Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 200306 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1006 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front approaching the area tonight will move through tomorrow morning. Arctic high pressure will then build in from the west early next week. Another cold front will approach from the west midweek and move offshore late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 10 pm Sat...A batch of showers will pass by the Outer Banks over the next couple of hours, with only isolated activity across the remainder of the forecast area. Bulk of rain and possible thunder expected well after midnight. No changes made. Deep moisture advection will ensue overnight as deep layer southerly flow fills in ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread showers are expected to overspread the area overnight through early Sunday morning within the primary band of moisture brought into the region on the back of a strong pre-frontal LLJ. Modest instability may develop as Dew Points surge to around 60 degrees, and the possibility for isolated thunder continues in the forecast for all of the area. Any severe threat will be limited mainly to coastal areas from Carteret County to Oregon Inlet, where dew points could briefly climb into the mid-60s around sunrise tomorrow morning, prompting greater instability based in the low levels to develop more rigorous convection to become organized within ample deep layer shear. Accordingly, the immediate coast has been included within a marginal risk of severe weather from SPC. Gusty winds and possibly an isolated tornado are the primary concerns within the strongest storms. Even outside of storms, gusty winds will exist through the pre-dawn hours, especially along the coast, as the core of the strong LLJ passes overhead. Temperatures will remain very mild overnight, and should rise a few degrees into the mid 60s before falling back into the mid to upper 50s by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sat...The cold front will work through the area, tapering significant precip chances from west to east through the mid to late morning hours tomorrow. Wind speeds will wane briefly for several hours behind the front before arctic high pressure building in tightens the gradient again, with breezy northwest winds bringing efficient CAA across the area by late afternoon. The daily high temp will be achieved for most locations early in the day, with temps falling as CAA strengthens by the time of the normal afternoon diurnal temp maximum. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 PM Saturday...Sharply colder Sunday night and Monday as the coldest air to date of this winter barrels into the area behind a strong cold front. Dry weather is expected Sunday night through Tuesday night. Another cold front will affect the region Wednesday and Thursday with a return to mild and wetter conditions. Turning dry and gradually cooler late in the week into the weekend. Sunday night through Tuesday...CAA advection is extreme Sunday night as Arctic high pressure builds over the area from the north and this will cause temperatures to plummet to around 20 NW to mid 20s coast by Monday morning. The combination of strong NW winds behind the front and the cold temperatures will result in bitterly cold wind chill values of 8-15 degrees Monday morning. Arctic high pressure continues to build over the area Monday with brisk NW flow resulting in very cold high temps of only 30-35 degrees. NW winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts expected along the Outer Banks Sun night and this will produce minor water level rises for the soundside locations. Good radiational cooling should occur Mon night with diminishing winds setting the stage for another cold night with lows 15 to 20 cooler inland spots to 20s beaches. Warm advection begins Tue mainly aloft as low lvls will be slow to modify as strong high pres passes just to the N. Cont below normal with highs mainly 40 to 45. Wednesday through Sat...Another low pres system will track NW of region mid week with trailing front moving into the area Thu and offshore late week. Quite mild ahead of the front Wed and Thu with highs mainly low to mid 60s. Best rain chcs will be Wed night into early Thu and have likely pops this time. As front pushes offshore later Thu/Thu night precip shld end from W to E. Mainly dry late week into the weekend as high pres builds in. Temps will cool to upr 40s and lower 50s most spots Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday /... As of 10 pm Sat...EWN and OAJ have improved to VFR. PGV and ISO still LIFR, but expect improving conditions there as well in the next few hours as southerly flow increases. As the cold front approaches the region late tonight, expect rain to become widespread with MVFR to IFR condition developing; rain can be heavy at times with isolated thunder possible also. LLWS conditions will be possible at all TAF sites overnight. Conditions will improve to VFR by tomorrow afternoon with gusty winds up to 25 knots. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 230 PM Saturday...High confidence in VFR Sun night thru Tue as cold dry arctic air spread in. Gusty NW winds likely all terminals Sun night into Mon. Moisture wil surge back into the region Wed and Thu ahead of next cold front and expect threat of some sub VFR...espcly Wed night and Thu when best coverage of shra expected. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 10 pm Sat...No changes made to current forecast. Overall, the next 24 to 36 hours will bring very dangerous marine conditions. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly this evening and overnight as winds veer southerly and increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Gale force winds and large seas will prevail for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet beginning early Sunday morning. Breezy conditions will exist over the rest of the marine waters as well. Winds will decrease to moderate levels briefly tomorrow morning in the immediate wake of the cold front, before becoming northwest and increasing beginning tomorrow afternoon as arctic high pressure muscles its way into the area. Gale Warnings have been issued for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound to cover the pre and post- frontal winds, with Small Craft Advisories in effect elsewhere. Additionally, a Gale Watch remains in effect for the Albemarle Sound/Alligator River, where Gale Force winds are expected to be limited to the post-frontal CAA beginning tomorrow evening. Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/... As of 230 PM Saturday...Intense cold advection will lead to gale force winds most wtrs Sun night. Sustained winds mainly 20 to 30 kts with gusts 30 to 40 kts. Winds diminish grad Mon as high pres builds closer...speeds shld reach 15 to 25 kts N and 10 to 20 kt S late. Winds cont to diminish Mon night and Tue as high pres crosses just to the N...expect 10 to 20 kt winds early Tue then 10 kts or less late. Winds turn SSW Wed and grad increase to 10 to 20 kts ahead of next front. SSW winds peak at 20 to 30 kts with some gusts to 35 kt ahead of front Wed night and early Thu. Winds become more WSW 15 to 25 kt late Thu as front reaches cst. Seas will be in the 6 to 10 ft range Sun night into early Mon then subside to 4 to 7 ft late Mon...highest central and N. Seas subside to 3 to 6 ft early Tue then drop further to 2 to 4 ft late Tue into Tue night. Seas build back to 3 to 5 ft late Wed and reach 7 to 11 ft late Wed night and Thu as SSW winds peak ahead of cold front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 PM Sat...Gusty southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will result in abnormally high water levels for portions of Dare County along the Roanoke and Croatan Sounds, as well as the Carteret County coastline west of Cape Lookout, early Sunday morning. Inundation is generally expected to be less than a foot for very low lying areas. Additionally, persistent strong northwest winds behind a cold front late Sunday into Sunday night will result in elevated water levels along the sound side of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands. Inundation is generally expected to be less than a foot for very low lying areas. If forecast inundation levels increase to 1 foot or more for the pre-frontal or post-frontal wind events, a Coastal Flood Advisory will be issued for the impacted areas. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ135. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for AMZ130-131. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 5 PM EST Sunday for AMZ130- 131. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ152- 154. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ156- 158. Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...HSA/CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...RF/JME AVIATION...HSA/BM/RF MARINE...HSA/CB/RF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.