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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
715
FXUS62 KMHX 171111
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
711 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore
through the weekend with a weak trough over the central part of
the state. A weak cold front will drop into the northern
forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back to the
north Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 710 AM Friday...A few showers continue off the central
Outer Banks, otherwise a dry morning upcoming. Expect a moist
and unstable airmass to remain in place over eastern North
Carolina today as a SW flow continues around high pressure
offshore and a deepening mid-level trough to approach from the
west over the next day or so. Think the best chance of
convection will occur along the sea breeze in the central
portions of the CWA and will forecast 30-40 percent PoPs in this
area with only a slight chance deep inland and along the
immediate coast. Expect storms to remain below severe limits,
but with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches, heavy
downpours will be possible. High temperatures will range from
the upper 80s coast to lower 90s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM Friday...Most of the high-resolution models such as
the HRRR and NSSL WRF show that convection should wane with loss
of heating this evening and PoPs should be minimal overnight.
There only exception is a few stray showers may impact the
coastal sections toward Saturday morning and will continue a
slight chance PoP near the coast late tonight as precipitable
water near the coast surges to over 2 inches. Low temperatures
will again be very muggy, ranging from 75 to 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 3 AM Fri...A mean upper trough is forecast over the
Eastern US through the period while low level southerly flow
continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region
with PW values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing
aloft and moisture/instability in the low levels will result in
unsettled conditions this weekend through next week with
precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or
slightly below normal.

A weak front is forecast to drop southward into the northern
forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back north
Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late next
week. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase above climatological
norms through most of the period as conditions become favorable
for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will
continue chance to likely pops. Temps are expected to be near
normal with highs inland around 90 Sat, then cooling slightly to
the mid to upper 80s Sunday through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 06Z Saturday/...
As of 710 AM Friday...VFR conditions should prevail for this TAF
cycle. Scattered thunderstorms will form on the sea breeze and
could briefly drop ceilings and/or vsbys, but will be short-
lived. After storms dissipate, expect mostly leftover mid/high
debris clouds tonight. Coupled with a light southwest breeze,
this should preclude much in the way of fog formation and keep
conditions mostly VFR overnight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will produce sub VFR conditions at times through the period. In
addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds
and fog early each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 710 AM Friday...No major changes to the marine forecast on
this update. Latest high-resolution guidance shows SW winds of
15-20 knots will be the rule for most of the today into tonight.
A few gusts around 25 knots may be possible later this evening
into tonight, but the gusts will not be consistent enough to
warrant a Small Craft Advisory through the short term period.
Seas of 2-4 feet today, will build to 3-5 feet south of Oregon
Inlet tonight.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 3 AM Fri...SCA conditions likely to develop Saturday
afternoon and continue into Saturday night and early Sunday.
Little change to the surface pattern of a trough of low pressure
inland and high pressure offshore into early next. The gradient
tightens Saturday, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt, strongest
south of Oregon Inlet with seas 3-5 ft building to 4-6 ft late
Sat afternoon and evening. Will hold off on headlines now, but
good chance of seeing SCA conditions south of Oregon Inlet and
the Pamlico Sound early in the period. SW winds 10-20 kt
continue Sunday with seas 3-5 ft. A weak front is forecast to
drop into the northern waters Monday and Monday night before
lifting back to the north Tuesday. W/SW winds 5-15 kt early
Monday with seas 2-4 ft, becoming E/SE across the northern
waters and remaining SW south of Hatteras. S/SW winds return for
all waters Tuesday 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early building to 3-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD