Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 191143 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
543 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.


.UPDATE...The forecast remains on track early this morning. Latest
radar shows most of the shower activity has progressed to the
east. Some light showers continue over the marine areas, but this
is expected to dissipate/move out of the area within a couple
hours. Winds have picked up behind the front as well, with wind
gusts between 20 and 25 knots in the Mobile area in the last hour
or so. Did adjust sky cover slightly since the clouds seem to be
slower in progressing to the southeast according to satellite
imagery. Other than this, no other changes were needed at this
time. /26


12Z issuance...A cold front is currently moving through the area.
This feature brought light showers to the TAF sites earlier this
morning; but, the radar indicates that most of the shower activity
has moved on to the east, with a few light showers currently over
our marine areas. All shower activity is expected to end for our
area in the next couple of hours. Low-end MVFR CIGs were reported
at the TAF sites at issuance; however, this is expected to lift
quickly this morning to VFR as drier, colder air is filtered in
from the north behind the front. Clouds will decrease from
northwest to southeast through the day as well, with clear skies
expected by late afternoon/early evening. Lastly, strong winds
will be a concern today, with sustained north winds generally
between 10 and 20 knots through the day and for most of tonight.
Winds gusts between 20 and 25 knots are also expected, with
locally higher gusts to 30 knots possible. /26


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...Due to persistent moderate to strong northerly winds
expected through early afternoon Tuesday, the Small Craft Advisory
has been extended and is now in effect from 3 AM this morning until
12 PM Tuesday for southern Mobile Bay, Mississippi Sound, and the
coastal waters. /26

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2020/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Upper level zonal flow
continues over the northern Gulf coast early this morning as a
northern stream trough progresses over the Great Lakes and upper
Ohio Valley regions. This feature will then move over the
northeastern CONUS by Monday morning, with generally zonal flow
maintaining its hold over our area. At the surface, a cold front is
currently progressing over our area, and radar shows light showers
out ahead of it.

No lightning has been reported in the last 30 minutes or so;
therefore, the threat of thunder has diminished. Expecting shower
activity to end for our area by mid-morning as well. Furthermore,
winds will begin to increase to be between 10 and 15 knots this
morning, with higher winds near the coast. Sky cover will also begin
to decrease from northwest to southeast during the day today. By
this evening, skies are expected to be clear as surface high
pressure builds into the southeastern CONUS from the west. Dry
weather will then comprise the rest of the near term period.

Dry weather is expected into tomorrow; however, it will be much
colder than we`ve seen recently. In fact, temperatures will be below
normal for this time of year after being well above normal for a
stretch. Highs today are only likely to reach the lower to mid 50s.
By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, low temperatures will
then drop into the upper 20s further inland and into the lower 30s
near the coast.

Lastly, a HIGH risk of rip currents is in effect through this
afternoon. /26

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...An upper trof pattern
over the eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic
Tuesday night followed by an upper ridge building from the central
states into the eastern states. A deep layer dry northerly flow
prevails as a large surface ridge builds into the eastern states
with cool/cold conditions expected for the forecast area. Highs
on Monday and Tuesday range from the mid 40s inland to near 50
close to the coast, values which are about 10 degrees below
normal. Lows Monday night range from the mid 20s inland to near 30
close to the coast followed by similar temperatures for Tuesday
night. A low risk of rip currents is expected through the period.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper ridge over the
eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic through
Thursday as an amplifying upper trof advances from the northwest
states into the central states. There continues to be uncertainty
with this next system, but current indications are that an upper
low evolves over the central Plains within the upper trof pattern
Thursday night and then moves off towards the Great Lakes through
Saturday. An associated surface low moves from the southern Plains
towards the New England area during the period, but depending on
how the upper pattern plays out, this system will bring a cold
front will move through the forecast area as early as Thursday
night or as late as Friday night. Dry conditions continue through
Wednesday followed by slight chance to chance pops returning to
much of the area on Thursday. Likely pops follow for Friday then
mostly dry conditions are expected for Saturday. Instability
continues to look rather limited ahead of/along the cold front but
have opted to keep mention of a slight chance of thunder for
Thursday night into Friday and will continue to monitor. /29

MARINE...Northerly flow has developed as a cold front continues to
progress over the area late tonight/early this morning. The front is
expected to continue eastward and be to our east by mid-morning,
however. Offshore flow will become moderate to strong this morning
and persist into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
from 3 AM this morning until 12 PM Monday for the increased
northerly winds over the coastal waters, as well as the Mississippi
Sound and Mobile Bay. Although, this may need to be extended into
Tuesday. Northerly winds and seas will slowly start to diminish
Tuesday, then become easterly by early Wednesday morning. Moderate
easterly flow is expected through late week, but winds will shift to
be from the southeast and begin to increase early Friday as another
cold front approaches from the west. /26


AL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ631-632-650-

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ630.



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