Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 300727 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 327 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the southwest today. An area of low pressure will move eastward to the south of the area Tuesday night and strengthen well offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 310 AM Mon...Upper heights continue to slowly fall over the Carolinas this morning with increasingly zonal flow setting up south of a broad stacked low crossing into Quebec. Another shortwave trough was seen on WV imagery digging into the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front was impinging on the western CWA border with rapidly falling dew points in its wake. The overall forecast picture is quiet for today with zonal flow continuing aloft and high pressure remaining over the region for today. Weak CAA will continue aloft allowing low-level thicknesses to slowly fall during the day. Lowered highs a couple degrees this morning based on implied thicknesses of around 1375 m and continued mid to high level clouds streaming overhead courtesy of upper level jet, but still expect a few 80s south of Highway 264 with 70s elsewhere. Bigger issue today will be the potential for ideal fire weather conditions. Dry airmass will advect in behind the passing cold front today with forecast Tds falling into the upper 30s. Additionally, west to northwesterly winds will remain 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kt as pressure gradient remains pinched. Combined with expected temps, RHs are forecast to fall to around 25 percent, although this may trend lower if mixing layer is deeper than expected and even drier air aloft can be brought to the surface. Residents in the region should take precautions when burning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM Mon...Dry reinforcing backdoor cold front will cross the state overnight with more robust CAA aloft with winds veering northerly. Cloud cover increases overnight with developing cyclone over the southeastern CONUS but lows should still be able to fall into the low to mid 50s across the region with a few upper 40s in well sheltered areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As 3 AM Mon...Low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night, strengthening offshore Wednesday. High pressure will build over the area late week. Another front will approach the area late this weekend. Temps will gradually moderate late week into the weekend. Tuesday through Wednesday...Miller type B cyclogenesis is expected Tue over South Carolina with the parent low tracking across the Ohio Valley. This is response to a potent mid level trough moving across the Midwest US. The developing low is forecast to track northeast along the NC coast Tue night into Wed then continue to deepen Wed afternoon off of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Widespread rainfall is expected late Tue afternoon into Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday night with PWATs approaching 1.25". Will continue categorical pops, with WPC showing 0.75-1.5" qpf amts. Bulk of precip should be ending by late Wed morning, with lighter wrap around moisture from the offshore low possible across the area during the afternoon. Strong winds will develop late Tue night, peaking Wednesday, strongest along the coast. Wind gusts 40-50 mph expected along the coast. Minor water level rises will be possible, especially for oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras, along with rough surf. See Coastal Flood section below for more details. Low level thickness values, increasing clouds and NE/E flow support highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Tue, and a few degrees cooler Wed, 55-60 deg. Thursday through Monday...High pressure will build in from the west late week into the first part of the weekend, resulting in dry weather and moderating temps near climo. The next frontal system will approach the area late next weekend. Doesn`t look like much moisture with this feature, but still a bit of uncertainty so will continue sc pops Sun and Mon. Highs generally 65-70 deg inland and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast, and overnight lows 45-55 deg through Sat. Temps will continue to moderate, warming into the 70s inland late week into early next weekend as flow becomes more southerly. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Tuesday/... As of 110 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across the airspace this morning with high confidence in VFR conditions through the period as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Weak front is crossing the Raleigh area this hour and is forecast to be east of terminals by 12z this morning. Another breezy day expected with variable northwest to west winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible especially for the coastal plain. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 AM Mon...Deteriorating conditions Tue, beginning as VFR with cigs lowering through the day. Developing low pressure will approach the area from the southwest late Tue producing widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions. Best chance for widespread sub- VFR will be Tue evening into Wed afternoon, with periods of IFR likely Tue night. Conditions should be improving through the day Wed, though gusty northerly winds expected. VFR likely to return Wed night and prevail into Friday as high pressure builds over the area. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 325 AM Mon...Latest buoy and local observations show WSW to W flow 10-15 knots with stronger winds for the central coastal waters with Diamond Shoals gusting up to 25 kt (and a water temperature rebounding to 71). Seas remain 6-7 feet for outer waters with 2-4 ft waves elsewhere. Only SCA remaining is for the central waters and this was extended to 12z as waves are decreasing slightly slower than expected. Winds will veer west to northwest at 10-15 kt as cold front crosses the waters this morning. Another reinforcing front crosses from the north overnight with winds veering northerly and briefing surging to 15-20 kt. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible for northern and central waters but event appears too marginal to warrant new SCAs this cycle. Waves across all waters fall to 2-3 feet by sunset with 4 footers returning with the northerly surge. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 AM Mon...Tue ahead of developing low pressure to the southwest, NE winds 15-20 kt will veer to the E/NE 10-20 kt. An area of low pressure will lift along the NC coast Tuesday night and strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday. Strong N/NE winds 25-35 kt will develop Tue night, peaking Wed morning and early afternoon, then gradually subsiding Wed night. Still looks like several hours of gale force winds are likely across the waters and sounds. Will hold off on Gale Watch for now, but may be needed later today. Seas will build Tue night, peaking at 6-14 ft Wed. Winds and seas will be gradually subsiding Thursday as high pressure builds over the waters. NW winds 15-20 kt subsiding to 10-15 kt late with seas subsiding to 4-6 ft by afternoon. Gusty NNW winds will continue Friday, along with building seas as long period swell increases from distant low pressure. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Mon...Strong N/NE winds will develop Tue night, peaking Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Minor water level rises will be possible for areas adjacent to the southern Pamlico Sound, and oceanside locations north of Cape Hatteras. Rough surf will develop along with the threat for minor erosion for the beaches north of Hatteras. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/MS MARINE...CQD/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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