Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 211731 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 131 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered over the region this weekend, will drift offshore while continuing to influence the weather early next week. A dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday with high pressure building back in through the rest of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 130 PM Saturday...High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to produce quiet, dry weather across eastern NC through tonight. Expect mostly sunny skies and light winds today, with highs reaching the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday...With persistent high pressure in control, expect a continuation of clear skies and light winds. This could result in a few shallow fog patches inland after midnight. Lows inland will be in the mid to upper 50s and low to mid 60s coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 AM Saturday...Upper ridging continues over the area Sunday with surface high pressure centered offshore continuing to ridge into the Southeast through Monday. Dry weather continues with SW flow bringing temps a few degrees above normal. A robust shortwave approaches the area Monday and crosses the area Monday night into Tuesday with an attendant cold front moving across the area late Tuesday. Moisture still looks limited with best dynamics staying north of the area and guidance is showing little to no precip at this time and will keep minimal PoPs in the forecast. Dry and warm conditions continue through the rest of the week as high pressure builds back into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday then slides offshore Wednesday night. Temps are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. SW flow will bring additional warming Thursday and possibly into Friday. A cold front approaches the area late in the week but guidance not in best agreement as to when it will push through the area with EC on the faster side pushing the front through Friday and GFS/CMC later in the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Tomorrow Afternoon/... As of 130 PM Sat...Sunny skies and VFR conditions will continue this afternoon. Mostly calm winds and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling conditions again tonight, which will lead to the possibility of MVFR fog and possible brief IFR fog at inland locations including TAF sites KPGV, KISO, and marginally KOAJ. Radiational fog will burn off quickly tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions returning along with clear skies and light winds. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 330 AM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the long term with high pressure dominating much of the period. Could see patchy shallow ground fog during the early morning hours as good radiational cooling conditions will be present. A cold front is progged to push across rtes Tuesday but moisture will be limited and precip chances remain low. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 610 AM Saturday...High pressure will remain over the waters through tonight. Thus, light winds are expected across the waters through tonight with speeds 10 kt or less forecast south of Oregon Inlet. A period of SW 10-15 kt winds are possible north of Oregon Inlet late today and this evening. The main concern is the continuing elevated and hazardous long period swell of 5-8 ft, highest north of Ocracoke Inlet. This swell will be slow to subside so will continue the current SCA`s through this evening. Overnight seas will subside to 3-5 ft all waters. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 345 AM Saturday...High pressure will be centered offshore Sunday and Monday with S to SW around 5-15 kt. A cold front is progged to push across the water Tuesday with winds becoming N to NE around 10 kt. High pressure migrates across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday with wind around 10 kt gradually veering to E to SE by late in the day. Seas will be around 2-4 ft Sunday into Monday, then build to 3-5 ft late Monday through Wednesday as swell from TC Jerry move into the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 610 AM Saturday..Long period swells will cont through the weekend, producing an enhanced rip current threat along all beaches, with the highest risk north of Cape Lookout today. Although the swell will be slowly diminishing today, have decided to continue the High Surf Advisory into the afternoon for the next high tide cycle due to very long periods, >12 seconds, of the aforementioned swell. Significant wave runup from this swell could result in beach erosion along vulnerable stretches of the Outer Banks around the time of the high tide. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 203>205. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SGK SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...SK/MS AVIATION...SK/SGK MARINE...JME/SK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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