Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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403 FXUS63 KMPX 130345 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1045 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Air Quality Advisory for Western WI until 10 AM Monday and Air Quality Alert for all of Minnesota until 12 PM Monday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon across southern MN. A few storms could contain gusty winds and potentially sub-severe hail. - A few chances for showers and storms later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Turning out to be a summer sampler as current temperature observations reporting low to mid 80s, even isolated upper 80s for parts of central/southern MN and western WI. These warm temps will not reside long as a cold front continues to make its way from the NW to the SE across Minnesota this afternoon. This frontal boundary is well-defined on visible satellite as a stratocu field stretches from the Twin Ports down past Sioux Falls, SD. Directly behind this front, Canadian wildfire smoke has reached much of northern MN and will continue to make its way southeast. Just ahead of this frontal boundary across south-central MN, an area of more agitated cu has initiated into showers and thunderstorms. Although severe storms are not expected, today`s storm environment favors mainly gusty winds given inverted-V forecast soundings coupled with steep low-level lapse rates of 9 deg C/km. As for the wild fire smoke, air quality is expected to be impacted the most this evening through late tonight (for about 6-8 hours). Then air quality levels will improve slightly to the orange category early tomorrow morning. Thus, through collaboration with the MPCA and the WI DNR, Air quality headlines have been issued for western WI through 10 AM Monday and central and southern MN through 12 PM Monday. The start of the work week will be beautiful thanks to elongated ridging to our west with low pressure across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Northeasterly flow will help keep temperatures in the low-70s with mostly clear skies and potential some patchy remnants of wild fire smoke. As mentioned in the previous discussion the latter half of next week looks to bring our next chances of rainfall. A couple of shortwaves out ahead of a developing trough over the west-central CONUS are progged to track across MN/WI Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing for this period of rainfall continues to remain weak amongst forecast soundings therefore continued mentions of mainly rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible during this time. Forecasted highs will warm back up to near 80 degrees by Friday before another system proceeds through by next weekend. Forecasted QPF amounts will be advertised once ensemble membership confidence increases. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Continued VFR/MVFR smoke overnight clearing Monday morning to early afternoon. Outside of the smoke few aviation impacts over the next day. Light winds and clear skies overall, just a few high clouds possible. KMSP... Continued MVFR expected overnight with the smoke. This should clear Monday morning and then light northerly winds and VFR for the rest of the day. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NE 10-15 kts. WED...VFR/MVFR, chc PM -SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts. THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...NDC