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FXUS63 KMPX 130001
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
701 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous air quality this weekend from Canadian wildfire smoke.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday evening. A more
  widespread rain event likely Tuesday night - Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A broad area of Canadian wildfire smoke has settled in across
the Upper Midwest over the past half day. AQI values are at
Unhealthy levels across the state, & may decrease further with
the arrival of another wave of dense smoke this afternoon. While
it`s an otherwise pleasant Summer day, it would be best to take
precautions and avoid strenuous outdoor activities & remain
indoors if possible. The smoke will clear out of the area
briefly on Sunday, but another broad area of wildfire smoke
pivots through Sunday evening into Monday per the HRRR near
surface smoke field. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for
both MN & WI counties through Monday morning.

Sunday afternoon will present a slight chance for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop along a weak surface boundary that moves
through. Storms shouldn`t present much impact outside of a brief
shower & a few rumbles of thunder. Wildfire smoke should depart
by Tuesday for those hoping for better air quality. A better
chance of a more widespread precipitation event arrives late
Tuesday through Wednesday night. Guidance highlights a potent
shortwave along the international border on Tuesday & treks
eastward through Thursday. Increasing signal for a broad area of
0.50"+ of rain across the Upper Mississippi valley region by
the end of the work week. We will dry out with a surface high
pressure overhead Thursday & Friday that should lead to a
stretch of cooler than normal temperatures (think highs in the
70s). Temperatures return to normal next weekend with another
chance for thunderstorms & showers on Saturday.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Main issue through this duration will be the continued MVFR-
range visibility due to near-surface smoke from Canadian
wildfires. The smoke will remain in place overnight through late
Sunday morning, then a break from it looks to come Sunday
afternoon, allowing visibilities to climb over 5sm. Similar to
this afternoon, Sunday afternoon will also have FEW-SCT mid-
level cumulus coverage. There is a small chance of SHRA/TSRA
Sunday afternoon-evening over southern-eastern MN into western
WI but chances are too low to include at this point, and timing
is mainly after 00z tomorrow evening. Winds will back from W/NW
at initialization to SW tonight into tomorrow. Speeds drop below
10kts this evening through sunrise then will increase to around
10kts during the day Sunday.

KMSP...Canadian wildfire smoke will maintain degraded visibility
through late Sunday morning, mainly in the MVFR range.
Improvement to VFR looks likely from Sunday afternoon onward.
There is a non-zero chance of isolated showers/t-storms
impacting MSP after 00z tomorrow afternoon but chances are too
low to mention in the TAF at this point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
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&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC