Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 181434 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 934 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Strong ridging remains in control today. A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight, crossing the area early Sunday. Cold high pressure then dominates the region for most of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 935 AM Sat... The latest analysis is showing a high pressure ridging in from the north, while a weak coastal trough is over the coastal waters this morning. The weak coastal trough has developed light rain showers along it and may move closer to the coast this afternoon, but overall conditions should remain dry for most of the day under a canopy of clouds. Later in the afternoon, POPs begin to trend up as low level moisture transport increases. However, lack of significant lifting mechanism keeps POPs slight chance for most to low end chance along the immediate coast in the hours leading up to sunset. Highs will range from near normal along the Albemarle- Pamlico Peninsula where ridging will keep weak CAA in place, to several degrees above normal south of US Hwy 264 where WAA begins by mid- afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Sat...Height falls aloft continue tonight as broad troughing overspreads the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored well offshore as low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes. This will prompt a strengthening, 50+kt LLJ to work over the area in the evening, bringing gusty S to SW winds and very efficient low level moisture transport. Showers are likely across most of the area with the theta-e surge late this evening into early Sunday morning. However, without upper level support for significant lift and in the absence of any notable instability, rain rates will mostly be light, and QPF is low (<.1 in for most) despite scattered to widespread shower coverage through much of the night. The band of greatest moisture will work offshore within several hours of sunrise as the cold front associated with the aforementioned low begins to work into the area from the west, and POPs trend downward at the end of the period. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 AM Sat...A cold front will push thru Sunday followed by high pres for much of the work week. Sunday and Sunday night...Cold front will cross the region Sunday. Some sct light shra early coast will end by late morn with decreasing clouds form W to E. Cold advection doesn`t kick in til late and expect mild highs mainly in upr 50s to lower 60s. Much colder and drier air will spread in Sunday night with lows dropping into the 25 to 30 dgr range inland and low/mid 30s beaches. Monday through Wed...Arctic high pressure will grad build E thru mid week. Mdls cont to show short wave crossing Tue but moisture expected to remain mainly well offshore and cont only slight pops for portions of OBX Tue into Tue night. Expect mclr skies inland thru period with cold highs in the lowers 40s Mon and Tue warming a bit to mid/upr 40s Wed. Lows will be in the 20s inland to mainly 30s beaches. Thu thru Fri...Grad warming this period as high pres crests over the region Thu with building hgts aloft. The high will then slide offshore Fri with srly winds developing. Clouds will be increasing Fri and may see small chc of shra late. Highs will be in the 50s Thu then reach lower 60s most spots Fri. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday Night/... As of 630 AM Sat...VFR conditions today as high pressure ridges into the area. Mid clouds early this morning will linger through much of the day, with low level flow becoming increasingly southerly this afternoon, prompting the development of some lower clouds around 5kft or high. This evening, a strong 50+kt S to SWrly LLJ moves over eastern NC, bringing gusty winds, several hours of LLWS as surface flow is more southerly than 850 mb flow, and rapidly increasing low level moisture content. The chance for MVFR ceilings will begin to increase toward the end of the TAF period, with sub-MVFR possible at times in showers, but not expected to prevail as low level winds prompt persistent mixing. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 245 AM Sat...Any linger sub VFR cigs early Sun will quickly dissipate as drier air spread in with VFR expected bulk of the day. VFR will dominate Mon thru Wed as cold dry air spreads in with high pres. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 935 AM Sat...A weak coastal trough will move close to the coast, bringing generally light and easterly flow this morning through early afternoon. Then, high pressure off the coast and low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will prompt the development of a strong SWrly LLJ that will move over the coastal waters this evening, resulting in rapidly deteriorating conditions. These stronger low level winds will readily mix to the surface across the relatively warmer waters near the Gulf Stream, with confidence lower in efficient mixing closer to the beaches and across the inshore waters. Have opted for a Gale Warning for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet tonight through Sunday morning, with the most consistent Gale conditions expected beyond 5-10 miles offshore. SCA has also been issued for the larger inshore sounds and the Alligator River, where frequent gusts to 25 kt are expected overnight, and SCA extended for coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet. Marginally hazardous seas (4-6 ft) prevail across coastal waters today. Then, seas increase rapidly in accordance with the wind this evening, reaching 6-12+ ft by late evening, and remaining in that range through sunrise. Despite increasingly warm and moist air being advected across the coastal waters, sea fog is not expected to be an issue thanks to the strong winds overnight. Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 245 AM Sat... Poor boating expected most of this period. Gusty SW winds of 20 to 30 kts with higher gusts early Sunday will become NW 15 to 25 kts in aftn as cold front crosses. Seas of 6 to 11 ft at daybreak will subside to 5 to 7 ft late. NW winds 15 to 25 kt Sun night become N 15 to 20 kts Mon. Seas will slowly subside below 6 ft Mon aftn. Short wave crossing Tue will lead to low pres developing well offshore and combined with high pres to the W will lead to NNE winds increasing to 20 to 30 kts and seas building back to 5 to 7 ft. NNE winds will cont at 15 to 25 kts Tue night and Wed with seas 5 to 7 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for AMZ150. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...BM/CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...RF/BM AVIATION...RF/CB MARINE...RF/BM/CB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.