Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270550
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
150 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide offshore tonight ahead of the
approaching cold front. Another coastal low will impact the
area late Wednesday into Friday. High pressure then builds in
from the south over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...High pressure is shifting offshore,
with KHSE showing sfc pressure slowly decreasing since 10PM. Low
pressure offshore also is shifting eastward. With the stagnant
pattern finally leaving the region, the persistent low level
cloud cover along and east of hwy 17 will start receding to the
north and east through daybreak today. Moist onshore flow may
lead to patchy fog development. Patchy dense fog will be
possible, with highest probabilities near the Albemarle Sound.
Clouds and onshore flow should keep temps warmer than last few
nights, with lows in the 40s. Low pressure to our west lifts
into the Great Lakes/southern Ontario and attendant cold front
pushes towards the Appalachians.

With the low offshore beginning to retreat, expect gradual
improvement for coastal impacts though could see overwash
through the next two high tides. Coastal Flooding/Overwash
concerns still ongoing along the Outer Banks, see section below
for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Sfc low pressure will develop over SC/GA along
the initial boundary Wed, strengthening on the main cold front
as it pushes towards eastern NC Wed night. Increasing moisture
and forcing, with shower chances grad increasing from west to
east though the day, best chances in the afternoon and evening.
Iso tstms possible, though instability looks limited. Despite
the cloud cover, should be several degrees warmer Wed with ESE
flow. Highs climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s for the Outer
Banks and 60s to low 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tue...Coastal low is forecast to bring inclement
weather Wednesday evening into Thursday with much quieter
weather forecast over the weekend. Next potential front begins
to near ENC by early next week.

Wed night through Fri... Upper level trough in the Plains will
continue to push E`wards into Thu becoming negatively tilted as
it approaches the Eastern Seaboard. A second and stronger mid
level shortwave will deepen as it approaches the area Wed night
into Thursday as it rounds the base of this trough and this will
be the main weather feature in the period. Do expect upper
level ridging to slowly nudge its way into the Carolinas on
Friday allowing quieter weather to return once again.

At the surface, a slow moving cold front will stall across the
Eastern Seaboard Wed afternoon while a low pressure system
develops along the stalling boundary in the Gulf of Mexico. This
low begins to track NE`wards along the SC/NC coast late Wed
night quickly deepening before exiting off to the north and east
Thu night with high pressure ridging building in from the south
on Fri. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with
general placement and track of this low with GFS/EURO
deterministic and ensemble guidance suggesting a track either
directly along or just offshore the coast. As this low tracks
NE`wards PWAT`s will surge across the area bringing ample
moisture. Still not expecting much in the way of instability
across ENC given the expected track which would place the area
in the cool sector of the storm but cannot completely dismiss a
rumble of thunder or two primarily along the SW`rn zones Wed
evening so kept some mention of thunder in the forecast. The
bigger concern for Wed night and Thurs will be the chance for
heavy rain as ample moisture will combine with strong lift to
promote a heavy rain and a flash flooding threat. EURO/GFS
guidance suggests the potential for 2-4 inches of rainfall
across ENC, with NBM/LREF probs placing a 50-70% chance of
seeing 2+ inches of rainfall across the region between Wed night
and Thu. Given this and the upward trend in QPF guidance, did
increase rainfall totals once again tonight and expect
widespread 1-3 inches with localized amounts in excess of 4
inches possible. WPC has also placed the area in a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall for this timeframe further hinting at
the possibility for some localized flash flooding across ENC Wed
night into Thurs. Will note there is some uncertainty with the
exact placement of the heaviest QPF so amounts and placement of
the heaviest amounts will likely change over the next few days.
Finally as the low passes off to the north and east Thu night
winds will begin to increase from W to E with widespread 30-40
mph NW`ry winds forecast Thu night. A few gusts near 45-50 mph
will be possible as well mainly along the OBX.

Winds begin to ease and skies clear on Fri as the low pulls away
and high pressure builds in from the south. Temps will be in
the mid to upper 60s inland and the upper 50s to low 60s along
the OBX Wed before cooling off Thu and Fri as cloud cover and
rain limit temps to the low to mid 60s inland and upper 50s
along the OBX.

This weekend into early next week...Dry weather returns for
the weekend as high pressure builds in from the south. Weak
shortwaves traversing some upper level zonal flow may provide
enough lift to bring partly to mo cloudy skies this weekend
though temps will warm each day getting into the mid to upper
70s inland by Sun. Next potential front then nears the area by
early next week bringing a threat for at least widespread cloud
cover and maybe some additional shower activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 145 AM Wednesday...IFR conditions currently for inland
terminals, deteriorating to LIFR along the beaches due to the
persistent stratus deck plaguing the region. As the high over us
shifts eastward, the cloud deck will start retreating to the
north and east, with conditions improving to MVFR/VFR by
daybreak for TAF terminals, but still solidly IFR for NE
portions of the CWA. Late morning into the afternoon will bring
generally VFR conditions outside of NOBX, until moisture ahead
of the approaching cold front brings ceilings down again as we
get into Wednesday evening. Widespread MVFR conditions in the
evening will transition to IFR/LIFR with periods of heavy rain
ahead of the cold front. PGV and ISO will see periods of heavy
rain as we approach the end of the TAF period (between 3-6Z),
with EWN And OAJ to follow suite just beyond the TAF period.

Moist onshore flow may lead to patchy to areas of fog through
daybreak today, highest chances nern zones.


LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...No significant changes in the forecast as it
is looking increasingly likely that ENC sees a period of sub-VFR
ceilings and vis especially Wed night into Thu as a potent
coastal low impacts the area and brings widespread heavy rain,
low ceilings and periods of reduced visibility to the area.
Conditions will then quickly improve from W-E Thu afternoon and
evening as this low departs off to the north and east with VFR
conditions likely returning to all terminals by late Thu night.
However, gusty NW`rly winds will be found behind this departing
low with widespread gusts in excess of 25 kts possible Thu night
into Fri morning before winds finally ease. Quiet weather then
forecast from Fri afternoon on as ridging builds in from the
south promoting fair weather.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tue...N/NE winds 5-15 kt across the waters this
afternoon, with seas 4-8 ft south of Ocracoke and 8-15 ft/14-15
sec north. Stubborn offshore low pressure will finally begin to
push ESE tonight and into Wed, with seas slowly subsiding. NE-E
winds 5-15 kt tonight becoming E-SE Wed. Seas will subside to
less than 10 ft by early Wed morning and 4-8 ft Wed afternoon.
SCAs continue for the coastal waters. Patchy dense fog will be
possible across the northern waters and sounds overnight into
early Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 4 AM Tue...A cold front approaches the waters Thu, with a
coastal low lifting across the area. Winds will gradually turn
to a SE`rly direction at 10-15 kts from the Pamlico Sound and
central waters south with 5-10 kt E-NE`rly winds found across
our waters to the north of this. As the coastal low lifts across
the region and pushes off to the north and east Thu afternoon,
winds will shift to the N-NW behind the departing low and
rapidly increase behind the low to 20-30 kts with gale force
gusts possible, especially along the larger sounds and coastal
waters. Have issued Gale Watches. This low will also bring
widespread heavy rain and some isolated thunderstorms as well
Wed evening and through Thu. Winds do finally begin to ease on
Fri afternoon down to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts
at times and then lower even further Sat to 10-15 kts as high
pressure ridge builds in from the south.

Widespread 5-8 ft seas to start the period will gradually lower
with the potential for seas to fall closer to 4-5 ft along our
coastal waters Wed night into Thurs morning as light winds
persist. However, this is short lived as seas quickly build back
up closer to 5-8 ft Thu afternoon and 7-10 ft Thu night as
strong winds bring increased wave action. Elevated seas then
persist through Friday before seas fall below SCA levels on Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Tue...Reports of moderate to locally significant
ocean overwash reported throughout Hatteras Island and northern
Ocracoke Island with this mornings high tide. Coastal Flood
Advisories continue through Wed morning high tide for overwash.
NC 12 remains closed per NCDOT on the northern end of Ocracoke
Island due to ocean overwash and dangerous driving conditions.
Hatteras to Ocracoke ferry service remains suspended until
further notice.

High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to
large, breaking waves and wave runup. Advisories will run
through Wednesday morning high tide as persistent northerly
fetch funnels large long-period swell 14-15 sec along the
beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 7-11 feet, higher
north of Hatteras 10-15 ft.

We have yet another threat for some minor coastal flooding and
strong winds Thursday night into Friday morning as a coastal
low impacts the region. Main threat areas look to be soundside
between Ocracoke and soundside beaches south of Oregon Inlet.
Will continue to fine tune details of this potential threat in
the coming days and will issue additional coastal flood
products if needed.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ150.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon
     for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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