Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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096 FXUS62 KMHX 130538 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 138 AM EDT Tue Apr 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough will move across the area tonight with high pressure building back into the area Tuesday. Another low pressure area and frontal system will approach the region mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 10 PM Mon...No changes with eve update. Prev discussion... As of 7 PM Mon...Only update to inc low clouds a bit this evening through overnight, as some bkn stratus may advect a bit further inland overnight into early am. Prev discussion... As of 430 PM Mon...A trough of low pressure currently is bisecting ENC from roughly Plymouth to Cedar Island. Westerly flow continues to the west of the trough with downslope flow bringing dry conditions with dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s. To the east, east to northeast flow is bringing much higher dewpoints in the mid 50s to around 60 and low stratus continues along the OBX. Little change in this pattern expected this evening with guidance showing the low stratus advecting inland to near the location of the trough after sunset. After midnight, a rather robust upper trough will push across the mid-Atlantic states and move off the Delmarva with a northerly surge developing across all of the area. Best dynamics and moisture will remain north of the area and not anticipating any precip across ENC tonight. Lows expected in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... As of 445 PM Mon...High pressure builds back into the area Tuesday with low clouds lingering along eastern sections gradually clearing through the afternoon. A large spread in temps expected with onshore flow and lingering clouds limiting highs across the OBX around 60s while southern sections that will see greater sunshine will see highs in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 425 AM Mon...Low pressure settles over the Great Lakes by midweek, while another upper cyclone (originating from energy breaking off the first low) stalls over the western CONUS. This sets up a blocking pattern over the country through the week with the Carolinas under broad cyclonic flow for the second half of the week. Slightly above average temperatures to start the week trend to below average by midweek. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Another cold front approaches Wednesday morning as a lobe of energy rotates around the eastern CONUS low. This should help pull a slug of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across the southeastern states with PWATs over the Carolinas rising to around an inch and a half. Chances of rain increase through the day as the front approaches. Still a widespread in guidance regarding instability with FROPA so slight chance of thunder was left in the grids, however models are trending toward a solution with greater instability once the front reached the coast. Overnight, widespread showers linger but thunder should fade away overnight as the front pushes offshore. Thursday and Friday...Primarily dry as considerably drier airmass advects in behind the front. Thursday`s highs in the upper 60s across most of the area and struggling to touch 70 in southernmost portions of the CWA. Overnight lows in the mid 40s. Friday will be dry as well, but slightly warmer. Saturday and Sunday...Uncertainty increases late in the period. Another system impacts the region next weekend. Details on its evolution are murky although trends are leaning toward a wetter solution so PoPs were slightly bumped up to chance of rain in the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tuesday/... As of 545 AM Tue...Prevailing VFR through the period with brief periods of IFR CIGs due to low level stratus invading from the north currently impacting northernmost TAF sites. It is likely that the SCT deck of stratus will reach southern TAF sites however there is less confidence that the coverage will remain dense enough to bring cats to IFR for those southern terminals, but TEMPO groups were included this cycle to account for the possibility. Nerly winds around 5kts overnight. Stratus is expected to begin scattering out with sunrise. After sunrise, Nerly winds build to 5 to 10kts with gusts up to 15kts developing mid morning lasting through the afternoon. Long Term /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 430 am Mon...FROPA Wednesday night into the overnight hours Thurs likely bringing in precip ahead of the front and a slight chance of thunderstorms along the front with sub-VFR cats possible. Drier weather with VFR cats to end the week. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tuesday/... As of 450 PM Mon...A trough of low pressure currently bisecting the waters from approx Cedar Island to near Plymouth. E/NE flow around 10-15 kt currently east of the tough and W/NW flow to the west with seas around 2-4 ft. A mid level disturbance with cross the area overnight with winds becoming north and surging to 15-25 kt with gusts to up to around 30 kt with seas building up to 5-8 ft northern and central waters and 3-5 ft south. Winds and seas begin to gradually diminish Tuesday afternoon. Have issued a SCA for all waters but the inland rivers. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 440 AM Sun...Seas build back quickly Tuesday with northerly surge behind the front, veering winds to the north at 10-15 kt for northern and central waters. From here, persistent northerly winds of 10-20 kt are forecast across the coastal waters and sounds with low pressure lingering off the coast for a few days. A few gusts to 25 kt are possible across the outer waters during this period but the main concern is seas building above 6 feet with the steady northerly fetch. SCA conditions are possible mid week before laying down to end the week into the weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ131- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/TL SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...SK/TL/CEB MARINE...SK/CEB

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