Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 091109 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 709 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will be stalled offshore through Friday. High pressure will build in from the east over the weekend. A cold front will impact the area Monday and Monday night. Weak high pressure briefly builds in Tuesday before the front could lift back northward into our area mid-to-late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 7 AM Friday...Only minor tweaks to once again lower PoPs this afternoon in the northern tier of the CWA. Fog is still being reported at most stations across the area but VIS has been starting to improve over the last hour and will continue to do so. Previous Discussion...As of 4 AM Friday...Later today, one last lobe of vorticity will swing around the bottom of the upper level low that`s been parked over the northeastern CONUS for the past few days. This shortwave trough could serve as enough forcing to kick off some showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms in our northern counties later this afternoon, but guidance has trended drier over night, so decreased PoPs to just slight chance. The biggest change to the forecast with the past two updates has been the lowering of dewpoints this afternoon. Hi- res guidance is in agreement of dewpoints in the low 40s across the coastal plain, which further increases confidence in a drier solution. Highs in the low 80s inland and low/mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Friday...The upper level low in the northeastern CONUS will begin to push offshore and allow for ridging to build in over ENC late tonight and into Saturday morning. This will be the start of much quieter conditions and a beautiful weekend. Overnight Friday looks precip free, but with clear skies, light winds, and possibly enough moisture in the lower atmosphere from afternoon showers, another round of patchy fog is possible for areas in the northern tier of the CWA. Another good radiative cooling night will take lows into the mid 50s inland and low 60s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri...Developing Bermuda high pressure over the weekend brings more summerlike conditions. Then, a cold front brings storms to the area Monday and Monday night. Tuesday is more settled as the front remains south of the area, but unsettled weather may return mid-week as the front could lift back north over ENC. Saturday and Sunday...Building upper ridging and high pressure ridging in from the east will keep dry conditions and above normal temps in place Saturday and Sunday. Overall, a welcomed fair-weather, summerlike weekend. Monday through Friday...Stacked low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes early next week, with the associated cold front bringing widespread showers and storms to ENC. Confidence is increasing in the greatest coverage of showers and storms Monday afternoon through evening/overnight as the primary band of pre- frontal low level moisture traverses the area. Shear will be marginal during this time, but ample instability and DCAPE values expected to approach 700-900 J/kg will bring the potential for some severe thunderstorms, with micro-bursts and medium to large hail being the primary concerns, while lack of updraft longevity is the primary limiting factor. The cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday morning, with waning moisture ahead of the more severe-conducive shear profile that arrives with an upper shortwave during the day Tuesday. Storm coverage Tuesday afternoon will be very limited, but there may be some continued severe potential with any storms that do form. The front could lift back north into the area Wednesday or Thursday, with an unsettled period possible, but significant model variability justifies little more that low end chance POPs generally following typical diurnal patters mid to late week at this point. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 7 AM Friday...All TAF sites are currently MVFR or IFR due to reduced VIS because of fog. VIS has been improving and will continue to do so as the fog burns off. Have all TAF sites returning to VFR by the next hour and remaining VFR through the period. Have continued to mention HZ due to smoke from the Canadian wildfires through most of Friday. LONG TERM /Sat through Wed/... As of 345 Am Fri...VFR prevails through the weekend. An approaching cold front could bring lowering ceilings and the potential for flight restrictions Monday into Monday night, with widespread showers and some thunderstorms also expected. Conditions are expected to improve Tuesday as the front pushes south of the area, but unsettled weather could return midweek.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 445 PM Thursday...Optimal boating conditions continue through the period with variable winds 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas. LONG TERM /Sat through Wed/... As of 345 AM Fri...Light to moderate winds prevail over the weekend as more seasonable Bermuda high pressure sets up. A cold front approaching from the west will bring increasing S to SW winds Sunday night through Monday, with breezy conditions and SCAs potentially needed later Monday into Tuesday. Moderate to breezy winds possible mid to late week as the front could lift back toward the area. Very limited trade swell persists through the period, with local seas mainly reflective of the local wind strength and direction. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...CB/OJC MARINE...CB/OJC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.