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000
FXUS62 KMHX 200633
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
233 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks south across the region and stalls just
offshore on Saturday. An area of low pressure will lift NE along
the front Sunday bringing rain across the region. High pressure
briefly builds into the area Tuesday followed by a cold front with
limited moisture pushing across the area Wednesday. High pressure
builds back into the area for the latter half of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Low stratus is over much of the area, and
fog has started building in for southern portions of the CWA.
Will keep an eye on observations, but given current trends, a
SPS for patchy dense fog is likely as we approach sunrise.
A small cluster of thunderstorms is just west of Fayetteville,
but are expected to weaken as they approach Duplin and Lenoir
Counties. While a few rumbles of thunder is possible, it will
largely become showers with light to moderate rainfall. NAM3km
is the outlier, showing thunderstorms advancing as far east as
hwy 17 before falling apart. Given the propensity for the NAM3km
to overdo convection, decided to exclude that outcome from this
forecast, but the progression of these storms will be closely
monitored over the next hour. Outside of MLCAPE > 500 J/KG,
thunderstorm parameters are not supportive of sustained
thunderstorm organization.

More mild temperatures are likely tonight as the frontal
boundary continues to lift northward, with lows in the low 60s
inland and mid 50s across NOBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...No major changes with this update. As
of 330 PM Fri... SW`rly flow will continue to persist across the
region Sat morning before the next cold front sweeps southwards
across ENC Sat afternoon shifting the winds behind this front
to a NE`rly direction. Any leftover shower activity from the
previous evenings activity will be quickly pushing out to sea
Sat morning with perhaps the biggest change to the forecast for
Sat being a reduction in PoP`s Sat afternoon. Latest thinking is
that there will no longer be much forcing with the incoming
front which should keep the Coastal Plain dry while maybe a few
showers develop along the OBX and Crystal Coast Sat afternoon as
the front makes its way through. Though capped PoP`s at SChc
along the coast and OBX given the downward trend in precip
potential. Otherwise temps get into the low to mid 70s inland
and into the mid 60s to near 70 along the OBX on Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS through the long term bring a progressive pattern
with several frontal passages and an area of low pressure
lifting off the coast early next week.

Sunday through Monday...Shortwave energy moving through the
flow aloft will bring better forcing across the area Sunday
and Sunday night with favorable jet dynamics over the area.
Sfc low pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass
off the OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther
offshore on Monday. There remains some timing differences with
the low but expect widespread rain to develop across the area
Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts expected
around a half to one inch with highest amounts occuring along
the coast. NE winds, clouds and rain will keep cooler temps
across the area with highs expected in the low to mid 60s.

Most of the rain will push offshore Sunday night but an upper
trough will push across the Southeast which may trigger
additional showers across the area on Monday, however guidance
has been trending farther south and weaker with the trough which
may keep us on the drier side. Below normal temps continue on
Monday with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Tuesday through Thursday...High pressure builds into the area
Tuesday but will quickly move offshore by Wednesday with
additional shortwave energy and sfc cold front sliding across
the area bringing the chance for a few showers, though moisture
appears to be limited with this system. High pressure builds
back into the area on Thursday with dry conditions prevailing.
A warming trend will develop Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in
the low to mid 70s, and a few upper 70s possible Wednesday.
Temps cool back to the low to mid 70s Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sat/...
As of 230 PM Saturday...LIFR ceilings dominate, and LIFR fog
has started building in for southern terminals, slowly expanding
northward. Ceilings then begin to improve to MVFR late Sat
morning as the area becomes wedged between the front that moves
through tonight and a second front coming in from the north late
Sat. Fog lifts shortly after 12Z, but ceilings don`t become
firmly VFR until we get into the evening/night hours Saturday.
Light winds persist across the region through the period.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along
hwy 17 and the Crystal Coast in the afternoon Saturday along a
sea breeze.



LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 530 AM Friday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers as mid level shortwaves and attendant
cold front moves into the area. Low pressure passes along the
offshore front Sunday through Sunday night bringing the best
chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR conditions across rtes.
Improving conditions are expected on Monday with pred VFR
expected Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Fri... Weak warm front will lift N`wards across
our waters this evening allowing E`rly winds to veer to a SE and
eventually a SW`rly direction tonight while winds remain around
5-15 kts. A cold front then sweeps S`wards across the area Sat
afternoon once again shifting winds behind the front to a N`rly
direction at 10-20 kts with only a few gusts mainly along the
Gulf Stream waters to about 25 kts Sat afternoon. Seas generally
remain around 3-5 ft through the period precluding any issuance
of SCA`s across our waters through the period

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 PM Friday...The front will stall off the coast
Saturday night with winds diminishing to around 15 kt or less
but low pressure will develop along the front Sunday and pass
off the OBX Sunday night into Monday bringing a period NE winds
around 15-25 kt, strongest Sunday night into Monday morning.
High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic on Tuesday with NE
winds around 10-20 kt continuing across the waters. Seas
expected to be around 3-5 ft Saturday into Sunday morning, then
will build to 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters and
6-9 ft across the central waters Sunday night and Monday. Seas
will gradually subside Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...RCF/RJ
LONG TERM...RM/SK
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RCF