Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 151446 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 946 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will across Eastern North Carolina today then lift quickly north of the area tonight pushing a cold front offshore. High pressure will ridge into the region Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 945 AM Thursday...Surface analysis this morning continues to show a strong 1038 mb high centered over New England ridging south down the east coast into NC while low pressure strengthens just off the central South Carolina coast. The low is forecast to move NNE into Eastern NC this afternoon into early evening along/east of Highway 17. This system will produce a variety of impacts across Eastern NC including: 1) strong coastal winds 2) Minor soundside flooding over the western Pamlico Sound 3) heavy rains with 2+ inches of rain possible and 4) the potential for severe thunderstorms. Heavy rains are already beginning to develop across the area late this morning and will continue to increase as the northward moving and slowly deepening low moves into the area and pushes a warm front through much of the region this afternoon. During this period there will be a brief window for severe weather as dewpoints rise to near 70 along the coast destabilizing the coastal airmass. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes given large values of low-level shear despite minimal instability which would be enough to support supercell development. In additional to the severe weather threat, a Flash Flood Watch continues in effect. Latest WPC forecasts show close to 2 inches of rain possible today. This rainfall, in addition to the 2-4 inches that fell Tuesday morning, could lead to localized flooding of low-lying areas. By late afternoon, any threat of severe weather should end and leftover precipitation should quickly move offshore by early evening. The low will produce strong winds along the immediate coast just east of it`s track and will continue the Outer Banks Wind Advisory for gusts to 45 mph. There will again be a large temperature gradient across the area today, with highs surging into the lower to mid 70s SE coast and only around 60 northern coastal plain. Categorical PoPs for most of the day will taper off mid afternoon through early this evening from west to east. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... As of 3 AM Thursday...Any precipitation should be offshore shortly after 00Z (7 PM). Dewpoints should really crash after midnight as cooler and drier air moves over eastern NC behind the quickly departing low. Gusty WNW/NW winds will help drop temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s by morning with lows around 50 on the Outer Banks. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM Thurs...Drier high pressure will build in late week through this weekend, and then a week coastal trough develops by Monday and could bring some rain showers to the coast. High pressure will then build in again through midweek. Temps will generally be near climo. Friday through Sunday...High pressure will build in from the west on Friday, and continue to ridge into Eastern NC this weekend. It will be a bit cooler as much of the US will be under a longwave trough. However, a modest warming trend will be present this weekend, with highs Friday in the mid to upper 50s, and then by Sunday high temps will reach the low to mid 60s across Eastern NC. Low temps will dip to the mid 30s interior, and low to mid 40s near the beaches (except OBX which will remain in upper 40s). Monday through Wednesday...A weak coastal trough will develop early Monday morning, and will bring the threat for showers to coastal areas. Have the best chances of rain through the morning hours, and then taper off PoPs from west to east later in the day. Then, for Tuesday and Wednesday high pressure will build back into the area from the north, with dry conditions expected. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 60s Monday, and then cool down to the mid to upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will be around average in the mid/upper 30s to low/mid 40s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Friday/... As of 630 AM Thursday...Widespread rain has now overtaken most of the area and ceilings are mostly IFR, except MVFR at Kinston. Several hours of low ceilings will continue in light to moderate rain, with the heaviest rain occurring from now through mid- afternoon. Low ceilings will hang on until about midnight when much lower dewpoints advect into the area behind the departing low with skies clearing and VFR conditions likely beyond midnight. Some low-level wind shear will also be possible this afternoon and early evening. Convection will likely stay east of the TAF sites today. Long Term /Friday through Sunday/... As of 230 AM Thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the long term as high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 945 AM Thursday...Surface low continues to strengthen off the South Carolina coast and the gradient between the low and the 1038 mb high over New England will tighten through the day. Already, Gale Force winds are occurring with gusts to 45 knots 30 miles SE of New River and around 40 kt off Duck and Diamond Shoals. Seas have risen to 10 feet off of Duck and Nags Head and 13 feet 30 SE of New River Inlet. Latest NWPS/SWAN model shows winds/seas peaking around midday at 15 feet. With these rough conditions, will continue the High Surf Advisory as Gale Warnings remain in effect for all coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound through early this evening. While winds may subside just a bit this evening, they should increase again overnight as another surge occurs behind the exiting low. Overall, very poor marine conditions can be expected through the remainder of the week. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 230 AM Thurs...Strong winds continue Friday morning with winds W 25-30 kts, with gusts to 35 kts. Winds will subside through the morning hours, becoming W 15-20 kts by the afternoon. Winds will become the N/NE 5-15 kts Saturday and Sunday, and then a coastal trough develops Monday, and causes winds to turn to the NW at 10-15 kts. Seas will initially be 6-10 ft. Friday morning, but will subside to 4-6 ft by mid afternoon. Seas will then become mostly 2-4 ft. Saturday through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 945 AM Thu...Strong easterly onshore flow will lead to waves in surf zone building to 8 feet or greater...espcly from Cape Lookout N. High Surf Advisory continues into this evening from Carteret county north to Outer Banks. The strong easterly flow will also produce minor soundside flooding over the western Pamlico Sound with water levels 2-3 ft above normal. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ029-044- 079-090-091. Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ045>047- 080-081-092>095-098-103-104. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ093>095. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NCZ095-103- 104. Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for NCZ103-104. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135-150-152- 154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ130-131. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...JME/CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...TL/SGK AVIATION...CTC/SGK MARINE...JME/CTC/SGK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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