Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 251621 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1221 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crossing the area will stall offshore today. Low pressure will develop along the front and pass off the coast tonight. High pressure will dominate the weather early to mid next week before a complex frontal system and low pressure area impacts the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1220 PM Sun...Fcst trends look good. Radar shows area of heavy rain slowly pushing NE across region with locations N and E of EWN likely to receive heaviest rain next few hrs. Cvrg has decreased a bit SW tier but still enuf to keep high pops this aftn. Despite lack of thunder have seen heavy rain with over 2 inches reported at a few sites this morn. Prev disc...The cold front is roughly along the Neuse River moving southward as sunrise while the surge of higher theta-e is working into the area from the south. These two features will intersect over the next couple of hours, with rainfall coverage increasing quickly as the shortwave over the central Carolinas moves toward the coast. No significant changes made with the sunrise update. Previous Discussion...A weakening cold front will cross the area this morning, reaching the southern coast by mid morning. While some modest moisture convergence will occur ahead of the front, scattered shower coverage will mainly remain offshore and along the immediate coast south of Cape Hatteras, where moisture content is greatest and modest instability will make a couple of rumbles of thunder possible. High pressure building in behind the front will be very shallow, and moisture overrunning this surface layer will bring cloudy skies and light isentropically forced rain across most of the region today. However, a southern stream shortwave will cross the area early this afternoon, bringing better dynamic lift and moisture (PWATs surge over 2 in for several hours), and resulting in a period of moderate to heavy rainfall cross the area early to mid afternoon. Some localized minor flooding is possible, but very dry antecedent conditions negate any significant flash flooding threat. Additionally, low pressure will develop within the front stalled off the coast in response to the passing shortwave, bringing an increase in low level moisture advection later in the afternoon, with instability remaining very low inland, but a few thunderstorms possible near the coast south of Cape Hatteras. Temps near normal as post-frontal CAA is modest. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... As of 345 AM Sun...Upper subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will bring an end to accumulating precip inland this evening. However, low pressure passing off the coast will continue to advect moisture in, overrunning the shallow post- frontal ridge/wedge. This moist layer will get compressed as mid level subsidence strengthens through the night, with very low stratus and drizzle expected to prevail through much of the night and stratus possibly building to the surface as fog occasionally. Scattered showers remain possible near the coast if the low tracks closer to the coast, but little to no QPF is expected elsewhere. Mild temps overnight given overcast skies, with mid 50s to lower 60s for lows away from the beaches (5-10 degrees above normal). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM Sun...High pressure builds in Monday and keeps settled weather conditions in place through mid week. A complex low pressure/frontal system will lift from the Gulf Coast and TN Valley then zoom across the eastern US, bringing the potential for unsettled weather Thursday into Friday. Monday...Upper level subsidence brings drying conditions and clearing skies through the day Monday, though light nerly flow may keep some cloud cover around much of the day, and therefore temps held down a few degrees in in-situ damming across the Coastal Plains, where temps may struggle into the mid/upr 60s. 70s are forecast elsewhere. Tuesday and Wednesday...High pressure should dominate this period, as fairly strong upr ridge will reside over the swrn Atlantic keeping dry and warm conditions in place over ern NC. Continued above climo temps with highs in the 70s, possibly around 80 by Wed. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. Thursday and Friday...Low pressure, which the National Hurricane Center currently expects to become tropical over the next 24-48 hrs, will lift from the Gulf Coast towards the interior ern US later next week. The track of this low is highly uncertain, but the overall expectation is increased deep moisture transport across the Southeast and a more warm/humid/unsettled period as the tropical system gets absorbed in a fast moving shortwave that will move quickly eastward. Rainfall timing, amount, intensity, and the severe weather potential are low track dependent, and will be refined in subsequent forecasts. Have continued high chc pops Thu into Fri. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /Through Mon/... As of 1220 PM Sun...Poor flying conditions bulk of this fcst period. Area of heavy rain is pivoting slowly NE across region with mainly IFR conditions. Precip will taper off to mainly drizzle this evening however low clouds will cont and likely become LIFR all sites overnight as inversion develops as weak low develops offshore. Could also see some fog inland as well overnight. Low clouds will be slow to lift Mon with cont IFR/LIFR thru mid morn then shld see pred MVFR late morn into early aftn. VFR may finally develop inland later in the aftn. Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/... As of 1220 PM Sun...VFR conditions prevail most of the period. Will have typical threat of late night and early morn fog/stratus. By Thu wl start to see some shra develop ahead of next system with sub VFR poss at times. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1220 PM Sun...N winds remain gusty far N but winds rather light elsewhere. Still good cvrg of 6 to 7 foot seas nrn/cntrl wtrs. This is a bit higher than guidance and have extended the SCA until 8 pm this evening. Prev disc...A cold front will cross the waters from north to south within a couple of hours of sunrise this morning, stalling over the coastal waters or a bit further offshore by mid morning. Moderate northeast flow (around 10-15 kt with some higher gusts) emerges behind the front and likely persists through tonight. The caveat is that low pressure developing along the aforementioned front and passing off the coast tonight could bring breezier conditions overnight if the more aggressive guidance is correct, but the most reliable guidance consensus is for this low to be weak and minimally impactful. Seas remain elevated this morning as the longer period swell from Epsilon continues to diminish. Seas are expected to drop below 6 ft across the waters by midday, with the SCA scheduled to end accordingly. Thereafter, 3 to 5 ft seas prevail later today through tonight in a mix of the still-fading Epsilon swell and new but modest northeasterly windswell. Long Term /Mon through Thu/... As of 330 AM Sat...Moderate northeast winds in the forecast through Monday as low pres moves slowly away from the waters. Speeds should be 10-20 kt, and sub SCA conditions are expected. High pressure dominates Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing more favorable marine conditions with light to moderate winds and 3 to 4 ft seas. Strong cold front and low pressure system approach on Thu, with winds and seas increasing to SCA levels in strengthening swrly flow. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RF/TL MARINE...RF/TL/CB

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