cool but dry weekend now expected. Temps will continue below normal with highs around 50. Monday and Tuesday...The surface high will crest over the area Mon and Tue with continued dry weather and moderating temps with highs in the 50s Mon and 60s Tue. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /Through Thursday Afternoon/... As of 710 PM Wed...High pressure building in through the TAF period will provide prevailing VFR conditions for all terminals. Clear skies and light Wrly winds expected tonight, but very dry low levels will inhibit fog formation overnight. Skies remain mostly clear into Thu with winds turning NW around 10 kts. Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 150 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thu through the weekend with dry weather and VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Thursday/... As of 330 PM Wednesday...All SCA allowed to expire. Otherwise, no changes to prev disc. Prev disc...Wind will become NW/N 10-20 knots tonight through tomorrow with occasional gust to 25 kts as the dry cold front pushes through late in the day, but not enough to start SCA at that timeframe. SCA conditions are expect to start Thursday night around midnight when the northerly surge 15-25 knots gusting to 30 knots. Seas will become 3-5 ft south of Diamond Shoals and 2-4 ft north tonight. Then seas will generally be 2-4 ft with 5 footers along the outer coastal waters by the afternoon. Long Term /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 150 AM Wednesday...Winds could briefly reach 25 kt Thu night as cold advection increases and again Sun when the gradient tightens a bit as a developing offshore low passes well southeast of the waters. Seas will be 3-5 ft Thu and Fri subsiding to 2-4 ft Sat, then building back to 3-5 ft Sunday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ135- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Thursday to 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...BM/ML SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/ML MARINE...JME/BM

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