Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 170511 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 111 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain offshore through Tuesday. A cold front will move in from the northwest Tuesday night and push through the region Wednesday. The front will remain stalled south of the area through late week, then lift back north this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/... As of 111 AM Tue...Have delayed onset of SHRA/TS until around 09-11Z, when area of convection across NE SC may impact our srn zones. A few showers and perhaps an iso storm still possible across the OBX rest of tonight, in association with weak low moving up along the NC coast. Previous discussion... As of 1025 PM changes for late evening update. Showers/isolated tstm south of HAT are associated with weak low to mid level low and may impact Outer Banks overnight with additional activity possible for south coast near morning. /Previous discussion/ As of 3 PM Mon...Latest analysis shows weak low and coastal trough off the NC/SC coast this afternoon, with high pressure anchored offshore. Low/trough will weaken this evening. Latest radar imagery shows some isolated showers developing along Hwy 17 this afternoon, with more scattered convection over the central part of the state. Still looks like best chances for isolated showers will be across the eastern forecast area this evening and evening. Though could see an isolated shower or storm drift into the coastal plain. Models show this activity dissipating and radar trends seem to match that well. Expect to see increasing convection moving off the waters early Tuesday morning. Temps will be a bit warmer tonight and moisture increases across the area. Otherwise, warm and muggy with lows in the 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .SHORT TERM /Tuesday/... As of 3 PM Mon...A broad upper trough, shortwave energy and sfc cold front will approach the area Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Tue and Tue night. Best chances along the coast during the first part of the day with convection moving off the water, then coverage likely transitioning inland during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE values increasing to 2500-3000 J/kg and bulk shear 10-20 kt. Some stronger storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours, but at this time it looks like the main threat will heavy rain with the potential for minor flooding. WPC has the area outlooked in a Slight Risk to Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall. Expect PWAT values 2-2.3 inches. Low level thickness values, cloudy skies and SW flow support highs 85-90 degrees. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 am Monday... Tuesday night through Wednesday...A broad trough aloft will move through the area, while a cold front approaches the region from the northwest Tuesday night. As the cold front moves closer to Eastern NC, showers and thunderstorms will become widespread and heavy Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are suggesting the front will stall over the southern portions of our forecast area on Wednesday. It will depend how far south will the front stall and how much dry air advects in behind the cold front, will depend if there is the potential for additional strong to severe storms. Overall, expect additional showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with heavy rainfall which can lead to localized flooding. Expect highs in the upper 80s inland and low/mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night through weekend...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish Wednesday night as drier air advects in as high pressure build in from the north, but some shower activity may linger near the stall frontal boundary on Thursday. Models have the stalled front to our south lifting north on Friday with a low developing along the boundary this weekend. Meanwhile, a significant shortwave trough along the northern stream deepens over the Great Lakes/Midwest with a sfc low developing. At this time confidence is low how the two lows will interact/impact our area. Overall, expect showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 80s inland and low/mid 80s along the coast with overnight lows in the low 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/... As of 111 AM Tue...VFR expected to prevail all sites through overnight hours with isolated showers remaining to east. Approaching shortwave will produce scattered tstm threat by mid morning with increasing through through afternoon. Enough support to indicate VCTS with poss MVFR cigs at times. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 345 AM Monday...Sub- VFR with possible IFR conditions as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms move through the area ahead of the approaching cold front Tuesday night and Wednesday. VFR conditions returns Thursday into Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 1030 PM changes to winds/seas with update. /Previous discussion/ As of 3 PM Mon...Latest obs show variable winds across the waters this afternoon, though generally E to SW winds 5-10 kt with some gusts closer to 15 kt across the outer central waters, with seas 2-3 ft. Southerly winds increase to 10-15 kt tonight with seas building to 2-4 ft. The gradient tightens Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front, with SSW/SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt and seas building to 4-7 ft. SCA continues for the waters south of Oregon Inlet Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night for increasing winds and building seas. Added the Pamlico Sound to the advisory. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt across the northern waters Tue afternoon. Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 3 PM Monday...A cold front will move through the waters Wednesday, with winds gradually veering behind it. N to W winds 10-15 kt early Wed, becoming more NE to SE late Wed 5-15 kt. Front will move south of the waters late Wed night and Thu, stalling to the south through late week. NE winds 5-15 kt Thu, strongest south of Hatteras. Winds will veer to the SE 10-15 knots Friday. Seas will subside by Wednesday afternoon/evening to 3-4 ft and continue through Friday. Small Craft Advisory is in effect south of Oregon Inlet from Tuesday to Wednesday morning. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CQD/TL NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD/TL SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...TL/BM MARINE...JBM/CQD/BM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.