Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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221 FXUS62 KMHX 210751 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 351 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure ridging down the East Coast remains in control through tonight. A cold front will push through the area late Tuesday night, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Another cold front approaches the area by the end of week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 3 AM Mon...High pressure over eastern Canada will ridge down the East Coast today as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to weaken and slide further offshore. Low level moisture will trend downward within the moderate CAA, and stratus will scatter out through the morning. Pockets of sunshine will emerge between the remaining scattered low clouds and scattered cirrus (brought about by modest height falls in the upper levels), bringing highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most, depending on the amount of sunshine received. Dry conditions prevail as mid-level subsidence keeps an overall stable and dry profile in place. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Mon...The surface ridge will begin to weaken overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Despite light to calm winds for most of the area, some lingering low clouds and scattered cirrus will provide some inhibition to radiational cooling. However, increasing low level moisture advection will be sufficient to prompt the formation of fog and low stratus with even modest cooling through the evening, and patchy fog is expected to develop late. Deep layer moisture advection will occur through most of the night, but despite PWAT values climbing from less than an inch to over 1.5 inches over the course of the night, too much dry air will linger in the mid- levels to justify any significant POP in the forecast. Lows will generally be around 60, though any locations that experience significant clearing could drop well into the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM Mon...A cold front will approach the area allowing for another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night. The frontal boundary is forecast to push offshore late Tuesday night, followed by high pressure building in, allowing for drier and cooler weather. Another front approaches the Carolinas towards the end of the week. Tuesday and Tuesday night...A deep mid/upper level trough axis over the Miss Valley and OH/TN Valley will move eastward, while at the sfc a low pressure system moves over the Great Lakes/southern Canada. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front is forecasted to approach the Carolinas Tuesday. As the frontal boundary progresses eastward, a secondary low is expected to develop and move across ENC. Models are showing an increase of instability with CAPE values 500-1000 J/kg, shear 45-60 kt, increasing helicity, and precip water ranging 1.75-2.10"...resulting in possible severe thunderstorms. SPC has upgraded the area to slight risk of severe wx with the main threat of damaging winds and possible tornadoes. Wednesday through Thursday... After the frontal passage, high pressure will build in from the west allowing a drier and cooler airmass to filter in. Expect dry wx and seasonable temperatures during this period with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday, then low 70s Thursday. Friday through Sunday...Another significant mid to upper level trough drops down from the Northern Plain into the central CONUS, but afterward models diverge in the evolution of the mid to upper level patten. At the sfc, a cold front is expected to approach the area as GFS is faster with the frontal passage due to the progressive pattern aloft, while the Euro has a cut-off low developing over the Southern Plain delaying the onset of precip for this weekend. Overall, there is low confidence for this period, therefore slightly decreased PoPs (low end chance). Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the lower 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 130 AM Mon...Very challenging forecast through the rest of the morning hours. Satellite imagery reveals stratus blanketing the entire area, with obs indicating low-end MVFR to high-end IFR ceilings. Guidance indicates that some breaks in the stratus could develop through the early morning hours as the low slides a bit further off the Mid-Atlantic coast. However, this could allow for modest radiational cooling, which will feedback by encouraging the formation of fog and low-end IFR stratus. Have opted for prevailing MVFR along US Hwy 17 at EWN and OAJ, with prevailing IFR inland at ISO and PGV through daybreak. High pressure building down the coast will prompt low clouds to scatter out by late this morning, and VFR will prevail through the day. Increased low level moisture ahead of an approaching front will bring the threat for fog and low stratus once again late tonight. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 315 AM Mon...A cold front will approach the area Tuesday and Tuesday evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms, allowing for periods of sub-VFR conditions. A dry/cooler airmass will filter in afterward, resulting in VFR conditions for the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 3 AM Mon...A north-northwesterly surge is ongoing mainly across the waters near and north of Cape Hatteras as high pressure builds inland this morning. This surge will be short- lived, with moderate to light north to northeasterly winds prevail this afternoon and evening. The ridge axis will slide over the coast overnight, veering winds and causing light flow to prevail. Seas remain elevated, around 6 to 9 ft this morning, and will gradually diminish through the period as low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly weakens and moves further offshore. Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 320 AM Mon...A cold front will approach the area from the west with SW winds increasing to 15-20 knots with possible gusts up to 25 knots Tuesday. Winds will become NW/N behind the front as winds gradually become 10-15 knots Wednesday. Seas are expected to build to 4-6 ft ahead of the front, then subside to 2-4 ft Wednesday afternoon. Thursday through Friday, winds veer to E 10-15 knots as seas are 2-3 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ135- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...BM/CB MARINE...BM/CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.