Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180737 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 337 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Subtropical high pressure will continue to ridge into the area today, with somewhat better chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday. A weak front will cross the region early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 2 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain centered off the Southeast coast today continuing to bring a very warm and moist airmass across the region. Sufficient moisture and instability will be present to trigger isol to sct thunderstorms this afternoon as PW values are progged to climb to near 2" with MUCAPEs around 2500J/Kg through peak heating. The main trigger for storms will be the sea breeze, and especially intersecting sea breeze and potential outflow boundaries. With bulk shear only around 10-15 kt and mid level lapse rates around 5.5-6C/Km, most storms should remain below severe limits though strongest storms could produce damaging wind gusts. SPC has a marginal risk across the Piedmont and into NE NC, clipping the far NW portion of the forecast area. Low level thicknesses change little from yesterday and expect highs in the lower 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Tuesday...Expect showers and thunderstorms to diminish through the evening with loss of heating but a deamplifying shortwave and surface trough reflection will push across the southern states and into the area late tonight bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms overnight. 00z guidance is showing the best chances along the coast and have highest PoPs in this area. Could see some marginally strong storms as bulk shear improves to around 15-25kt but we`ll be at a diurnal minimum for instability so think the severe threat will be low. Mild temps continue overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 310 AM Tue...Hot and humid conditions with occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through Thursday night. Somewhat drier weather is expected late week into the beginning of next week with only a slight chance for a stray shower/thunderstorm, but hot and muggy conditions should persist. Wednesday through Thursday...The period starts with a weak shortwave forecast to flatten the persistent upper level ridge over the area for the past few days. As is typical for a summertime pattern, the best coverage for showers and thunderstorms will be in the afternoon through early evening with optimal solar insolation. A stronger shortwave is forecast to approach the region Thursday. A glance at the ECM ensemble guidance shows a fairly large spread in the guidance for rain Thursday afternoon/evening, with most members less enthusiastic on rain chances than the deterministic ECMWF. Continued chance PoPs for all areas, then drying from west to east late Thursday as shortwave moves offshore. Highs thursday will near the mid 90s, and with dewpoints rising close to the mid 70s a good chunk of the region could see heat indices over 100 degrees. Friday through Monday...Front passes early Friday followed by somewhat drier moisture levels Friday afternoon into next weekend, thus will continue with a mainly dry forecast. Could see an uptick in shower/thunderstorm activity beginning early next week as moisture increases on southerly flow. The front will not bring much relief from the heat and humidity however, with hot temps and high humidities continuing as hts remain above climo. Highs in the 90s inland to 80s beaches with lows in the 70s. .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/ As of 2 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the TAF period but there will be a few opportunities for brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. As has happened over the past few night, we could see a few hours of IFR or MVFR stcu/st to develop early this morning with sufficient low level moisture present below the nocturnal inversion. Confidence of occurrence is low as guidance is not developing much this morning, but the airmass has changed little over the past few night so cannot rule it out. Then isol to sct showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon. Storm activity diminishes this evening, but will increase again late tonight as a weakening impulse moves across the area with best chances for storms occuring along the coast. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Tue...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through Fri morning with brief periods of sub VFR conditions. Could also be some overnight/early morning fog each morning with sufficient low level moisture expected. Gusty conditions possible Thurs/Fri with passage of a weak front. Predominant VFR conditions expected Saturday will dry air filtering in behind the front. && .MARINE... Short Term /Through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure remains centered offshore today, brining persistent southwesterly flow. Moderate winds this morning will become gusty once again midday into early evening as an mesoscale thermal gradient once again tightens. Strongest winds, with occasional gusts to 25 kts, will exist across the Pamlico Sound and along the waters near Hatteras Island and the Northern Outer Banks. Winds back to S or even briefly SE tonight as a surface trough approaches the area. The thermal gradient will relax overnight with winds diminishing some across the sounds and northern waters, but winds expected remain elevated across the outer portions of the central and southern waters. Seas continue around 2-4 ft in weak southerly windswell into this evening, then build to 3-5 ft late tonight. Wavewatch is showing a brief period with seas up to 6 ft across the outer portions of the central and southern waters late tonight while NWPS has a shorter winds of seas to 6 ft and only in the southern waters. Confidence is fairly low whether this will occur as this is the first run with seas to 6 ft, and with the short window the models are showing seas to SCA range, will cap seas to 5 ft at this time. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Tue...SW winds 10-20 kt are expected Wed with the strongest flow expected in the late afternoons and evenings due to increasing land/water thermal gradient when we could see ocnl gusts to 25 kt, esp for the Pamlico Sound and the srn/ctrl waters. As with the previous few days, conditions will be short lived and thus do not anticipate needing an SCA. Seas will increase a bit to 3-5 ft, with a choppy 5 second periodicity. SCA conditions are probable with a front moving through Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon as SW flow is forecast to increase to 15-25 kt with seas building up to 6-8 ft. As front pushes offshore winds will veer to the northwest 10-15 kt Fri afternoon and will help knock seas down to 3-5 ft by Friday evening. N winds around 10 kt early Sat will become light around 5 knots in the afternoon and then back to the S back to around 10 knots with seas 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM...MS AVIATION...SK/MS MARINE...SK/MS

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