Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 201624 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure to the northeast will move east this afternoon. Low pressure developing along a warm front will approach from the south today and move across the area tonight and Saturday. A warm and moist southerly flow between low pressure to the west and high pressure over the Atlantic will produce unsettled weather from late this weekend through much of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 1220 PM Friday...Light precipitation now impacting the southern tier of counties of the MHX CWA and should slowly shift inland through the afternoon as low pressure continues to take shape off the South Carolina coast. Have raised PoPs to categorical over the southern zones for the afternoon. Precipitable water from the 12Z MHX sounding was right at 2 inches, so heavy downpours will be the primary threat through this afternoon. The precipitation should gradually move into the northern CWA by mid afternoon. Cloud cover should hold maximum temperatures in the low/mid 80s for this afternoon. Winds will remain E/NE at 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts near the Sounds and Ocean.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM Friday...Models have generally trended a bit more inland with surface low track which would result in more of a severe weather threat. GFS appears a bit too far inland and NAM too slow, thus leaned to blend of previous forecast and ECMWF with track closer to coast. This will result in more of a heavy rain threat mainly east of Hwy 17 but still some concern for severe threat along coast with low moving up along warm front and shear increasing late which could result in some rotating cells off the water. Adjusted QPF to indicate widespread 1 inch amounts eastern half of area. Repeating cells off water could result in localized 2-3 inch amounts along coast. Min temps mainly 70-75. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 305 AM Friday...An area of low pressure will move northeast along the Carolina coast Saturday. A warm and moist southerly flow will develop thereafter due to low pressure to the west and high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean, leading to unsettled weather conditions from Sunday through much of next week. Saturday...Low pressure will move slowly northeast across coastal eastern NC Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area with this system with heavy rain being the main threat as PWATs build above 2". Expect a sharp precip gradient largely dependent upon track of the low through the area, with highest amounts along the coast/east of HWY 17. Storm total rainfall could exceed 2" in locations by the evening. If the low lifts northeast faster, similar to the GFS/WRF-ARW guidance, there could be a window for clearing and thus modest destabilization that could support severe thunderstorms. While the SPC has our area in a "Marginal" severe weather risk, shear remains the limiting factor for severe storms Saturday afternoon. Max temps will remain in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday through Thursday...The surface low mentioned above will lift northeast of the area Saturday evening, with deep, warm, and moist southerly flow developing in its wake through much of the upcoming week between low pressure to the west and broad western Atlantic high pressure. The upper pattern this period becomes favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms, most widespread during peak heating with a persistent mid level trough over the eastern US. Guidance indicates the potential for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through mid week. Will continue to highlight severe/flood potential in HWO. Temperatures Sunday through Thursday will be close to climatological normals, ranging from highs near 90 inland to mid 80s for the coast. Minimum temps will range from the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through 12Z Saturday/... As of 740 AM Friday...VFR expected to prevail into mid-morning, then deteriorating conditions rest of the day into tonight with widespread showers/scattered tstms spreading over area from south. High pressure to N-NE will gradually move east today allowing frontal boundary to south to lift north as a warm front with developing low pressure moving up along the boundary late today into this evening. Scattered showers/isolated tstms expected to develop over southern sections this morning and spread north, with widespread activity this afternoon into evening leading to mainly MVFR CIGs and VSBYs. Good coverage will continue tonight with some period of IFR likely in heavier downpours. Long Term/Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 315 AM Friday...Periodic Sub-VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday as an unsettled pattern develops across Eastern NC. A surface low will move through the area late tonight through Saturday with southerly flow developing in its wake that will last through next week. && .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1220 PM Friday...Current marine forecast on track with generally E winds at 15 to occasionally 20 knots with seas hovering around 3-5 feet. Winds should gradually veer to more SE later this afternoon. Leaned to blend of previous forecast and 00Z ECMWF for surface low track along coast tonight. Stronger southerly winds expected tonight with low near Cape Lookout by Sat morning. SCA winds and seas expected to develop southern and central waters overnight and northern waters Sat morning. Based on an early look at the 12Z NAM and GFS, have added the Pamlico Sound to the SCA starting at 06z tonight. Followed NWPS for seas with heights remaining 3-5 ft today, then building to 4-6 ft tonight. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 300 AM Friday...Low end SCA conditions are expected over the waters for much of the period. Moderate SE-S flow associated with surface low pressure moving slowly across the waters Saturday with seas building to 4 to 7 ft over the southern and central waters. Then Sunday through Wednesday, moderate S/SW winds 10-20 kt develop in the low`s wake, producing 4 to 6 ft seas, highest for the outer fringes of the coastal waters.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ135-152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...DAG/JBM/SGK MARINE...DAG/CTC/JBM

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