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172
FXUS62 KMHX 100720
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
320 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area late today and tonight,
followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will
come through around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Fri...Latest analysis shows weak sfc low and
attendant fronts draped through the Mid- Atlantic and back
through the Gulf States, as potent MCS continues to push through
southern MS/AL early this morning.

Sfc low will continue to strengthen to the north today as cold
front approaches eastern NC. The environment seems to be more
favorable for convection this afternoon and evening, with
potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the southern portions of the
area to a Slight Risk of svr wx this afternoon and evening.
Unlike the last few days, CAMs are in pretty good agreement with
the timing and placement of convection, showing scattered to
numerous showers and storms developing after 18z, with best
coverage across the southern half of the forecast area. Stronger
forcing expected today with shortwave trough moving through,
sfc cold front and the seabreeze. Despite the marginal
instability (ML CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg), strong deep layer shear
40-50 kt, and mid level lapse rates 6.5-7 C/km, will support
the threat for organized storms...with primary threats of
damaging winds and hail. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will
also be possible, which most of the area could certainly use.
Timing of stronger storms looks to be be between 3-10 PM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 3 AM Fri...Svr threat will likely linger through late
evening, with ongoing convection ahead of the cold front. Front
will push offshore by midnight, taking convection with it and
low level northerly flow developing. Drier and cooler air moving
in behind the front late tonight, with dewpoints and lows
falling into the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As 315 AM Fri...Drier and cooler weather forecast for this
weekend as high pressure ridging builds in from the south and
west. More unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed as a
deepening low pressure tracks across the SOutheast and Mid-
Atlantic with high pressure quickly building in behind this low
on Thursday.

Sat and Sun... Not much change to the forecast for this weekend.
Cold front and associated low pressure will be well offshore by
Sat morning with blustery N`rly winds in it`s wake. Upper
troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this weekend while a
cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region begins to push
E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave will round the
base of this troughing on Saturday before ridging finally
begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the surface low
pressure with attendant fronts will be diving SE`wards across
the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic on Sat before
moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the region while
high pressure ridge will gradually build in from the south and
west.

With Hi-Res CAM guidance coming into range and some of it showing at
least a few light showers lingering into Sat morning with
additional chances potentially Sat night as the low makes its
closest point of aprroach I did add in some SChc PoP`s at 15%
for maybe a stray shower or two during Sat across portions of
the OBX and our far northern zones where the best chance for
precip if any where to occur. Will say given the dry NW`rly flow
guidance may be overdone on these chances but felt it
reasonable enough to add SChc in for now. This is a low
confidence precip forecast so stay tuned to future updates as we
get closer to the weekend. Cloud cover should mainly be over
the coastal locales, esp OBX, but may be some bkn diurnal strato
cu all areas with the cold air aloft. Highs only getting into
the 70s each day while lows dip down into the 50s each night.

Mon into the end of next week...Upper ridging finally builds over
the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as
previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks
E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed before troughing pushes
offshore on Thurs. Associated shortwave also quickly pushes E`wards
across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Tue into Wed
before pushing offshore on Thurs bringing our next threat for
unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes its way
E`wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains with low
pressure and its associated fronts quickly approaching the
Carolinas from the west Tue. Secondary low pressure development
is then forecast along the Eastern Seaboard Tue night into Wed
with this second low pushing off to the north and east of the
area by Wed evening. Though there still remains some differences
in timing and locations of these lows next week, ensemble and
global guidance is in enough consensus to put likely PoP`s
across the area Tue afternoon into Tue night with Chc PoP`s
across the area on Wed as the upper trough moves through with
drier conditions then forecast late next week. Temps remain
about avg across the region next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Fri...VFR currently across the terminals early this
morning. Patchy shallow fog possible through sunrise this
morning, with best chances at OAJ. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with best
chances at OAJ and EWN, which could lead to periods of sub-VFR.
Some stronger storms have the potential to produce damaging
winds, hail and locally heavy rain. Precip will push east of the
terminals by late this evening, with potential for low stratus
advecting in overnight behind the cold front. Right now it looks
like stratus may stay E of the terminals.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast across
the CWA through early next week before the next potential round
of sub VFR conditions around mid week next week with the
approach of a low pressure system.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5
ft. Moderate to breezy SW-W winds 10-20 kt will continue today
with seas 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft across the outer central and
southern waters. A cold front will push into the waters late
afternoon and evening, then offshore tonight. Stronger
northerly surge 20-25 kt expected behind the front tonight with
seas building to 4-7 ft, highest north of Ocracoke. Went ahead
with SCAs for the sounds, coastal waters and Neuse/Bay Rvrs.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
impact the waters this afternoon and evening. Some storms could
be strong to severe with strong winds, hail and frequent
lightning.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Fri... Behind the frontal passage that will have
occured overnight on Fri, blustery N`rly winds will remain
across our waters Sat morning with ongoing SCA`s in place across
much of our waters as 15-20 kt N`rly winds with gusts up to
25-30 kts possible while seas across our coastal waters remain
around 4-7 ft. Winds and seas quickly ease late Sat morning and
evening as frontal boundary pulls further away and is replaced
by high pressure ridging as winds ease down to 5-10 kts by Sat
evening and seas along our coastal waters fall to 2-4 ft.
Lighter winds at 5-15 kts and 2-4 ft seas then persist through
Monday before winds begin increasing on Tue to 15-20 kts out
ahead of an approaching low. Seas also build on Tue in response
to the stronger winds as well.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF