Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 230842 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 442 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move into the area late tonight bringing unsettled weather to the area tomorrow. The front will stall offshore through mid week, then lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another cold front will impact the area late week and early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 200 AM Monday...A subtle s/w located over Cape Hatteras has been responsible for an uptick in shower activity, and even a few thunderstorms, across the southern waters over the past 1-3 hours. This activity should continue to push east through the night as the slow-moving s/w pushes further out into the Atlantic. A brief period of subsident and slightly drier air in its wake should limit the risk of additional, widespread shower or thunderstorm activity. Meanwhile, a weakening frontal boundary continues to slowly sag south towards northern NC at this time, but is losing upper level support. Some short term guidance suggest this front could be a focus for renewed shower activity through the night. However, given the modest subsidence and low-mid level drying noted above, the increase in shower activity may be overdone in some model guidance. Pops will be adjusted over the next several hours to reflect this thinking. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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As of 400 AM Monday...The SFC low that moved ashore along the north- central Gulf Coast late last night will continue to lift N/NE through the Southeast States today and into the southern Appalachians by tonight. Along and east of this low, a plume of better low-mid level moisture will get pulled north into a SFC boundary that will be stalled west to east across North Carolina. Initially, the focus for steadier rain and scattered thunderstorms will be from central Alabama NE into western NC. With time, however, daytime heating amid a moist boundary layer will lead to a destabilizing airmass and weakening inhibition along and south of the SFC boundary, supporting an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. Short-term model guidance differ on the placement of the SFC front, and there is some potential for a mid-level dryslot to attempt to nose into parts of eastern SC/southeast NC on the east side of the northward moving, and potentially deepening, SFC low. While these factors lead to some uncertainty on the exact placement of the highest risk of showers/storms today, the general idea is for convection to develop along the frontal boundary from central into eastern NC by early to mid-afternoon. Storm motions, while modest, should be parallel to the SFC boundary/instability axis, leading to the potential for some training of storms. Meanwhile, a relatively higher PWat airmass for this time of year (1.50-1.75") should support heavier rainfall rates where convection occurs. ENC is still running low for precip of late, which should help keep the flooding threat lower. However, the heavier rainfall rates and the potential for some training of storms for a time may allow some ponding of water/minor flooding to occur, especially in any urban area. Where/if training occurs, HREF max fields suggest amounts of 2-4" are possible. Regarding the severe weather potential today, light SE/E SFC winds beneath modest westerly flow aloft may support deep layer shear of 20-30kt. This combined with SBCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg may support a few stronger thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts and hail. At this time, the tornado threat looks low due to the lack of better low-level shear, and a less favorable storm mode. Temp-wise, I lowered highs for today north of the front due to the cooler onshore flow and widespread clouds.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sun...Unsettled weather expected through the period with more seasonable temperatures. A cold front will linger offshore through mid week, with a stronger front expected to impact the area late week and early next weekend. Still looks unsettled through much of the period. A cold front will stall offshore through mid week with waves of low pressure developing along it. This would keep the area on the cool side of the boundary with moist low level NE-E flow. Precip becomes scattered, even isolated at times, Tue through Thu, likely enhanced during diurnal peak heating. Cloud cover, precip and NE-E flow will keep temps near or below normal with highs in the 70s/80s. Coolest day looks like Tue with widespread clouds and NE flow which will keep most areas in the 70s, maybe even upper 60s for the northern Outer Banks. Boundary will likely lift back north as a warm front late Wed and Wed night while complex low pressure strengthens over the Mid-West lifting towards the Great Lakes. The cold front associated with this system is currently progged to push through the eastern NC late week/early next weekend. 00z GFS and EC remain in pretty good agreement with fropa this far out in time. Capped pops at high chance late week for now. Slightly cooler and drier air expected behind the front for next weekend. Temps will remain near climo. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Monday night/... As of 200 AM Monday...A weak frontal boundary will sag slowly south across ENC over the next 12-18 hours, eventually slowing down and stalling by Monday evening. Low-level moistening ahead of the front may lead to a period of MVFR CIGs over the next few hours, however the better chance comes Monday afternoon into Monday night as moisture advection and lift increases along the front. This will also support an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA and reduced VIS. By Monday evening or Monday night, a SCT/BKN layer of low clouds may develop, with IFR conditions not out of the realm of possibility. For now, I kept with widespread MVFR conditions and a SCT layer below 1k ft. Lastly, as the front moves through, a NE/E wind will develop, possibly increasing some Monday night. LONG TERM /Monday Night through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sun...Behind a cold front which will stall just offshore through mid week, there is increasing confidence for long duration sub-VFR conditions. Guidance shows cigs lowering to MVFR, possibly IFR, Monday night behind the front and persisting into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered Tue through Fri.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/... As of 300 AM Monday...A compact upper level wave will continue to slowly move east of the southern waters this morning, accompanied by showers, isolated thunderstorms, and occasionally wind gusts to around 25kt. As this disturbance moves off to the east, a weak cold front will move south through the northern waters today and into the central/southern waters this evening. The front will then stall through tonight over, or just south, of the southern waters. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will flip around to northeasterly/easterly through tonight. In general, seas will be 2-4 ft both ahead of and behind the front. Wind gusts of 20-25kt are likely across the northern waters where the northeasterly flow will be the strongest behind the front. However, conditions look too marginal for a SCA headline at this time. Along and south of the front, there will be an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 3 PM Sun...Winds remain NE 10-20 kt Monday night through Tuesday, with seas mostly 3-4 ft. E/NE winds 5-15 kt continue Wed with seas 2-5 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. The front will lift northward as a warm front late Wed and Wed night, with winds becoming SSE 5-15 kt. Southerly flow 10-15 kt will continue Thu with seas 2-5 ft. SW flow strengthens Friday with Small craft conditions possible.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...RM/SK MARINE...RM/SK

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