191
FXUS64 KMOB 111239
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
739 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

  - Afternoon heat indices remain in the 100 to 107 through
    weekend, with localized spots potentially reaching 108-110.

  - Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue today,
    increasing to numerous to widespread by Sunday and into early
    next week. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized
    flooding, is possible.

  - A Moderate risk of rip currents for all area beaches be
    present through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

One more day of typical mid-July weather will occur today before
an anomalous pattern brings bouts of heavy rain early next week.
As mentioned in the earlier discussion update, we are expecting
convection to develop along the coast late tonight into the
morning hours due to low-level convergence along a land-breeze.
Most of this convection is expected to move south over the Gulf
throughout the morning, followed by a brief lull in land-based
activity early afternoon before adequate instability allows storms
to develop north of I-10. Some of the stronger storms will be
capable of gusty surface winds, small hail, and frequent
lightning. Similar to this past evening, we are expecting the
convection to linger well inland through mid-evening. High
temperatures today will range from 91-96 degrees. With surface
dewpoints mostly ranging from 73 to 77 degrees, maximum apparent
temperatures (heat indices) should range from 100-107 degrees with
isolated short duration instances as high as 110 degrees. Lows
tonight will be about 4 to 9 degrees above normal, with middle 70s
inland, upper 70s for our coastal communities, and around 80
degrees at the beaches.

The pattern shift starts late tonight into Sunday as a positively
tilted upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the middle
Mississippi Valley begins to have an effect on our region. While
the northern half of the trough moves eastward over the western
Atlantic, the southern half of the trough in the form of a
shortwave with a cutoff upper low pressure area over the Ohio
Valley becomes detached and migrates slowly southward over the
Tennessee Valley by noon on Monday. This upper-level feature will
then retrograde westward toward the southern plains Monday night
through Tuesday under a large elongated upper high pressure area
situated over much of the northern U.S. Until then, a weak surface
low pressure area reflected in the lower levels under the upper
low will also migrate into our region Sunday night into Monday. We
are still expecting a surface boundary to be somewhere near or
enter into our forecast area, but it is difficult to determine
exactly where due to convective outflow contamination. With PWATS
increasing to an average around 2.3" Sunday and Monday, numerous
to widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur both days, with
the potential for localized flooding. The WPC has our area
outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall not only on Sunday and Monday, but for Tuesday as well
despite the lower rain chances. It is possible that we could see a
corridor of 3 to 6" of rainfall for this event if training of
slow-moving storms are able to set up across the area. Otherwise,
we would anticipate a general 1 to 3" of rainfall across the
forecast area. We will resume our typical mid-July weather through
the latter half of the week as upper high pressure rebuilds over
the region. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR flight category prevails across the region this morning into
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible again this afternoon for much of the area, locally
reducing flight category at times. Winds remain out of the south
to south-southwest at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southerly to southwesterly flow
prevails through Sunday, becoming a moderate westerly flow Monday.
Light to occasionally moderate westerly flow prevails through the
remainder of the week. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet for the
weekend into early next week, potentially reaching 4 feet late
Monday. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      93  76  92  73 /  30  10  80  70
Pensacola   92  80  92  77 /  30  20  80  80
Destin      90  81  89  78 /  20  20  50  80
Evergreen   94  74  91  71 /  20  20  80  70
Waynesboro  96  75  91  72 /  10  10  80  70
Camden      93  75  89  72 /  10  10  80  70
Crestview   94  76  92  73 /  40  20  80  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$