Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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715 FXUS62 KMHX 171111 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 711 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area from well offshore through the weekend with a weak trough over the central part of the state. A weak cold front will drop into the northern forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back to the north Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 710 AM Friday...A few showers continue off the central Outer Banks, otherwise a dry morning upcoming. Expect a moist and unstable airmass to remain in place over eastern North Carolina today as a SW flow continues around high pressure offshore and a deepening mid-level trough to approach from the west over the next day or so. Think the best chance of convection will occur along the sea breeze in the central portions of the CWA and will forecast 30-40 percent PoPs in this area with only a slight chance deep inland and along the immediate coast. Expect storms to remain below severe limits, but with precipitable water values nearing 2 inches, heavy downpours will be possible. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s coast to lower 90s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... As of 340 AM Friday...Most of the high-resolution models such as the HRRR and NSSL WRF show that convection should wane with loss of heating this evening and PoPs should be minimal overnight. There only exception is a few stray showers may impact the coastal sections toward Saturday morning and will continue a slight chance PoP near the coast late tonight as precipitable water near the coast surges to over 2 inches. Low temperatures will again be very muggy, ranging from 75 to 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 AM Fri...A mean upper trough is forecast over the Eastern US through the period while low level southerly flow continues to circulate a very moist airmass across our region with PW values AOA 2". The favorable combination of forcing aloft and moisture/instability in the low levels will result in unsettled conditions this weekend through next week with precipitation chances at or above normal and temperatures at or slightly below normal. A weak front is forecast to drop southward into the northern forecast area Monday and Monday night, then lift back north Tuesday. Another cold front will approach the area late next week. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase above climatological norms through most of the period as conditions become favorable for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Will continue chance to likely pops. Temps are expected to be near normal with highs inland around 90 Sat, then cooling slightly to the mid to upper 80s Sunday through mid next week. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Saturday/... As of 710 AM Friday...VFR conditions should prevail for this TAF cycle. Scattered thunderstorms will form on the sea breeze and could briefly drop ceilings and/or vsbys, but will be short- lived. After storms dissipate, expect mostly leftover mid/high debris clouds tonight. Coupled with a light southwest breeze, this should preclude much in the way of fog formation and keep conditions mostly VFR overnight. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will produce sub VFR conditions at times through the period. In addition conditions will be favorable for periods of low clouds and fog early each morning. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 710 AM Friday...No major changes to the marine forecast on this update. Latest high-resolution guidance shows SW winds of 15-20 knots will be the rule for most of the today into tonight. A few gusts around 25 knots may be possible later this evening into tonight, but the gusts will not be consistent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory through the short term period. Seas of 2-4 feet today, will build to 3-5 feet south of Oregon Inlet tonight. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 3 AM Fri...SCA conditions likely to develop Saturday afternoon and continue into Saturday night and early Sunday. Little change to the surface pattern of a trough of low pressure inland and high pressure offshore into early next. The gradient tightens Saturday, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt, strongest south of Oregon Inlet with seas 3-5 ft building to 4-6 ft late Sat afternoon and evening. Will hold off on headlines now, but good chance of seeing SCA conditions south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound early in the period. SW winds 10-20 kt continue Sunday with seas 3-5 ft. A weak front is forecast to drop into the northern waters Monday and Monday night before lifting back to the north Tuesday. W/SW winds 5-15 kt early Monday with seas 2-4 ft, becoming E/SE across the northern waters and remaining SW south of Hatteras. S/SW winds return for all waters Tuesday 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2-4 ft early building to 3-5 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/CQD NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/CQD MARINE...CTC/CQD

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