Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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219 FXUS62 KMHX 240607 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 207 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Inland troughing and high pressure offshore will prevail through the end of the week. A more notable cold front will move into the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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As of 200 AM Wednesday... Broken bands of convection are ongoing from eastern NC southwest into central SC at this time, aided by a glancing shortwave aloft and a broad area of increased elevated moisture transport. Short term guidance is struggling with the evolution of the convection, which makes the impact to ENC less certain. For the rest of the night, I have increased the chance of thunderstorms for the western half of the area as there appears to be sufficient support for convection to impact the coastal plain, at minimum, for at least a few more hours. The storms have been fairly progressive, which should help to keep the flood/flash flood risk lower, but we`ll continue to monitor this potential. Additionally, most obs around the region have shown gusts of 30 mph, at the most, but the strongest cores could produce 40+ mph gusts. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore, inland troughing, weak coastal troughing off the SE coast, and nearly stationary boundary extending through the Mid- Atlantic and back into the central US. Convection has mostly diminished across ENC this evening but continues to the west. A few of the ongoing cells could clip the coastal plain counties over the next couple of hours before convection dissipates due to loss of heating. Then tonight, approaching shortwave energy should reinvigorate convection after midnight across central NC, with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms likely to move across ENC early tomorrow morning. Can`t rule out a few cells becoming organized overnight with marginal shear and plenty of instability present.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 PM Tue...Similar pattern expected Wed, with high pressure offshore, weak boundary to the west with another weak wave moving through the flow aloft. Best precip chances along the coast in the morning, shifting inland during the afternoon with strengthening seabreeze. Similar parameters will yield potential for an isolated strong/svr tstm along with the potential for locally heavy rain and localized flash flooding. Temps near climo with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 deg. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Tue... Wednesday night through Saturday...Overall not much change in the general synoptic pattern, as weak upper ridging will be squeezed by an approaching upper low to the east in the Bahamas, and an incoming trough which will be located to the west mid week. Aforementioned upper trough will dive down into the Mid- Atlantic over the weekend eventually cutting off near the Eastern Seaboard by early next week. Next upper ridge gradually builds in from the west Mon and Tue. Coverage begins to lessen after sunset but may not disappear completely with yet another shortwave tracking across the Mid- Atlantic Wed night. As we get into Thurs a more potent shortwave encroaches on the region allowing for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to persist across ENC. As a result kept high end Chc to likely PoP`s in the forecast for Thurs with theses elevated chances for precip persisting into Fri as a cold front approaches and provides a focus for precipitation. Cold front finally begins to move through the Carolinas on Sat allowing for lowering precip potential throughout the day from north to south. Given the moist environment with PWAT`s generally sitting around 2+ inches showers and storms will have the potential to produce torrential downpours through Saturday morning. This will likely result in several inches of rainfall during this time period. Frequent downpours will produce localized Flash Flood issues in urban and poor drainage areas especially on Thurs and Fri where the greatest coverage of precip is forecast with the approach of the front. Temps will be around avg Wed with below avg temps expected from Thurs into this weekend as clouds and frequent showers/storms cap our high temps. Sunday into early next week... At the surface cold front pushes offshore Sunday with high pressure ridging building in behind this departing front. This will allow for dry air to overspread ENC from north to south allowing for precip potential to be greatly diminished with a return to below climo PoPs. N-NE`rly flow will keep temps below avg to avg through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through 06z Thursday/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... - Increased TSRA risk over the next 12-24 hours Through the overnight hours, the main forecast, and aviation, challenge will be the evolution of a broad area of TSRA that stretches from Eastern NC SW through central SC. Short-term guidance has been struggling with the evolution, and has erroneously been insistent that the TSRA activity will quickly dissipate. Synoptically-speaking, it appears there is enough lift and instability to support a continuation of the ongoing TSRA threat into at least parts of ENC for several more hours, and this is the way I drew up the TAFs. Confidence in TSRA impacts is highest at KISO and KPGV, with lower confidence for KOAJ and KEWN. Once the overnight TSRA diminish, there should be a lull for several hours before TSRA redevelop along the inland moving seabreeze Wednesday afternoon and evening. Where TSRA occur, sub-VFR conditions can be expected, along with gusty/erratic winds. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tue...Scattered to numerous mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will persist into Saturday before a cold front sweeps across ENC and greatly diminishes precip chances behind the front Sat night. Occasional sub VFR conditions expected within any shower or storm that impacts the area. In addition, overnight fog/low stratus clouds will be possible early each morning especially in areas that received heavy rainfall. Expect southwesterly winds at 5-15 kts through Friday before winds shift to a N`rly direction at 5-10 kts behind a cold front on Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/... As of 245 PM Tue...Latest obs show SSW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Typical summertime pattern expected through the period, with daily thermal gradient allowing SSW winds to increase to 15-20 kt each afternoon and evening, with lighter winds 5-15 kt in the mornings. Seas will respond building to 3-5 ft tonight. Occasional gusts to 25 kt will be possible late Wed afternoon and evening. Looks too marginal to issue SCA at this time. Sct showers and tstms will likely impact the coastal waters, with best chances overnight and Wed morning. LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tue...As we get into Thurs, winds ease slightly to 10-15 kts with winds easing further on Fri and becoming more W`rly out ahead of an approaching front. Front tracks across our waters overnight Fri into Saturday shifting winds to a NE`rly direction on Sat at 5-10 kts. Seas lower down to 2-4 ft Thursday and remain at these heights along our coastal waters into this weekend. Daily chances for scattered showers and storms will bring a threat for locally enhanced winds and seas through Friday before precip chances quickly decrease from north to south as the aforementioned cold front sweeps across our waters and drier air builds in to the region on Sat. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 245 PM Tue...An unstable, and very moist, airmass will remain in place through the end of the week, and will continue to support periods of showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and flooding. Sct thunderstorms today, with a general 1-2" of rain (isolated 2-4" amounts). A similar story is expected on Wednesday. This will then be followed up by the potential for another couple of days of a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday as a front sinks south into the area. Generally speaking, the risk of flooding looks to peak Thursday and Friday due to stronger lift and a greater coverage of thunderstorms. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ196-204-205. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/CQD/SGK SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...RM/RCF MARINE...CQD/RCF HYDROLOGY...MHX