361
FXUS64 KMRX 071131
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
731 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 728 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected through Friday with daytime highs rising
  well into the 70s and 80s.

- Tropical development is expected in the Gulf, leading to a
  return of rain and potential mountain winds this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Currently, troughing is centered to our east with a jet stream to
our south. Surface high pressure is also centered just to our east.
Tropical Depression 9 is also just east of Mexico. This will
continue to promote dry and seasonally cool temperatures into the
morning. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s to low 80s through
the day as eastward progression of high pressure increases southerly
flow. Based on the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast,
T.D. 9 is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaias and
track northeast into the central Gulf through the day. By Thursday,
height rises are expected as troughing lifts to the northeast,
promoting even warmer temperatures well into the 80s. It is during
this time, hurricane strength is forecast by the NHC and model
guidance, along with a more northerly shift in the track. Heading
into Friday, hurricane strength is still anticipated with a landfall
near or east of New Orleans by Friday night. With the upper jet
remaining just to the north, increasing shear has been noted, adding
to weakening but an increase in track speed. Locally, warm and dry
conditions will remain with a shift to northeasterly winds for
Friday.

The weekend will be when our region sees impacts from the remnants
of the tropical system as a track to our west is forecast on
Saturday. At this time range, there is still considerable
uncertainty in the track and degree of weakening due to shear.
However, the most likely impact in our area will be the first
potential mountain wave event of the season. With high pressure to
our northeast, a strong MSLP gradient is likely, along with
strong southeasterly 850mb winds. While rain is expected with this
system, a track of this nature would certainly limit totals while
potentially producing warning-level winds in the mountains and
foothills Saturday night. It should be noted that some guidance
forecast a more easterly and/or weaker track, which would limit
mountain wave potential. Regardless, rainfall chances and overall
impacts will decrease by Sunday into early next week as the
remnants dissipate and move away from the region. Based on current
trends, similar messaging will be maintained in the HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Comparative to earlier HREF probabilities, fog and low cloud threat
has underperformed at TYS so have omitted that tempo with the 12Z
TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions among mostly clear skies and light
winds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  57  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  56  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  54  80  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KRS