Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000 FXUS62 KMHX 180522 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1222 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate through tonight. A warm front will lift north through the area late Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area early Wednesday morning. An area of low pressure will pass to the south of the area on Thursday and Thursday night. Cool high pressure will build over the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 935 PM Mon...No sig changes needed to previous forecast for update. As high pres drifts offshore to the N cstl trof/warm front will begin to approach late with increasing clouds. May see some shra near cst but bulk of region will remain dry. Fog will be the main threat overnight as light erly flow and moist low levels in place. Lows will range from lower 40s well inland to upper 40s/lower 50s along the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... As of 3 PM Mon...Any fog or low stratus will slowly burn off through mid morning, as mixing will be slow to commence with light low lvl flow. WAA will strengthen through the day as coastal trough breaks down. Not a whole lot of moisture available however, and only expecting sct showers at best, esp during the afternoon hours. The majority of the region will remain rain free. Temps rise into the 65-70 degree range for afternoon highs. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 PM Mon...Updated to inc pops Thu/Thu night as latest 17/12Z global model suite, esp ECM/CMC indicate a bit more available moisture with low tracking just south of the area. Still questions regarding p-type and if/when a changeover to some wet snow will take place, but appears if any snow occurs in conjunction with CAA, would be interior zones as well as nrn tier, and retained mention of snow here, esp after midnight Thu night. As of 330 AM Monday...Another cold front quickly pushes across on Wednesday with showers/rain expected late Tue night night into Wednesday morning. More rain is expected Thursday as a low rapidly develops along the front. Confidence is increasing in some wintry precip late Thursday night into Friday before high pressure takes control for the weekend. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Surface low will track northeast into New England Tue night, pushing a warm front north through the area, then dragging a cold front through the region Wednesday morning. Best chance for rain continues to be Tuesday night ahead of the cold front. Some mid- level dry air should prevent any appreciable rainfall during the day although a few coastal showers are probable with an offshore surface trough. Temps will be well above climo, with highs Tue in the lower 70s. Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Midwest will build over the Carolinas late Wednesday gradually bringing an end to the precip threat from northwest to southeast. Temperature curve Wednesday will be nondiurnal with highs likely being realized around midnight before falling through much of the day with strong CAA aloft. Thursday into Friday...High pressure building into the area from the north will usher colder air back into Eastern NC. The cold front is forecast to stall southeast of the area with low pressure developing along it for late next week as a strong shortwave trough dives southeast out of the upper MS valley. The event will be mainly rain during the day, but as the low exits off the coast more robust CAA is forecast in its wake with 850 mb temps falling below zero across the entire FA. There is still some spread in the global models regarding ptype issues although the ECMWF has come more on board with the potential for snow late Thursday night, in line with the GFS. The CMC continues to be an outlier with the UKMET still showing no snow potential. The ECMWF and GFS both have support in their respective ensembles and for this reason decided to add a mention of rain/snow into the forecast for Thursday night into Friday morning although specific details will need to be sorted out in the next few days. With warm ground temps accumulating snow is currently not anticipated save possibly grassier locations. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will hold in the 40s with only low 40s expected Friday. Lows both nights expected to fall into the 20s inland. With prolonged 15-25 kt northeasterly flow over the sounds for the period with pinched pressure gradient, there is a concern for minor water rises/flooding for the typically susceptible Down East Carteret area and vicinity. Saturday and Sunday...Drier weather takes control as high pressure shifts overhead, with temperatures expected to moderate into the 50s over the weekend. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1215 AM Tue...VFR over the region currently with high clouds. As low lvls moisten with onshore flow expect some sub VFR to develop thru daybreak in low cigs and patchy fog...will have mainly MVFR with lcl IFR. Cigs will slowly lift thru morn with VFR expected again most sites this aftn. As shra become numerous this evening ahead of cold front expect sub VFR to again develop. Long Term /Wed Through Saturday/... As of 335 AM Monday...Unsettled weather is expected through Thursday night as a series of low pressure systems move to the south of the area, resulting in periods of sub-VFR conditions. Some -SN may be briefly observed at sites late Thursday night as low pressure develops offshore. Cool high pressure rebuilds over the area Friday with VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tue/... As of 935 PM Mon...Latest obs show NE/E winds 10-20 kt with seas 3-5 ft. High pres will slide offshore to the N tonight with winds becoming erly 5 to 15 kts late. Winds will shift becoming S/SW 5-15 kt Tue afternoon. Seas will subside from 3 to 5 ft tonight to 2 to 4 ft Tue. Long Term /Tue night through Friday/... As of 340 AM Monday...Winds veer southerly through Tue night as warm front lifts north across the waters, then to the north as cold front quickly crosses Wednesday. SCA conditions are likely starting overnight Wednesday as winds increase to 15-20 kt, increasing to 20-30 kt late Thursday with seas building to 8-10 feet. A period of Gales appears possible for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound Thursday night and Friday morning. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 630 PM Mon...NNE gale force winds are looking more likely Thursday night into Friday, as an area of low pressure lifts along the NC coast. There is potential for minor soundside water level rises for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret and areas along the lower Neuse River, Thursday night and Friday. Minor inundation will be possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD/TL SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL/MS AVIATION...RF/MS MARINE...CQD/TL/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

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