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192
FXUS62 KMHX 152133
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
433 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control until the next dry, Arctic
front moves through Thursday night. High pressure will then briefly
build in on Friday, followed by additional cold front passages
over the weekend. A coastal low, or two, will be possible during
this time as well.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 4 PM Wednesday...High pressure ridging will secure mostly
clear skies through tonight. A lack of cloud cover and calm
winds will produce a great radiational cooling setup, which will
send temps crashing after sunset. Confidence in temps following
closer to the coldest guidance was increased given single digit
overnight dewpoints for many locations across the coastal plain.
With all of that said, lows are expected to reach the low- to
mid-teens across the coastal plain and mid- to upper-20s along
the OBX. With a lack of wind, confidence was not high enough in
widespread apparent temps less than 15, so a Cold Weather
Advisory was not issued. However, some sheltered spots may
briefly reach apparent temps of 15 or less.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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As of 4 PM Wednesday...A mid-level shortwave trough will start
Thursday across the southern Great Lakes and end up over the
Carolinas by the afternoon. At the surface, a low will form and
drag a dry cold front across the area Thursday night. SWerly
flow ahead of the front will help temps warm to highs nearly 10
degrees warmer than today (mid-40s to low-50s). Lows won`t be
nearly as cold as tonight, but still quite chilly in the
upper-20s across the coastal plain and mid-30s along the OBX.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Another round of well below normal temperatures expected next
   week. Wintry precipitation potential less certain

Friday-Sunday: Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface
will briefly dominate the weather across the region on Friday.
This will keep the weather cool and dry during the day.

By Friday night, high pressure will shift offshore, setting up
a moistening return flow. Southwesterly moisture advection will
ramp up in earnest late Friday night into Saturday as a
dampening shortwave approaches from the west. This wave, while
forecast to weaken, will glance the coastal Carolinas Saturday
into Saturday night. Despite the weakening wave, guidance
continues to show a period of strong WAA and increased large-
scale forcing for ascent overlapping with a notable plume of
moisture off the Gulf of Mexico. In light of this, deterministic
and ensemble guidance continue to paint a fairly solid signal
for widespread rain showers on Saturday, and the forecast will
reflect this expectation. One caveat worth pointing out is that
a weak coastal low may develop near, or just offshore of the
Carolinas. Should this occur, showers may tend to be focused
closer to the coast, and recent guidance has trended a bit drier
further inland. We`ll continue to monitor trends as the current
forecast may be overdone on the rain risk inland. Because of
the strong WAA, Saturday and Saturday night`s precipitation
should be all rain.

Attention then turns to Sunday and Sunday night. Saturday
night`s cold front is now forecast to get hung up just
offshore, setting up a favorable baroclinic zone for the
potential development of another coastal low as yet another
shortwave approaches from the west. In light of this, recent
guidance has trended towards a modestly deeper SFC low. Where
guidance differ is with the track, and speed, of the low. This
is important because colder air is forecast to begin filtering
into the area, especially by Sunday night. At this point, the
most likely scenario appears to be a second round of rain Sunday
into Sunday night. However, the guidance showing a slower SFC
low track could introduce a rain ending as a brief period of
snow as the colder air filters in.

Monday-Tuesday: By far, the main message during this timeframe
will be the cold. Deterministic and ensemble guidance and other
forecast aids continue to show a strong signal for well below
normal temperatures next week as an Arctic airmass spills south
and east out of Canada and into the central/eastern U.S. During
this time, some forecast aids suggest the potential for record
low temperatures. There is the potential for some areas to see
24+ consecutive hours below freezing which is notable for this
area.

What continues to be a point of disagreement in the guidance is
whether or not moisture will overlap with the cold airmass.
There continues to be a signal for some wintry precipitation
next week across parts of the Southeast U.S., but ensemble
probabilities continue to remain low. This just means there is
a lot of model spread, so stay tuned.
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&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday afternoon/...
As of 12:20 PM Wednesday...High confidence in VFR flight cats
through the period continues. Today, 10-15 kt NWerly winds will
gradually back to the SW and become light to calm overnight
across the coastal plain. Winds across the OBX will stay more
Werly overnight around 5-10 kt. Tomorrow, winds will be SWerly
around 10-15 kt. Mostly clear skies will persist through the
period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Increased risk of sub VFR conditions Saturday and Sunday

A cold front will move through ENC Thursday night, and may be
accompanied by a modest bump up in northwesterly winds. High
pressure then builds in with dry conditions and lighter winds
Friday. Southerly winds are forecast to increase Friday night
into Saturday, especially closer to the coast. Inland airports
may hold onto a northerly wind depending on the track of a weak
surface low that is forecast to move through the area. This low
will bring an increased risk of SHRA and sub VFR conditions. The
TSRA looks low for Saturday. An additional round of RA is
possible on Sunday, along with a continued risk of sub VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Marine conditions briefly improve tonight and tomorrow before
   deteriorating again tomorrow night

As of 4:10 PM Wednesday...SCA conditions continue for the
coastal waters north of Ocracoke Inlet, but winds and seas are
retreating. Sub-SCA conditions will briefly return early
Thursday morning before another cold front brings the next round
of increasing winds and seas.

10-15 kt NWerly winds overnight will become SWerly tomorrow
afternoon ahead of a cold front. By sunset, winds south of
Oregon Inlet will be 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will
continue to increase overnight and become Werly before peaking
at 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. For the waters north of Oregon
Inlet, winds will peak Thursday night when they are Werly at
20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.

Seas will drop to 3-4 ft by early tomorrow afternoon but quickly
build back Thursday night and peak at 5-8 ft south of Cape
Hatteras and 5-7 ft north of Cape Hatteras.

Remaining SCAs will drop off overnight tonight. A Gale Watch
has been issued for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and
a SCA has been issued for the Pamlico Sound, both of which
start 00Z Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

 - Multiple opportunities for elevated winds and seas through
   the weekend

An active weather pattern will continue to support multiple
opportunities for elevated winds and seas through this weekend.
The periods that stand out the most are Thursday, and again
Saturday and Sunday. Those days all carry a high chance of 25kt
winds, with some waters potentially reaching gale-force winds.
Stay tuned for updates on possible marine hazards through the
next several days.
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&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 9 AM EST Friday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...OJC/RM
MARINE...OJC/RM