Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 170226 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1026 PM EDT Mon May 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through tonight with some scattered showers and storms ahead of it. High pressure returns for mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1025 PM Mon...Severe threat has greatly diminished with convective activity along the coast being this event`s last gasp. Drier conditions expected to prevail after midnight and continue through tomorrow. Prev disc...Line of thunderstorms associated with a prefrontal trough continues to push across the northern half of the FA along and north of the Pamlico River. A few additional rounds of showers and storms remain possible across the northern half through the aftn ahead of the main cold front that is expected to push through this evening. The initial line of storms likely used up much of the sfc based instability, though some elevated instability may remain across the region. With little shear around, severe risk with these storms remain primarily associated with gusty downbursts. Across the southern half of the FA, sea breeze managed to fire off a few iso showers and storms, but no severe reports. Advancing cold front will begin to merge with the prefrontal trough this evening, providing a broad line of showers and tstorms across the FA, moving eastward and offshore by around midnight. Main svr risk with these storms remain gusty downbursts, but will wane with loss of daytime heating. Behind the front, clearing skies with dewpoints dropping to the mid 50s and low temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM Mon...High pressure over the TN River Valley builds in behind the aforementioned frontal passage. Clear skies prevail with NW winds in the morning becoming more Wrly by the aftn. Despite a drop in low level thicknesses values, Wrly flow will likely provide weak downslope flow across the Piedmont region, resulting in compressional heating and aftn temps reaching the mid 80s inland and mid 70s across the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 415 AM Mon... Weak ridging builds in across the Eastern Seaboard Wed before departing off to the east. Warm front lifts N`wards across the fcst area Wed night into Thu bringing our next chance for shower and tstm activity to ENC. Ridging returns on Friday and Saturday with the hottest temperatures of the year forecast before a cold front approaches from the west to round out the weekend. Tue night and Wed...Westerly flow aloft brings in some drier air to the region. At the surface, ridging builds in across the Eastern Seaboard into Wed. Hi temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s with Lows in the 60s to upper 50s. Wed night into Thu... Upper level shortwave tracks E`wards across the Mid-Atlantic on Thu while at the surface a warm front lifts N`wards across the Carolinas Wed night reaching the NC/VA border by Thu morning and lifting well north of the area by late Thu night. Southerly flow at the surface will once again bring moisture N`wards across the CWA and with the frontal boundary providing modest lift across the region as it tracks N, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible Wed night into Thu. Latest forecast guidance suggests best chances to see rain and thunderstorm activity Wed night and Thu would be across our northern areas, though cannot rule out a shower or storm Thu afternoon across the entire CWA. For now kept SChc to Chc PoPs across the CWA Wed night and Thu and will fine tune chances as we get closer to Thu. Hi`s Wed and Thu reach the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the CWA with Low`s in the mid to upper 60s each night. Fri through the weekend... Ridging builds back into the Eastern Seaboard by Friday as the previously mentioned warm front exits the Mid-Atlantic Thu night. Onshore flow will return to the area once again with fair wx and mostly sunny skies forecast across ENC. These benign conditions will also be accompanied by a warming trend late this week into this weekend resulting in the hottest temperatures of the year. Guidance currently suggests Hi`s in the mid to upper 90`s are not out of the realm of possibility this weekend especially across the Coastal Plain. By Sun the next potential frontal boundary begins to approach from the west. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday tonight/... As of 800 PM Mon...Periodic showers and thunderstorms, some strong at times, will be the primary aviation hazard in the near term for all terminals through 02-04z with the primary hazard being strong winds of 40+ kt and some potential hail. Storms will shift south and east as cold front between GSO and RDU advances eastward, with all convection coming to an end by 04-05z. Outside of this convection, predominantly VFR conditions are expected with winds staying just elevated enough to preclude fog development although with clearing skies cannot rule out some patchy development in well sheltered freshly saturated locales. VFR prevails Tuesday with high pressure building into the area. Northwest winds back westerly in the afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/... As of 1235 PM Mon...Primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of this week as guidance is forecasting little if any precipitation across eastern NC through Sat. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 420 PM Mon...Showers and thunderstorms across the northern rivers and sounds will continue to push to the coast, reaching the northern and central waters early evening. Some gustier winds possible in stronger storms. SCA remains in effect for the coastal waters and sounds with SW flow ramping up ahead of the advancing cold front. Expect some more sct showers and storms as this front pushes over the waters tonight and into early Tuesday morning. Behind the front, winds turn NWrly and diminish to 10-15 kts. High pressure then begins to build across the region with winds becoming more light and variable during the aftn. Could see a few 6 ft seas across the central waters overnight, but return to 2-3 ft by Tue aftn. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/... As of 415 AM Mon... 10-15 knot N`rly winds Tue morning will veer to a southerly direction by Tue night as weak high pressure ridging tracks E`wards along the northern OBX. Winds return to a N`rly direction Wed morning before onshore flow finally takes over Wed night as a warm front lifts N`wards. Onshore winds increase on Thu in the wake of this N`ward lifting front as the pressure gradient tightens across the region with seas persisting at about 2-4 ft throughout the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 430 PM Mon...ENC is entering a high astronomical tide cycle assoc with the full moon this coming Monday. King Tides in combination with sely trade swells will bring elevated water levels across coastal areas through Tuesday with water levels up to 1-2 ft above ground near the water front during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for coastal zones from the Northern OBX south to Coastal Onslow County. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-196- 199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ154-156.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS/ML SHORT TERM...ML LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...MS/RCF MARINE...ML/RCF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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