Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 051400 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1000 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will linger near the area through late week into the weekend. High pressure will then build over the area late in the weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... As of 10 AM Wed...Area of tsra still continues across SE NC, but is weakening as it moves towards E NC. A bkn cirrus shield exists across the wrn 2/3 of the FA, so daytime heating will be delayed today. Still expecting good convergence along active sea breeze by this afternoon, and have raised pops along this zone to 50-60%, transistioning furthern inland towards the Coastal Plain by later afternoon. Temps still warm and humid with highs generally around 90 most areas. Prev discussion... As of 7 AM Wednesday...Showers and a few thunderstorms now well offshore, but additional showers and storms are occurring near stalled frontal boundary near the SC/NC state line and the precipitation is moving into NC from northeast SC at daybreak. Latest HRRR shows that this activity will likely decrease in coverage before arriving in our CWA, but have low PoPs for the morning. PoPs will be higher this afternoon as a broad upper level trough coupled with a weak frontal boundary just to our north and increasing precipitable water (values surge to over 2 inches) will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The most likely area will be along the afternoon sea breeze and kept about a 40 percent PoP for inland areaS. High temperatures today should be in the upper 80s coast to lower 90s inland. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight/... As of 355 AM Wednesday...A few lingering showers or storms may continue into the evening before ending with loss of heating. Some coastal showers may occur later in the night and have kept low PoPs over the area overnight. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... A mid to upper level trough remains in place through the weekend, allowing for deep SW flow accompanied with Gulf moisture, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Thursday through Saturday...Not much change to the extend forecast durIng this period as a trough aloft will remain across the eastern half of the CONUS allowing for a deep SW flow coupled with Gulf moisture feeding into the region. While at the surface, a stationary boundary remains in place across central NC (Thursday) and generally move eastward towards ENC Friday. Some of the models have the boundary either weakening/washing out over the area or pushing through ENC early Saturday morning as a weak low forms off the Jersey coast. In general, with this synoptic setup, expect showers and thunderstorms to occur each day with possible heavy downpours due to high PWATS. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday as a shortwave energy will move across the area. Sunday through Wednesday...The mid to upper level trough will start to transition to a weak ridge and allowing for the flow aloft to become more W/NW--bringing dry air to filter into the area. Though ridge at the sfc and aloft will dominate the region, expect typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms to occur, but coverage will be limited due to W/NW flow aloft. In general during this period, expect high temperatures to be in the upper 80s to around 90 inland, while along the coast temps will range in the mid to upper 80s, and lows mainly in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Thursday/... As of 705 AM Wednesday...Some LIFR ceilings/vsby being observed inland early this morning at KPGV, KISO and KOAJ. These conditions should improve fairly quickly this morning with VFR conditions into the afternoon. Scattered coverage of thunderstorms at the TAF sites expected this afternoon, which will briefly reduce conditions to MVFR. Mostly VFR overnight, although guidance shows some signal of some low ceilings again toward morning, but not quite enough confidence as of yet to include in TAFs Thursday morning. Long Term /Thursday through Monday/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... VFR conditions continues through the TAF period, except during the early morning hours as fog/low stratus can develop. Also, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected each day bringing conditions to brief sub-VFR. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 715 AM Wednesday...Very little change in marine conditions at daybreak with SW winds 5-15 knots and seas 3-4 feet. Winds should back to a more southerly direction late today and tonight at around 10 knots. Seas tonight will be generally 2-4 feet. Long Term /Thursday through Monday/... As of 300 AM Wednesday...Good boating conditions during this period. Expect SW winds around 10 or less knots with seas 1-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC/TL SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...CTC/BM MARINE...CTC/BM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.