Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 110900 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 400 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will exit the area this morning with high pressure building south from the Great Lakes. Another cold front and low pressure area will Friday into early Saturday. High pressure will then build over the region Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure area and cold front may move through by Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 240 AM Wednesday...Eastern North Carolina remains firmly placed under deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough digging into the Tennessee Valley as seen on WV imagery. At the surface, the cold front has quickly pushed offshore with all locations now seeing northerly winds, but at 850mb per RAP analysis the front is just now nearing Raleigh. The surface front has sparked a broken line of showers just offshore while the upper front is spurring some light rain/heavy drizzle moving across the Coastal Plain. This precipitation is expected to spread eastward in the near term with generally light accumulations as some drier air in the column is preventing more robust rain. QPF will average about 0.1 inches or so, with a few isolated amounts up to a quarter of an inch. Precipitation will come to an end during the morning as the front and upper trough axis shift offshore and dry and cooler air advects in their wake, with sunshine eventually peaking in during the afternoon. With strong CAA during the day temperatures will hold mainly steady with highs in the low 50s for coastal areas, mid to upper 40s coastal plain. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Wednesday...Strong high pressure builds in from the north during the evening as dew points drop further into the low 20s by Thursday morning. Skies will quickly trend mostly clear overnight, but with N/NE gradient winds expected to remain up to 5-10 knots temps no effective radiational cooling is expected. Regardless, lows will fall to around freezing and as low as the upper 20s in the coastal plain, with lows around 40 OBX where even stronger winds are expected. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 4 AM Wed...Periods of unsettled weather expected through the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected to continue. Thursday through Thursday night...Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air mass. Lows will be near or below freezing for all but the coastal areas on Thur morning, where brisk NNE winds will keep temps in the 30s and low 40s here. Despite the widespread sunshine, highs Thu only in the upr 40s/low 50s. Thur night will exhibit a non-diurnal temp curve, with lows likely being realized before midnight, whereafter clouds and increasing TD`s ahead of next system will bring temps up towards daybreak, esp near the coast. There may even be a stray shower that brushes the OBX zones late overnight Thur. Friday through Saturday...Rain chances inc Fri as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur low pressure development over the deep south. This low will ride up the coast rapidly, with rain becoming likely through the day Fri, peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Maintained the categorical pops this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of the low, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm track is further inland. Latest 11/00Z ECM continues to indicate aoa 500 J/KG of sfc based capes advecting into the area with plentiful shear overnight Friday. Upr trough will still be west of the region though deepest moisture will be offshore Sat morning. Could be quite a bit of showers around first half of Sat due to good forcing with upr trough, and have a likely pop for most of the area early, with rapid drying later in the day. It will be mild both days with highs in the 60s. Sunday through Monday...Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops. Tuesday...Next potent cold front and possible low pressure system quickly advance towards the region by Mon night or Tue, and introduced high chc pops to account for this. Continued warm as swrly flow ahead of the system will be present. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term /through Wednesday/... As of 1245 AM Wednesday...Difficult forecast this morning with mainly MVFR conditions in place this hour with light rain expected to begin along the coastal plain within the hour, progressing eastward. The main front has pushed south with all sites reporting north winds. Bulk of rain will move through by 10-11z with predominantly MVFR ceilings. Guidance continues to show a weak signal for IFR ceilings 10-14Z or so and opted to continue IFR ceilings this time period based on climatology. Ceilings then quickly improve becoming VFR and remaining so after 18z. Gusty north winds through most of the period will gradually subside tonight into Thursday morning. Long Term /Thur through Sunday/... As of 4 AM Wed...Dry weather expected Thu as high pres in control. Some inc in clouds on Thur night ahead of next system. The low pressure area will quickly advance in on Friday, with sub VFR expected possibly into Sat morning with widespread rain showers and low clouds. Return to VFR later Sat into Sun. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/... As of 250 AM Wednesday...Cold front has now pushed off the waters this morning with most buoys and coastal stations reporting northerly winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Northerly winds will continue to increase in the next few hours with a few gale force gusts possible in the morning especially across the central waters, although this threat will be in too short a time frame to warrant Gale headlines. A brief lull in winds is expected tonight as front exits before strong high pressure builds back in tonight and retightens the gradient. Seas remain elevated at 5-8 feet through the period. Long Term /Thu through Sunday/... As of 4 AM Wed...No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of the week and into the weekend which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds will continue N 15-25 kt into Thur with large dangerous seas continuing above 6 ft through at least Sat as yet another storm system moves through the waters Fri night and Sat with winds switching to srly and swrly 15-25 kt with higher gusts. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...TL/MS MARINE...TL/MS

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