Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KMHX 290021 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 821 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure inland will gradually weaken tonight and Monday. Upper level low pressure and troughing along the coast will keep unsettled weather in place through the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 8 PM Sunday...Surface low pressure has moved further inland and is currently sitting just one county west of our southern counties. Rain bands continue to crawl across the area with the heaviest showers over the offshore waters and near/north of Cape Hatteras. PoPs will continue to diminish over the next few hours as drier air continues to entrain the currently moist column. Patchy fog/low stratus is possible mostly west of US Hwy 17 starting around 10 PM and continuing through the morning. Lows remain unchanged from previous update (low-60s).
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Sun...Surface low dissipates into troughing inland Monday, with persistent, weak WAA. Cloudy conditions in the morning should scatter through the morning. Modest instability should develop by the afternoon, which could be enough to tip the scales between the dynamic influence of the upper low over the SE and persistent dry mid level advection, and a few showers and thunderstorms could development through the afternoon, especially if a sea breeze is able to develop. Cool upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft mean that any updrafts that are able to survive the mid-level dry air could produce some small hail/graupel and gusty winds, but the overall severe threat is very low. Otherwise, the forecast for Memorial Day is trending more pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Sun...A mid level rex block continues over the US through early week, as upper low lingers over the Carolinas. A return to more typical summer weather occurs mid to late week. Monday night through Wednesday...With mid level blocking, upper troughing looks to persist into the early part of this week, resulting in unsettled weather continuing into Wednesday as upper low and weakening sfc low linger over the area. Most convection will likely be diurnally driven, with best chances Tue with upper low overhead. Overall svr risk the next few days looks low, with meager instability and shear. However, given the cold temps aloft and steeper lapse rates can`t rule out an isolated strong/svr tstm threat. Temps likely to remain a few deg below normal through mid week. Thursday through Sunday...Upper low will continue to lift northward off the Mid-Atlantic and NE US coast Thu as high pressure builds into the Carolinas. Weak cold front may move through the area next weekend, with potential for weak low pressure development off the SE coast. More typical widely scattered diurnal convective pattern expected mid to late week with temps returning to near normal values. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/... As of 8 PM Sunday...Current conditions at TAF sites range from VFR to IFR and continue to flip flop as weak rainbands move across the area yet drier air begins to entrain as the surface low weakens. Guidance was in good agreement of at least MVFR CIGs through most of the period for all TAF sites. As lower stratus clouds build down closer to the surface, IFR CIGs are possible starting this evening around 02Z. At the furthest inland terminals (PGV, ISO, and OAJ), low stratus/patchy fog seems more likely with VIS possibly getting down to at least 5SM. Have not included reduced VIS for EWN. VIS should improve to VFR by mid-morning, but CIGs could still be MVFR for a few hours. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by mid-afternoon. LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/... As of 245 AM Sun...Sub- VFR cigs potentially return Monday night into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and tstms Monday through Wed, with best chances in the afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Monday/... As of 350 PM Monday...Low pressure will dissipate inland tonight and Monday, with light to moderate winds prevailing. Seas drop below 6 ft overnight, with relatively favorable boating conditions for Memorial Day. LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/... As of 245 AM Sun...Despite the weak low lingering near/over the waters into Wed, conditions across the waters will be significantly better than the weekend. Light to moderate winds through mid week, becoming more NE-E Tue and Wed with seas generally 2-4 ft. There is potential for slightly stronger winds and 5 ft seas, north of Ocracoke, Tue night into Wed with weak sfc low development. High pressure will build over the waters Thu and Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB/OJC SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CQD/OJC MARINE...CQD/CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.