Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 160803 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 403 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A diffuse front bisecting the area early this morning will retreat north of the region today. Weak high pressure will build into the region through mid week. Then, the area will be between a strengthening trough on the lee of the Appalachians, and high pressure well offshore, into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 315 AM Tuesday...Upper ridging builds over the area today with surface high pressure centered offshore and lee troughing across the piedmont. A weak diffuse boundary across the northern tier will lift north/dissipate this morning with light southerly winds across the area today. It will be another hot day with little change in the airmass and if anything it will be a touch warmer, especially across NE sections where winds will no longer be onshore. High expected in the mid to upper 90s inland and low to mid 90s near the coast. Heat indices are expected to peak around 105-110 this afternoon and will continue the Heat Advisory for the entire CWA. It will continue to be quite unstable with MUCAPE peaking around 3000-3500 J/Kg this afternoon with increasing moisture in the column as PW values increase to around 2 inches. Isolated to scattered convection is expected this afternoon with initiation primarily on the sea breeze boundary, but could be enhanced some late afternoon as models showing weak shortwave energy riding over the ridge into the area. Some storms could be strong given the instability but shear will only be around 10-15 kt and most storms should remain sub-severe. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Tuesday...Convection should dissipate through the evening with loss of surface heating but shortwave energy ridging over the ridge across the area could keep isolated showers or storms continuing through the overnight. While some models showing a few storms continuing after midnight, most are dry and will keep minimal PoPs at this time. Another sultry night expected with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday...A typical summer surface pattern will persist into early next this week with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and a trough of low pressure inland as upper ridging persists across the southern US. This will result in a southerly/southwesterly flow of hot and humid air across Eastern North Carolina into early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur mainly in the afternoon and evening hours each day with better coverage Thu into Fri as the remnants of Barry move through the mid Atlantic. Wednesday...Hot and very humid weather is expected with a mainly afternoon/evening diurnal convective regime. Eastern NC will remain located between high pressure offshore and a weak lee-side trough developing inland. 850 MB temps are forecast to be AOA 20C which would support highs in the mid to upper 90s. The combination of the heat and humidity will produce Heat Index values around 105 degrees in the afternoon. The upper ridging should tend to limit widespread convective development, so will continue 20-30% PoPs as the models continue to depict precip. Thursday and Friday...The remnants of TC Barry are progged to become absorbed into mid-level westerlies as it lifts into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday with the mid-level circulation opening into a wave and pushing across the East Coast Thursday with the weakening surface low lifting north of the area along a front. Continued unstable conditions across the area with an increase in moisture and better cyclonic flow Thu/Thu night and deeper moisture into at least early Fri which should result in a better chance for showers and storms across the area. Will continue 40% PoPs both days. Continued hot and very humid with highs in the low to mid 90s and Heat Index values around 105 degrees. Sultry lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday through Monday...Continued hot and very humid. Highs in the mid 90s inland/low 90s coast with the potential for upper 90s inland Sat and Sunday as 850 temps are forecast in the low 20s C. Heat index values in excess of 105 degrees will be possible over the weekend and around 105 degrees Mon. Scattered mainly afternoon/evening showers and storms are expected. Lows will continue in the sultry mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...With mostly clear skies and calm winds patchy light fog will be possible through daybreak, otherwise pred VFR conditions are expected this morning. Isol to sct convection expected again this afternoon, mainly along the sea breeze as it migrates inland, but could be enhanced by weak mid-level energy late this afternoon and evening. Guidance is showing more cloud cover tonight which may preclude fog development, but low levels will continue to be moist with light/calm winds so cannot rule out patchy fog once again. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 320 AM Tuesday...Typical summertime pattern this period with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland, with mainly isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Wed and scattered showers and storms Thu and Fri. Patchy fog or stratus will be possible early each morning, esp. in areas that receive rain. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 345 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain centered offshore with a trough across the piedmont. A weak boundary will lift north/dissipate this morning with light and variable winds this morning becoming S around 10-15 kt by late this afternoon and tonight. Seas will be around 1-2 ft today and build to 2-3 ft tonight. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 320 AM Tuesday...The pressure gradient will be tightening mid through late week as the inland surface trough strengthens. This will result in moderate SW flow 15-20 kt developing late Wed and persisting into Fri night. This will cause seas to build from 2-3 ft Wed to 3-4 ft Wed night and 3-5 ft Fri and Fri night. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions in gusts to 25 kt and 5-6 ft seas over the outer waters will be possible over the southern and central marine zones Thu night into Fri night. The latest NWPS and WW3 wave models were forecasting seas to 5 ft, but just a slight increase in wind speeds would result in seas reaching advisory criteria. Sat winds are forecast to subside to 10-15 kt with seas mainly 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199- 203>205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/SK

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