354
FXUS64 KMOB 311756
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early part of the evening. By the
latter part of the evening and especially into the overnight
hours, low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings will move into the region as
showers and storms begin to increase in coverage. Storms will
become more widespread during the morning hours. Expect brief
reductions in visibility and ceilings in some of the heavier
activity. A few stronger storms may also be possible, capable of
producing gusty and erratic winds. /96

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Weak upper level ridging remains in place over the state of Alabama
early this morning while an upper level shortwave continues to slowly
move across eastern Louisiana. A MCS, associated with the upper
shortwave, is also moving across southeastern Louisiana and will
continue to weaken as it pushes into southern portions of
Mississippi thanks to the influence of the upper ridging. While the
bulk of the convection is expected to dissipate before it moves into
our area, we can`t rule out a few light showers in our far western
zones around sunrise as the remnant outflow slides into the area. As
we head into the rest of today, shortwave impulses will continue to
move over the Lower Mississippi Valley with another MCS likely
approaching from the west this afternoon. Given that we`ll still be
under the influence of the ridging, we expect this system to weaken
before it moves into our area (similar to this morning). There could
be a few showers and storms that try to develop over southeast
Mississippi or interior portions of the area where there could be
lingering outflow boundaries, but otherwise most areas should remain
dry today. Highs this afternoon will be rather warm with upper 80s
and lower 90s expected across the area. Overnight lows tonight range
from the middle 60s well inland to the middle 70s at the beaches.

A more potent shortwave swings across the Lower Mississippi Valley
Friday night and into the Southeast on Saturday, ultimately pushing
the upper ridging east. This upper level support combined with
better moisture return will result in an unsettled pattern towards
the latter half of the period. Showers and storms will begin to
increase in coverage late Friday night and into Saturday morning as
a remnant outflow boundary pushes into the area from the west.
Additional showers and storms are also expected to develop Saturday
afternoon as another surface boundary nudges into the area and
serves as a focus for convective development. While deep layer shear
is expected to remain rather weak (around 20-30 knots) during this
time, we could see some strong or perhaps severe storms develop
on Saturday in the form of wet-microbursts. Gusty winds will be
the primary concern with any stronger storms with hail being less
likely given that storms will be water loaded. Storms will also be
capable of producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some
localized or nuisance type flooding especially given the slower
storm motions. "Cooler" temperatures are expected on Saturday
given the higher rain chances and cloud cover with highs likely
topping out in the lower and middle 80s.

On a beach related note, we expect the rip current risk to increase
through the day today as southeasterly flow strengthens. RCMOS
guidance suggests that a low risk of rip currents may linger this
morning before quickly increasing to a moderate risk by this
afternoon. Therefore, we have opted for a moderate risk at all area
beaches today and a high risk for dangerous rip currents on Sunday.
/14

SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

A complex pattern with significant model differences make for an
uncertain forecast for much of this period. Guidance begins to
diverge as early as Saturday night in the wake of what will likely
be numerous showers and thunderstorms during the day on Saturday.
It`s possible that early day storms significantly stabilize the
atmosphere for Saturday night. In addition, model guidance
differs on if there will be additional shortwave/MCS activity
moving in from the west or does shortwave ridging actually begin
to build in the wake of the Saturday system. Overall guidance has
not done well in this pattern back to our west over the past few
days and that appears to persist for us. For now, will keep precip
in the chance range Saturday night. Consensus guidance is as high
as 60-70% for Sunday and this seems high given the aforementioned
uncertainties. For now will go with 50-60%, mainly due to the
possibility of another shortwave moving into the area and the
presence of significant deep layer moisture and instability.
However, further refinements to rain chances will need to be made
as we get closer in time and Sunday could still end up drier than
currently forecast.

We transition to more of a diurnal pattern of isolated to
scattered afternoon storms for early to mid next week as upper
level forcing appears to be very subtle. By Thursday it appears
that we start to get into the influence of upper level northwest
flow as a strong upper ridge develops in the western states. There
are significant disagreements in the guidance on exactly how
strong/far west the ridge builds and how deep of a downstream
trough will develop in response across the eastern states.
There are too many unknowns so will keep low end chance POPs in
for Thursday. Bottom line is there is a lot to iron out in this
pattern and several adjustments will likely be needed as we go
through time.

Temperatures overall will remain near to slightly above normal
through the period. 34/JFB



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  83  70  85  71  87  71  88 /  40  90  50  60  20  30   0  20
Pensacola   75  83  73  85  74  86  73  87 /  40  80  40  50  20  20   0  10
Destin      75  84  73  84  74  86  75  87 /  30  60  40  50  20  20   0  10
Evergreen   67  83  66  87  66  88  67  91 /  30  70  50  60  20  30  10  20
Waynesboro  69  83  67  85  68  88  69  92 /  40  90  50  60  20  30  10  20
Camden      67  83  67  85  66  88  68  90 /  30  70  50  60  20  30  10  20
Crestview   68  85  66  87  67  90  67  91 /  20  60  40  60  20  30   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Sunday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through late Sunday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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