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FXUS62 KMHX 291724
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
124 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front will impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1015 AM Monday...Quiet weather pattern persists across the
Carolinas this morning as upper level ridge axis remains
centered overhead and Atlantic high pressure extends inland from
the Atlantic. Less moisture to work with today than yesterday
and expecting little appreciable cloud cover, which in turn will
allow for full insolation. Current temperature trends look good,
but did adjust temps a bit over the Outer Banks where
temperatures are already running a bit above guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Mid/upper level ridging remains overhead tonight, with a
continued southwesterly flow helping support mild, above normal,
overnight temperatures. One potential fly in the ointment for
tonight is the potential development of fog/stratus. The
orientation of the high offshore will support a moistening
southwesterly flow, with dewpoints forecast to rise into the low
60s through the night. Forecast soundings suggest the depth of
low-level moistening may be sufficiently deep to support some
low stratus, or fog, development. At minimum, it could be a
scenario where at least patchy fog is able to develop that has
more depth to it than the patchy ground fog of late.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Above normal temperatures persist on Tuesday with highs in the
low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the coast. A
mid-level trough will amplify as it moves east across the
SECONUS. Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not
making its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance
expected to pass during Wednesday`s peak heating, showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less
likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with
PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with
upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing
chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday
afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into
the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/...
As of 125 PM Monday...The probability of sub-VFR flight
conditions is under 10%.

VFR conditions persist across all of eastern NC under warm
southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of high pressure
centered off the southeastern coast. Not nearly as much moisture
to work with today compared to yesterday and expect little if
any cloud cover through Tues morning, apart from some spotty cu
mainly south of EWN. Focus for tonight is nocturnal stratus as
low levels continue to gradually moisten. If any develops, most
favored sites would be EWN and OAJ. Even here, the reliable LAMP
guidance doesn`t show any chance of sub-VFR flight conditions
higher than 5%. The only deterministic members to show
restrictions are the ARW and NAM, which historically are too
aggressive with showing stratus/low fog particularly in
southwesterly flow regimes. Opted to keep a VFR forecast, but
trends will continue to be monitored.

Breezy southwesterly winds continue tomorrow with building cirri
as next mid-level wave gradually approaches the region.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An
approaching disturbance will bring some chances for
precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Relatively good boating conditions are expected through
tonight. However, there are a couple of caveats worth
mentioning. The diurnal increase in southwesterly winds
associated with the developing thermal gradient may support a
few gusts to 25kt for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound.
The duration and magnitude forecast appears too marginal for any
marine headlines, and I`ll continue to hold off on this for
now. For the coastal waters, seas are forecast to hold in the
2-4 ft range through this evening. By tonight, long period swell
arriving from the Northern Atlantic may lead to seas building
to 3-5 ft, especially north of Cape Hatteras.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/MS
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...MS/OJC
MARINE...RM/OJC