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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 290021
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
821 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure inland will gradually weaken tonight and Monday.
Upper level low pressure and troughing along the coast will
keep unsettled weather in place through the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 8 PM Sunday...Surface low pressure has moved further
inland and is currently sitting just one county west of our
southern counties. Rain bands continue to crawl across the area
with the heaviest showers over the offshore waters and near/north
of Cape Hatteras. PoPs will continue to diminish over the next
few hours as drier air continues to entrain the currently moist
column. Patchy fog/low stratus is possible mostly west of US
Hwy 17 starting around 10 PM and continuing through the morning.
Lows remain unchanged from previous update (low-60s).
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sun...Surface low dissipates into troughing inland
Monday, with persistent, weak WAA. Cloudy conditions in the
morning should scatter through the morning. Modest instability
should develop by the afternoon, which could be enough to tip
the scales between the dynamic influence of the upper low over
the SE and persistent dry mid level advection, and a few showers
and thunderstorms could development through the afternoon,
especially if a sea breeze is able to develop. Cool upper levels
and steep lapse rates aloft mean that any updrafts that are
able to survive the mid-level dry air could produce some small
hail/graupel and gusty winds, but the overall severe threat is
very low. Otherwise, the forecast for Memorial Day is trending
more pleasant with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Sun...A mid level rex block continues over the
US through early week, as upper low lingers over the Carolinas.
A return to more typical summer weather occurs mid to late
week.

Monday night through Wednesday...With mid level blocking, upper
troughing looks to persist into the early part of this week,
resulting in unsettled weather continuing into Wednesday as
upper low and weakening sfc low linger over the area. Most
convection will likely be diurnally driven, with best chances
Tue with upper low overhead. Overall svr risk the next few days
looks low, with meager instability and shear. However, given the
cold temps aloft and steeper lapse rates can`t rule out an
isolated strong/svr tstm threat. Temps likely to remain a few
deg below normal through mid week.

Thursday through Sunday...Upper low will continue to lift
northward off the Mid-Atlantic and NE US coast Thu as high
pressure builds into the Carolinas. Weak cold front may move
through the area next weekend, with potential for weak low
pressure development off the SE coast. More typical widely
scattered diurnal convective pattern expected mid to late week
with temps returning to near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
As of 8 PM Sunday...Current conditions at TAF sites range from
VFR to IFR and continue to flip flop as weak rainbands move
across the area yet drier air begins to entrain as the surface
low weakens. Guidance was in good agreement of at least MVFR
CIGs through most of the period for all TAF sites. As lower
stratus clouds build down closer to the surface, IFR CIGs are
possible starting this evening around 02Z. At the furthest
inland terminals (PGV, ISO, and OAJ), low stratus/patchy fog
seems more likely with VIS possibly getting down to at least
5SM. Have not included reduced VIS for EWN. VIS should improve
to VFR by mid-morning, but CIGs could still be MVFR for a few
hours. All TAF sites should be back to VFR by mid-afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 245 AM Sun...Sub- VFR cigs potentially return Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and tstms Monday
through Wed, with best chances in the afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 350 PM Monday...Low pressure will dissipate inland tonight
and Monday, with light to moderate winds prevailing. Seas drop
below 6 ft overnight, with relatively favorable boating
conditions for Memorial Day.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 245 AM Sun...Despite the weak low lingering near/over the
waters into Wed, conditions across the waters will be
significantly better than the weekend. Light to moderate winds
through mid week, becoming more NE-E Tue and Wed with seas
generally 2-4 ft. There is potential for slightly stronger winds
and 5 ft seas, north of Ocracoke, Tue night into Wed with weak
sfc low development. High pressure will build over the waters
Thu and Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CB/OJC
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/OJC
MARINE...CQD/CB