625
FXUS62 KMHX 090700
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area on Friday, followed by high
pressure over the weekend. Another front will come through
around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Upper level trough over the Great Lakes begins
to pivot to the south and east while a jet streak begins to
expand over the Mid-Atlantic and sfc low develops increasing
lift today. At the mid levels a fairly potent mid level
shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-
Atlantic this afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening
low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE`wards into the
Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and
a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain this
evening.

MCS continues to push eastward into western SC and the NC
Piedmont early this morning. Latest guidance shows it reaching
our western counties around 6-8am and pushing across the
forecast area through the morning, then likely offshore by
noon. There is some uncertainty about the strength of the storms
as they move into the region, with diurnal minimum of
instability, however there may be enough upper level support for
a few strong to marginally severe storms bringing gusty winds,
hail and frequent lightning. Trends show the line weakening a
bit over the last few hours, with storm reports and obs showing
wind gusts 30-40 mph.

There is potential for convective redevelopment later this
afternoon and evening, with another threat for svr wx. Out
ahead of the trough and approaching cold front the environment
across ENC appears rather supportive for severe weather. Model
soundings and latest CAMs suggest ample MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg)
as well as ample DCAPE (700-900 J/kg) and inverted V soundings
across the region. In addition to this, deep layer wind shear of
25-35 kt, slightly stronger forcing, and mid level lapse rates
closer to 6.5- 7.0 C/km all suggest we will have another threat
for strong to severe thunderstorms, bringing a threat for
damaging wind gusts and hail. ENC remains in a slight risk for
severe weather. On the flip side of that, some of the CAMs show
very little shower/tstm activity this afternoon and evening,
with this mornings MCS lowering the severe threat, as ENC gets
robbed of more robust dynamics and moisture. So another
challenging and low confidence convective forecast today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thu...Weak low pressure will strengthen near the
VA/NC border overnight as associated cold front begins to push
into eastern NC. Low end svr threat will continue into the
evening hours, likely diminishing with loss of diurnal heating.
Any lingering convection will push off the coast by late this
evening. Some guidance shows potential for patchy fog development
inland overnight, but at this time think light WSW winds will
limit development.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As 315 AM Wed...ENC then dries out over the weekend as high
pressure ridge builds in from the west and remains over the area
into early next week. Next potential round of unsettled weather
begins to approach the area around midweek next week.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally
pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspreads the Mid-Atlantic
on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level
shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. At the surface, low
pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE`wards while
its associated cold front finally tracks across the region
slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure then
develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks
along or near the coast. Once again kept thunder in the grids
for Fri as HREF and NBM probs continue to highlight the
potential for about 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to remain over the
area. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at
widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week
general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before
gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes as upper
level ridging begins to overspread the Southeast. Dry frontal
passage currently forecast Sun evening into Mon before surface
ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west on Mon. Temps do
cool over the weekend closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 250 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF
period, though there will be a few opportunities for sub-VFR.
The first will be this morning towards sunrise, when another MCS
currently moving through the NC Piedmont, which could impact the
terminals between 10-15z. Strong winds and hail will be
possible, though svr threat may remain limited due to relative
minimum in instability. Scattered convective redevelopment will
be possible this afternoon and evening which could lead to
brief periods of sub-VFR. Patchy fog will be possible inland
overnight into early Friday morning, though light winds may
limit potential.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Higher potential for widespread sub-VFR
conditions on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and
more widespread shower activity is forecast. As we get into the
weekend and into early next week VFR conditions are then
forecast for the rest of the period as high pressure ridging
gradually builds in from the west.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 250 AM Thu...Latest obs show S-SW winds 10-15 kt with
gusts to 20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. Pressure and thermal gradients
will strengthen through the day, with SW winds increasing to
15-25 kt. SCAs continue for the coastal waters and the Pamlico
Sound, with 15-25 kt winds developing by late morning and
peaking late this afternoon and evening. Seas will grad build,
peaking at 4-7 ft. Gradient will slowly relax late tonight and
early Fri morning with seas slowly subsiding. Area of showers
and tstms may impact the waters towards daybreak this morning,
with potential redevelopment this afternoon and evening. Some
storms may be strong to severe with strong winds and hail.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Still expecting a cold front passage Fri
morning with shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of the
front Thurs afternoon and evening. Additional shower and
thunderstorm activity possible once again on Fri across all
waters as the front pushes offshore and a weak wave of low
pressure develops along the front. Locally enhanced winds and
seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our
waters. Drier weather then expected this weekend and into early
next week.

Otherwise we start the period out under SCA conditions from
Oregon Inlet south and across the Pamlico Sound as SW`rly winds
out ahead of the cold front quickly increase after daybreak on
Thursday to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts.
Elsewhere across the northern waters and sounds as well as the
inland rivers, slightly lighter winds will persist closer to
15-20 kts with a few gusts up around 25 kts, though will have
to monitor trends in case inclusion of SCA`s becomes necessary
especially along the N`rn coastal waters and Neuse river. As the
front nears and eventually pushes offshore Fri morning SW`rly
winds then decrease down to 10-15 kts, thus ending SCA`s across
all waters. Behind the front winds gradually turn to a W and
then NW direction at 10-15 kts. By Sat light and variable winds
are forecast as high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the
west with W`rly flow at 10-15 kts returning Sun into early next
week. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters to start the period
quickly increase on Thurs to 5-8 ft. Seas then lower just as
quickly on Fri morning back down to 3-5 ft and then to 2-4 ft by
Fri evening remaining at these heights into early next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Friday for AMZ150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...CQD/RCF
MARINE...CQD/RCF