Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 092313 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 613 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler high pressure builds in from the north through early next week with several impulses aloft bringing periods of unsettled weather and clouds. A strong cold front will approach the area the middle of next week with a much better chance of appreciable rain late Wed or Thu. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
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As of 615 PM Fri...No significant changes needed to previous forecast for early eve update. Main forecast challenge tonight will be the slow erosion of mid clouds still covering good portion of the area. The majority are streaming into the area from the northwest and are currently being aided by a mid level shortwave. Went with the most aggressive guidance and continued a mostly cloudy sky into the evening, until a gradual diminishing trend in clouds is expected overnight. This will be aided by some light mixing in the boundary layer along with the short wave mentioned above, passing to the east. Both the clouds early this evening and some light boundary mixing should be enough to prevent fog concerns despite the rain earlier today. Lows tonight, based on at least some partial clearing, will dip into the 30s inland to upper 40s along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 220 AM Fri...High pressure will to our north, will ridge down across the region Saturday. We still will have enough moisture between 5 and 10,000 feet for at least of mix of sun and clouds, but we should see more sun Saturday than today. Temps will be just a few degrees cooler than typical mid December highs of around 60. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 AM Fri...Cool and breezy conditions expected for the weekend into the first half of the coming week, with mainly dry conditions expected. The next storm system and cold front which will bring next chance of appreciable rain will arrive later Wednesday evening or Thursday. The Weekend...Is appearing mainly dry, although offshore cyclonic flow around low pres will produce a good deal of clouds and nrly breezes, thereby making it feel brisk, with highs in the 50s expected. Another mid level wave will traverse NC on Sunday, thereby bringing just some patchy light rain. It appears the best chance for this will be the srn half, where a 30% POP is maintained in the fcst. Nrn half should remain dry and only 20% fcst. Highs generally in the 50s with lows in the upr 30s to low 40s. Sun will be the cooler of the days, with ovc skies keeping temps a bit below guidance. Monday through Wednesday...Reinforcing shortwave trough will swing through the Mid Atlantic states bringing renewed nrly surge of CAA, with cool temps continuing albeit mostly sunny skies with dry high pres ridging in. Max T`s range from the low 50s nrn zones to mid 50s elsewhere. Lows will drop back to around freezing or lower interior, to upper 30s/near 40 coast. Wednesday will begin to moderate a bit with thicknesses rising ahead of next trough. Wednesday Night/Thursday...Aforementioned deep shortwave trough has been modeled fairly consistently over the last several days, and is expected to propagate ewrd through the MS River Valley this period. Ahead of it, deep layer srly flow ahead of strong cold front should bring a period of appreciable rain with the GOM tapped. Have maintained the 50-60% POPs Wed night into Thu as this period appears attm to have the best chance of rain. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 615 PM Fri...MVFR cigs possible over the Outer Banks through evening, otherwise VFR expected through the period. An extensive mid layer of clouds around 5-7 kft will gradually erode across the terminals later this evening. The slow process of clearing combined with just enough wind in the boundary layer (+5kts), should be enough to prevent fog formation overnight. VFR Saturday with light northeast winds. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tue/... As of 330 AM Fri...Mainly VFR as high pres generally in control. Sunday will experience widespread stratus, though thinking this will be in the VFR range. Some light rain may ocnl affect the terminals, though little if any restriction to vsby are expected. Skies clear Mon as high pres builds back in.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 615 PM Fri...Latest obs show NNE winds 15-25 kt with seas 5-9 ft. Current SCA in excellent shape, with the coastal waters solidly in SCA criteria both based on seas of 6 to 8 feet and frequent gusts over 25 kts. A bit trickier over the sounds with frequent gusts still most prevalent over the Pamlico Sound. Guidance and observations show this will likely continue and may even increase a bit through sunset, before a marked drop off below SCA conditions later this evening. While a few gusts to 25 kts are possible over the Albemarle, Roanoke/Croatan sounds, especially in open area favored on a due north wind, they are not expected to be frequent. The gradient relaxes very slightly Saturday, with winds still out of north to northeast. Mainly 15 to 20 kts, with a few gusts closer to 25 over the coastal waters. Little change to the sea state with waves 6 to 8 feet expected. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tue/... As of 330 AM Fri...Seas will remain high with large and strong low pres well out in the open Atlantic, with 6-10 ft seas expected through the weekend. Reinforcing long period nerly swell expected next week as secondary strong low pres develops off the Canadian maritimes keeping SCA conditions through mid week. Nrly winds will generally cont 10-20 kt sustained with gusts 25+ kt at times.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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As of 615 PM Fri...Powerful swell from very distant low pressure system will continue to impact the beaches with wave run up into next week. Rough surf expected, with potential for minor ocean overwash and beach erosion for the Outer Banks. Main impacts will likely be felt from Oregon Inlet to Cape Hatteras, Sat night into Tue, but could extend to the Northern Outer Banks and Ocracoke Island. Could see impacts begin a little earlier (Sat) for Hatteras Island given trends in buoy obs. Localized portions of Hwy 12 with vulnerable dune structure may be impacted, mainly during times of high tide. High Surf Advisory will likely be needed.
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&& .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152- 154-156-158.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...EH/CQD SHORT TERM...EH LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...EH/CQD/TL MARINE...JME/CQD/TL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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