Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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835 FXUS62 KMHX 231920 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 320 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will pass through the area tonight and Sunday. A storm system will impact the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure building down the East Coast will then dominate later Tuesday into the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 320 pm Sat...High pressure centered just to the northwest this afternoon will be centered directly on top of the forecast area by early Sunday morning. Breezy west to northwest winds this afternoon will quickly drop to calm throughout early this evening. Excellent radiational cooling will take place overnight with clear skies, calm winds in an extremely dry atmosphere. Have upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning, and added in mainland Dare County. Low temps around 30 along the coastal plain to lower 30s close to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 320 pm Sat...The center of the high will shift off the coast during the day with a light south to southwest flow developing in the late morning into the afternoon. Still a very dry atmosphere in place which will allow temps to climb quickly in the morning into the afternoon. High temps will reach the upper 50s/lower 60s northeast and Outer Banks, upper 60s to near 70 elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 320 PM Sat...Unsettled to start the period as a complex low pressure area and front affect the region, then dry high pressure builds in with mainly dry and seasonably mild temps second half of the period. Sunday night through Tuesday...Sunday night will continue dry as area is under influence of higher hts, though a complex and atypical upper level patten will emerge early next week as the area of greatest energy associated with a shortwave aloft slides from the northern jet stream across the Missouri Valley early Monday to the southern stream across the Carolinas by Tuesday morning. The result is a complex and broad frontal system that will impact the East Coast Monday into early Tuesday. Locally, moisture advection will be strongest Monday as we will be located within the warm sector of the approaching system. Surface low pressure will slide across the Appalachians into the Carolinas later Monday. Guidance is resolving a complex low by the time it reaches our area Monday night, with the primary low center passing to our south, but a secondary low possibly forming near/over eastern NC. While exact details and characteristics of the rainfall remain uncertain, the wettest period should be late Monday afternoon through overnight Monday, when column destabilization is greatest ahead of and near the passing low. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible, though instability appears too low for a severe threat. Gusty winds and some coastal flood concerns will emerge late Mon night and esp Tue, as low offshore in tandem with building high across the Great Lakes/Mid Atlantic strengthen gradient winds. Wind adv criteria (gusts > 45mph) may be met for coastal counties for a time, and may lead to minor coastal flooding as persistent NNE winds occur through at least Tue night. Wednesday through Saturday...High pressure ridging down the east coast will dominate locally, keeping a mainly dry forecast in place for the second half of the workweek as low pressure stalls well offshore. Northeast winds will prevail, though they will gradually diminish through the period. Accordingly, temps will trend from below normal Wednesday to above normal by Friday. High pres should finally ridge overhead by next weekend, bringing very pleasant spring-like conditions to the region. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Sun/ As of 320 pm Sat...VFR/SKC through the short term. Northwest winds will quickly diminish to calm early this evening and continue through mid-morning Sunday. Light south to southwest winds will develop by midday Sunday. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 320 PM Sat...VFR conditions will prevail through Sun night. Flight restrictions are then possible Monday through Tuesday morning as a broad and complex storm system impacts the area. VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds arrive during the day Tuesday, likely continuing through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sun/ As of 320 pm Sat...Seas have subsided below 6 feet in the Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke zones have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory that was set to expire at 5 pm. High pressure will pass through the marine zones tonight and Sunday. Winds this evening of 5-15 knots will diminish to 5-10 knots after midnight, continuing Sunday. Seas tonight will be 2-4 feet north of Oregon Inlet and south of Ocracoke, 3-5 feet in between. Seas Sunday will be 2-3 feet throughout. Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 320 PM Sat...Southerly flow will increase Sun night ahead of a complex low pressure/frontal system approaching from the west. The cold front/low pressure area will pass off the coast Tuesday morning. The low will deepen offshore Tuesday as high pressure builds inland, resulting in strong north to northeast winds developing. Gale conditions are likely on Tuesday into Tuesday night as low pressure remains stalled well offshore, keeping the gradient tight locally. Winds will slowly diminish on Wed though likely persist in the strong SCA range. Seas will remain fairly benign Sunday night through Monday night, though will build slightly in response to developing southerly/southwesterly winds in the 10-20 kt range, building up to as high as 4 ft late Mon night in choppy wind swell. Strong northeasterly winds will bring rapidly increasing northeast windswell as the low/frontal system moves well offshore Tuesday, and seas will become large and dangerous Tuesday through Wednesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>095-098. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...HSA SHORT TERM...HSA LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...HSA/TL MARINE...HSA/TL

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