Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 100022 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 822 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain offshore this afternoon and tonight. A cold front will approach from the west overnight, and then cross the area Monday night. High pressure will build in mid week to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 815 PM Sun...Little changes for the evening update. Breezy and mild overnight with increasing clouds and perhaps a stray shower late. Previous discussion...High pressure will remain off the NC coast through tomorrow morning, as a cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. This will increasingly strengthen the gradient, with winds becoming stronger and gusting to 30-35 mph across the coast overnight. Increasing mid level moisture will bring in clouds overnight, and expect temps to remain very mild, and not drop much past the upper 60s to low 70s. A few scattered showers will be possible by early tomorrow morning across the coastal plain, as moisture continues to increase ahead of the front.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 230 PM Sun...Warm and humid conditions are expected tomorrow ahead of a slow moving cold front. Warm 850 mb temps 10-15 C along with some peaks of sun will yield highs in the low to mid 80s early in the day out ahead of the front, which is likely to move into the northern portion of the forecast area by early afternoon. Hi res guidance has come in a bit faster, so have sped up the arrival time of the boundary through the area over the afternoon to early evening hours. Temperatures will plummet into the 60s immediately behind the front, with winds shifting to the north. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are also expected out ahead and along the front. The area continues to be in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms due to the potential for damaging winds gusts and isolated large hail. Though there will be moderate wind shear in place, there is some uncertainty in how much instability will develop out ahead of the front, which will be a limiting factor in the severe threat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 PM Sunday...Another fairly active pattern through the week: strong cold front approaches Monday, building high pressure midweek leading to a late-season CAD event, and another weak shortwave trough to affect the area to end the week. Monday Night...Showers behind the front linger and potential for thunder becomes limited to the frontal boundary as it crosses coastal areas overnight. Midweek...The cold front stalls well to our south through midweek with high pressure building in from the north setting up a late-season CAD event keeping temps cool, highs in the upper 60s/low 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s. Guidance is catching on to the CAD event and subsequently are trending their temps down. Have kept temps on the colder side of trusted guidance but have not gone as low as some of the extreme outliers. Thursday and Friday...High pressure shifts offshore the VA coast overnight Thursday. Guidance has backed off on the deepening of a coastal low and instead are showing weak shortwave troughing further south and not deepening the system until it is well offshore of SC. PoPs were lowered a bit to reflect this. Thunder was removed from the grids for now with instability being severely limited. Weekend...Drying trend with temps warming back up, highs reaching the 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 8 PM Sunday...Pred VFR conditions expected through 18z Monday. SSW wind gusts around 20 to 25 kts will continue into Mon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening, with sub-VFR possible. Better chances for widespread sub-VFR conditions after 00z Monday evening. LONG TERM /Mon night through Thursday/... As of 120 PM Sunday...Cold front crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday with gusty SW winds ahead of it. Rain and tstorms ahead of the front with showers lingering behind the front overnight bring potential for widespread sub-VFR flight cats. Sub-VFR cigs may linger through Tue morning. VFR prevails after FROPA with high pressure building in and Nerly winds through Wed. Air mass in place in the wake of the front appears too dry to allow for fog development. Chance of showers Thurs building in from south to north through the end of the week.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/... As of 245 PM Sun...Strong winds will continue tonight and through most of tomorrow as SCAs are about to go into effect for all the coastal and inland waters. Winds this afternoon are quickly strengthening and will become SSW 15-25 kts through the evening hours. Then tonight winds will build further to 20-30 kts with a few gusts close to Gale Force possible. Strong winds continue overnight, with winds subsiding somewhat tomorrow morning to SW 15-25 kts. A cold front will slowly cross the coastal waters tomorrow afternoon through early evening with winds turning to the N at 10-20 kts immediately behind it. Seas are currently 2-4 ft, but will be building quickly this evening to 5-7 ft, and then peak at 6-8 ft early tomorrow morning. Seas slowly subside to 4-6 ft by early afternoon, but don`t drop below 6 ft until tomorrow evening. LONG TERM /Mon through Thursday/... As of 345 PM Sunday...Front sweeps offshore late Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in winds veering northerly and weakening through Tuesday. High pressure dominates mid-week, improving conditions until a shortwave trough transitions offshore of SC, building seas in the southern waters through the end of the period. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK/SK SHORT TERM...SGK LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...SK/CQD/CEB MARINE...SGK/CEB

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