Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 242234 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 634 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will linger just south of our area tonight and Sunday. The front will stall well offshore Sunday as a potential tropical or subtropical low moves northeast but well off the coast through Monday. Another cold front will approach the area mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 630 PM Saturday...Patchy rain conts over mainly the nrn tier. Will cont likely pops these areas a bit longer then shld see grad less coverage later this evening, however will have at least some threat of shra activity all night with weak overrunning in place. Prev disc...Latest upper air analysis shows a broad positively- tilted trough draped across the Northeast U.S. with eastern N.C. near the right- entrance region of an H3 50-60 kt jet. Some weak mid- level energy at H5 was noted in SPC mesoanalysis drifting into central NC. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure (indicative of CAD) continues to strengthen in the wake of the cold front now stalled off the coast. Overrunning 850 mb southerly flow over the front, combined with the mid-level vorticity advection and weak jet support has aided in scattered shower activity across much of the area. Expect rain to continue into the evening as the aforementioned mid-level disturbance slowly migrates east and the front remains pinned near the coast. The extensive cloud cover today, as expected, greatly hindered instability and the odds of any real appreciable QPF associated with convective downpours. Kept PoPs at likely but did lower QPF quite a bit as a result and took out any mention of thunder as best instability looks to be offshore. Have PoPs gradually trending lower into the morning hours as mid- level support degrades. Coastal areas closest to the surface front could still see a shower or two and kept chance PoPs here. Temps cooler still as the wedge persists with lows upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The upper level trough gradually shifts east with increasingly dry air filtering in at the mid and upper levels. The high pressure ridge is expected to continue strengthening Sunday. The bulk of precip should remain offshore near the front/coastal trough but cannot rule out a few showers or two near the coast. Otherwise with increasing dry air cloud cover should finally start to slowly decrease through the day. The wedge should still keep temps pleasant for late August with highs again upper 70s inland and low 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM Sat...A drying trend for the latter half of the weekend through early next week, then a cold front moves through mid week with the next chance of showers or storms. Mainly dry for the end of the week with high pres moving back in. Sunday Night through Monday...The mid to upper level trough over the NE CONUS will will slide farther east, with high pres ridging southward into the Carolinas and possible tropical or subtropical system moving NE well off the coast. This regime will bring mainly dry conditions as drier dewpoints advect in with the high and the quasi- stationary frontal boundary remaining well south of the area. Decreased pops markedly, though kept some small 20-30% along immediate coast where some showers may brush by, though mainly should remain over the coastal waters. Much cooler for Sun night as TD`s drop into the low 60s inland to. Lows will range from the low/mid 60s coastal plain to around 70 coastal locales. Highs Monday pleasant with continued lowered dewpoints, and mainly in the 80-85 degree range. Tuesday...Continued mainly dry as tempo ridging continues with next shortwave and front still well to the west. Temps moderate a bit more into the mid to possibly some upper 80s. Wednesday through Thursday...Good agreement amongst 24/12Z global model suite in next shortwave and cold front swinging through. Have continued the chc pops for sct showers/storms mainly Wed and Wed night. Kept in a chc pop for Thur as well as there are some timing differences on the exit of the shortwave and frontal boundary. Temps will be near climo with highs mid/upr 80s and lows in the mid/upr 60s interior to low 70s coast. Friday through Saturday...Fcst a bit more murky this period. Some indication the frontal boundary lifts north or becomes hung up near the coast, and some showers develop with increasing fgen, so will keep chc pops coastal areas and silent 20 pop for interior zones. Latest ECM has a clean fropa and dry high pres, though would like to see more run-to-run continuity before removing pops. Temps will continue near climo this period. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 630 PM Saturday...Confident will have mainly sub VFR thru Sun morn...difficult to determine how much IFR wl occur. Bulk of guidance keeps cigs in MVFR range, however some periods of IFR poss espcly early then again twrd morning. On Sunday cigs shld slowly lift and eventually begin to sct out as drier air works in with VFR expected in the aftn. Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/... As of 345 PM Sat...A quasi-stationary boundary will remain well south later this weekend through early next week, therefore a drier regime expected. Still could see some ocnl sub VFR mainly in lowered cigs as some low level moisture remains, but generally a drying trend is taking shape. Next cold front with possible showers/storms arrives by Wednesday. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Sunday/... As of 630 PM Sat...Bumped up winds Albemarle Sound and Alligator River based on obs this evening...otherwise no signif changes. Prev disc...Current obs show seas around 2 feet south of Hatteras and 3 to 5 north with winds generally around 10-15 knots out of the N/NNE. Seas never got quite to 6 feet but have lingered at around 5 feet north of Oregon Inlet. Similar conditions expected in the near term before a tightening gradient between the front and the ridge increases winds to 10-20 knots, increasing to around 20 to 25 knots from north to south by Sunday afternoon. SCAs have been expanded to all waters by Sunday morning and continuing into the long term. Seas gradually build to 6 feet for all waters by Sunday night. Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/... As of 345 PM Sat...NE winds peak Sun evening with high pres inland and low pres well off the coast maximizing the gradient. Winds solid 15-25 kt with some higher gusts, and SCA for all rivers and sounds except for the Pamlico River. The wind gradient begins to relax on Monday, though seas will remain elevated for longer, through Tuesday. Return flow to the E and then S develops on Wed though will be quite light no higher than 10 kts ahead of next front that sweeps through sometime Wednesday night, which will bring winds back around to a nrly direction by Thu. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ131-137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 6 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...RF/TL MARINE...RF/TL/MS

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