098
FXUS64 KMOB 231956
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
256 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New Discussion, Marine...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Tonight through Monday Night...

Clouds thicken from west to east tonight as a cold front
approaches the forecast area from the northwest. Ahead of this
cold front, a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will
move into northwestern portions of our area after midnight (most
likely around the 2-3am timeframe) and reach as far southeast as
the I-65 corridor (or just a bit further south and east) by
daybreak Monday. The line of showers and storms will move into an
increasingly less favorable environment as it moves toward our
area, with predominate showers but there will be some embedded
thunderstorms as well. Strongest upper dynamics will have lifted
north of our area by late tonight into early Monday, and this
combined with the forecast soundings continuing to suggest very
poor lapse rates from the surface up to nearly 3km, suggests some
weakening of the line as it moves into our area and the storms
will not likely be surface based. However, mid level lapse rates
do improve above, giving way to some weak, elevated instability.
Some small hail (and maybe some gusty winds) cannot be ruled out
with some of the more robust storms as they enter and move
southeast across our area late tonight into early Monday.

The weak front looks to slow or stall just north of the coast on
Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will
likely still be ongoing along the front, or along any remnant
outflows from the overnight activity, during the morning hours
(especially over interior southwest and south-central AL and into
the western FL panhandle). There is still some uncertainty as to how
late into the day on Monday the showers and storms will continue
over our southern-southeastern zones, but most guidance suggests
that the majority of the activity will be ending across our area by
mid to late morning. There is a Marginal Risk out for the southern
half of our forecast area on Monday, and if the storms do linger
long enough into the morning as daytime instability increases, a few
storms could still be capable of producing gusty winds or small
hail. The overall severe threat though is very minimal, however.
Monday night, the upper level trough axis moves east of the area and
deep layer drier air overspreads the area in its wake, bringing an
end to precipitation.

As far as temperatures go, tonights lows in the mid 50`s eastern
interior zones while in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the remainder
of the area. Highs on Monday will mostly be in the mid 70s area-wide
Monday (maybe lower 70s along the immediate coast). On Monday night,
lows over most of the interior will range from the upper 40s to the
lower 50s, but mid and even a few upper 50s closer to and along the
coast. DS/12


Tuesday through Sunday...

Dry forecast through the end of the work week with rain chances
entering the forecast again by next weekend.

Northwesterly flow aloft prevails through at least Thursday on the
periphery of the trough aloft. Weak ridging aloft briefly builds
into the region on Thursday before a series of subtle shortwaves
drift across the Deep South and Southeast on Friday and Saturday.
While there are still significant differences in model guidance
(with regard to the shortwaves) as we roll into the weekend, the
overall pattern supports scattered showers and maybe a few storms on
Saturday. Meanwhile, a more potent shortwave swings across the the
Plains Sunday into Monday, which could lead to another round of
showers and storms late in the weekend through early next week.

Beach and Coastal Forecast - The risk for rip currents remains LOW
through Thursday. Rip current MOS probabilities quickly jump to 85-
91% (correlating with either a high-end MODERATE Risk or a HIGH
Risk) through the morning hours on Friday at all local beaches. We
will continue to monitor these trends, but expect an uptick in
the rip current risk as we approach next weekend. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

VFR flight categories generally prevailing across most of the region
this afternoon, but some MVFR clouds (and occasional ceilings)
over MS. This cloud cover will be spreading slowly east this
afternoon into evening hours. There could be some brief erosion of
this MVFR cloud deck this evening, but ceilings lower and become
more widespread MVFR to IFR at times tonight as a cold front
moves into the area from the west and associated showers and a
few thunderstorms increase. Most of the showers and storms will
occur between 09z-15z Monday. These MVFR/IFR ceilings, as well as
the showers and isolated storms, will continue over eastern
portions of the forecast area into late morning or early afternoon
Monday. Winds become light southwesterly tonight as the front
approaches. DS/12

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

A weak cold front approaching the marine area from the northwest on
Monday is expected to settle near the coast by Monday evening. Ahead
of the front, chances of showers increase late tonight into the day
Monday, with a few thunderstorms mixed in. Wind will vary in
direction through much of the upcoming week and be mostly light, but
become more predominate onshore by Friday and begin to increase
slightly along with slightly building seas. Only potential hazards
to small craft early this week will be possibility of some gusty
winds near any storms that may be over the marine area on Monday and
then conditions may approach SCEC (15 to 20 knots and/or seas 6
offshore) criteria by Friday, which could also pose a hazard to
small craft. DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      60  77  55  81  57  83  55  80 /  50  70  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   63  75  59  76  60  80  57  76 /  40  80  10  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      62  72  60  75  60  78  58  75 /  40  80  10  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   55  77  49  83  51  82  48  79 /  60  80  10  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  76  51  82  52  80  50  80 /  80  40   0   0   0  10   0   0
Camden      58  73  49  80  51  78  49  77 /  80  80   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   55  77  52  81  51  83  49  79 /  50  90  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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