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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KMPX 050449 AAB
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1049 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Benign weather will persist through the short term period. Dry
northwest upper flow will continue as the surface high centered just
to our east remains nearly stationary. We`ll see some occasional
mid/high clouds and perhaps some patchy fog tonight, but otherwise it
will be a continuation of mild temperatures and dry weather.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

The high amplitude upper ridge to our west will broaden as it shifts
east into our area over the weekend and into the first half of next
week. Not much has changed in the overall forecast expectations,
other than a slowing down (and weakening) of the storm system that
has been advertised for the upper Midwest during the middle part of
the week. The preponderance of guidance still brings a system through
the area, but not looks to be in the Wednesday/Wednesday night time
frame and not as strong as previous solutions suggested. It still
looks to cool down for the end of the week behind this system, and
the GEFS and EPS agree on this general evolution of things. The main
forecast concern is with how warm temperatures will get in the Sunday
to Wednesday time frame. Continued to go above guidance, consistent
with what we`ve seen in terms of the cold bias with most of the
guidance, and stuck close to the NBM`s 75th percentile for highs (and
nudging lows up a bit, particularly in the metro area). The new
forecast has record temperatures indicated for highs on Tuesday.
There could be records on the other days, but Tuesday`s records are
"cool" in comparison, so they are the most attainable. Pushed the
arrival of PoPs back given the slower evolution of things, and now
include chance PoPs Tuesday night through Wednesday as the upper
trough and associated surface low work into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

VFR conditions and light easterly or calm winds through the period.
Some mid level clouds tonight.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 15G30 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Borghoff