Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000 FXUS63 KMPX 050449 AAB AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1049 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Benign weather will persist through the short term period. Dry northwest upper flow will continue as the surface high centered just to our east remains nearly stationary. We`ll see some occasional mid/high clouds and perhaps some patchy fog tonight, but otherwise it will be a continuation of mild temperatures and dry weather. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 The high amplitude upper ridge to our west will broaden as it shifts east into our area over the weekend and into the first half of next week. Not much has changed in the overall forecast expectations, other than a slowing down (and weakening) of the storm system that has been advertised for the upper Midwest during the middle part of the week. The preponderance of guidance still brings a system through the area, but not looks to be in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time frame and not as strong as previous solutions suggested. It still looks to cool down for the end of the week behind this system, and the GEFS and EPS agree on this general evolution of things. The main forecast concern is with how warm temperatures will get in the Sunday to Wednesday time frame. Continued to go above guidance, consistent with what we`ve seen in terms of the cold bias with most of the guidance, and stuck close to the NBM`s 75th percentile for highs (and nudging lows up a bit, particularly in the metro area). The new forecast has record temperatures indicated for highs on Tuesday. There could be records on the other days, but Tuesday`s records are "cool" in comparison, so they are the most attainable. Pushed the arrival of PoPs back given the slower evolution of things, and now include chance PoPs Tuesday night through Wednesday as the upper trough and associated surface low work into the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 VFR conditions and light easterly or calm winds through the period. Some mid level clouds tonight. KMSP...No concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S 15G30 kts. MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Borghoff is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.