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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 170226
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1026 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through tonight with some scattered showers
and storms ahead of it. High pressure returns for mid to late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1025 PM Mon...Severe threat has greatly diminished with
convective activity along the coast being this event`s last
gasp. Drier conditions expected to prevail after midnight and
continue through tomorrow.

Prev disc...Line of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal
trough continues to push across the northern half of the FA
along and north of the Pamlico River. A few additional rounds of
showers and storms remain possible across the northern half
through the aftn ahead of the main cold front that is expected
to push through this evening. The initial line of storms likely
used up much of the sfc based instability, though some elevated
instability may remain across the region. With little shear
around, severe risk with these storms remain primarily
associated with gusty downbursts. Across the southern half of
the FA, sea breeze managed to fire off a few iso showers and
storms, but no severe reports. Advancing cold front will begin
to merge with the prefrontal trough this evening, providing a
broad line of showers and tstorms across the FA, moving eastward
and offshore by around midnight. Main svr risk with these
storms remain gusty downbursts, but will wane with loss of
daytime heating. Behind the front, clearing skies with dewpoints
dropping to the mid 50s and low temps in the upper 50s to low
60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Mon...High pressure over the TN River Valley
builds in behind the aforementioned frontal passage. Clear skies
prevail with NW winds in the morning becoming more Wrly by the
aftn. Despite a drop in low level thicknesses values, Wrly flow
will likely provide weak downslope flow across the Piedmont
region, resulting in compressional heating and aftn temps
reaching the mid 80s inland and mid 70s across the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 AM Mon... Weak ridging builds in across the Eastern
Seaboard Wed before departing off to the east. Warm front lifts
N`wards across the fcst area Wed night into Thu bringing our
next chance for shower and tstm activity to ENC. Ridging returns
on Friday and Saturday with the hottest temperatures of the
year forecast before a cold front approaches from the west to
round out the weekend.

Tue night and Wed...Westerly flow aloft brings in some drier
air to the region. At the surface, ridging builds in across the
Eastern Seaboard into Wed. Hi temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s
with Lows in the 60s to upper 50s.

Wed night into Thu... Upper level shortwave tracks E`wards across
the Mid-Atlantic on Thu while at the surface a warm front lifts
N`wards across the Carolinas Wed night reaching the NC/VA border by
Thu morning and lifting well north of the area by late Thu night.
Southerly flow at the surface will once again bring moisture N`wards
across the CWA and with the frontal boundary providing modest lift
across the region as it tracks N, scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will be possible Wed night into Thu. Latest forecast
guidance suggests best chances to see rain and thunderstorm activity
Wed night and Thu would be across our northern areas, though cannot
rule out a shower or storm Thu afternoon across the entire CWA. For
now kept SChc to Chc PoPs across the CWA Wed night and Thu and will
fine tune chances as we get closer to Thu. Hi`s Wed and Thu
reach the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the CWA with Low`s
in the mid to upper 60s each night.

Fri through the weekend... Ridging builds back into the Eastern
Seaboard by Friday as the previously mentioned warm front exits the
Mid-Atlantic Thu night. Onshore flow will return to the area once
again with fair wx and mostly sunny skies forecast across ENC. These
benign conditions will also be accompanied by a warming trend
late this week into this weekend resulting in the hottest
temperatures of the year. Guidance currently suggests Hi`s in
the mid to upper 90`s are not out of the realm of possibility
this weekend especially across the Coastal Plain. By Sun the
next potential frontal boundary begins to approach from the
west.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday tonight/...
As of 800 PM Mon...Periodic showers and thunderstorms, some
strong at times, will be the primary aviation hazard in the near
term for all terminals through 02-04z with the primary hazard
being strong winds of 40+ kt and some potential hail. Storms
will shift south and east as cold front between GSO and RDU
advances eastward, with all convection coming to an end by
04-05z. Outside of this convection, predominantly VFR conditions
are expected with winds staying just elevated enough to preclude
fog development although with clearing skies cannot rule out
some patchy development in well sheltered freshly saturated
locales.

VFR prevails Tuesday with high pressure building into the area.
Northwest winds back westerly in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 1235 PM Mon...Primarily VFR conditions are expected to
prevail through much of this week as guidance is forecasting
little if any precipitation across eastern NC through Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 420 PM Mon...Showers and thunderstorms across the
northern rivers and sounds will continue to push to the coast,
reaching the northern and central waters early evening. Some
gustier winds possible in stronger storms. SCA remains in effect
for the coastal waters and sounds with SW flow ramping up ahead
of the advancing cold front. Expect some more sct showers and
storms as this front pushes over the waters tonight and into
early Tuesday morning. Behind the front, winds turn NWrly and
diminish to 10-15 kts. High pressure then begins to build across
the region with winds becoming more light and variable during
the aftn. Could see a few 6 ft seas across the central waters
overnight, but return to 2-3 ft by Tue aftn.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
As of 415 AM Mon... 10-15 knot N`rly winds Tue morning will
veer to a southerly direction by Tue night as weak high
pressure ridging tracks E`wards along the northern OBX. Winds
return to a N`rly direction Wed morning before onshore flow
finally takes over Wed night as a warm front lifts N`wards.
Onshore winds increase on Thu in the wake of this N`ward lifting
front as the pressure gradient tightens across the region with
seas persisting at about 2-4 ft throughout the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 430 PM Mon...ENC is entering a high astronomical tide
cycle assoc with the full moon this coming Monday. King Tides in
combination with sely trade swells will bring elevated water
levels across coastal areas through Tuesday with water levels up
to 1-2 ft above ground near the water front during times of
high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for coastal
zones from the Northern OBX south to Coastal Onslow County.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-196-
     199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ154-156.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS/ML
SHORT TERM...ML
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...ML/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX