Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
704 FXUS64 KMRX 232342 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 642 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 - Tonight will remain dry with seasonally cool temperatures. - A significant winter storm will impact the region, primarily Saturday PM through Saturday night. All types of precipitation (rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow) are expected. - The heaviest snow and sleet accumulations (around 3 inches or locally higher) are most likely along the Tennessee/Kentucky state line and into southwest Virginia. The heaviest ice accumulations (over 0.25 inches) are most likely along the Cumberland Plateau/southern plateau, central and northeast East Tennessee, and just north of Interstate 40/81. Snow accumulations will be more limited further south with ice accumulations more uncertain along the foothills and southern Valley. - High winds expected across the foothills of the mountains and ridge tops on Saturday night into Sunday. - Extreme cold temperatures are expected Monday into Tuesday with highs well below freezing and overnight lows approaching or falling below 0. Lower wind chills are expected. && .UPDATE... Issued at 919 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 We are upgrading the Winter Storm Watch this morning. An Ice Storm Warning will now be in effect for SW NC and areas of southeast and central East Tennessee generally along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor and along and south of the Interstate 40 corridor. Significant ice accretion is expected for these areas with most locations receiving 0.25 to 0.5 inch of ice. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for northern portions of East Tennessee through SW VA where a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected. The foothills of the mountains will see significant downslope winds and warming which will limit ice accretion in these areas, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. Ice accretion for the advisory area will be mostly 0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice with locally higher amounts further into the valley away from the mountain foothills. In addition, we have added a High Wind Warning for the foothills of the mountains. A 50+ kt LLJ is forecast to be across the area on Saturday night and Sunday. With strong ducting and stable air, mountain wave winds are expected in the immediate vicinity of the mountains. Windy conditions may exacerbate power outage and tree damage concerns across portions of the southern Cumberland Plateau, Lookout Mountain, Signal Mountain, Mowbray Mountain, and any higher ridgetops within the Ice Storm Warning on Saturday night as wind gusts across ridgetops increase to 30 to 40 mph with one-half inch of ice coating surfaces. JB && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Troughing across the Eastern CONUS will continue to result in cooler than normal conditions into Saturday. Ahead of an approaching system, southwest flow increases aloft with isentropic lift. Clouds increase tonight with precipitation beginning by Saturday afternoon. Virga is likely ahead of actual precipitation at the surface because of the very dry, cold air near the surface. By Saturday afternoon, precipitation is forecast to be making it to the surface across the entire region with most areas wet bulbing below freezing. This will result in an onset of sleet/snow generally north of Interstate 40 with freezing rain south of Interstate 40. As the warm nose aloft continues to increase, the freezing rain will spread northward across most of the area. This will result in significant accumulations of a wintry mix and ice across the area. Lighter ice accumulation is expected across the western slopes of the Appalachians due to downslope warming. Please see the Winter Storm Warning, Ice Storm Warning, and Winter Weather Advisory for details. Hazardous travel is expected Saturday evening through Sunday morning. With a strong pressure gradient and 50+ kt LLJ increasing on Saturday night through Sunday, mountain wave high winds are becoming increasingly likely for the higher elevations of the western foothills of the Appalachians. We will also likely see some breezy conditions across the southern plateau and higher elevations ridge tops, when combined with ice accumulations within the Ice Storm Warning area, will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages. We become warm sectored across the entire area on Sunday afternoon with all areas warming up above freezing. This will result in all rain across the region by Sunday afternoon, and this will also likely help melt some of the ice and wintry mix accumulation. Colder air returns quickly on Sunday night with black ice being a hazardous across the entire region by Monday morning as temperatures drop into the teens. We remain cold this week with low temperatures in the single digits and near zero by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees below normal. While temperatures "warm" slightly mid-week and temperatures try to get above freezing on Wednesday, another cold front passes across the region with a reinforcing bout of cold air returning late next week. Frigid arctic air will be the norm during the upcoming week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected to continue overnight tonight and into Saturday morning. Northeasterly winds and increasing clouds between 5,000 and 15,000 feet are expected. Heading throughout the day, precipitation will increase, especially in the afternoon hours. Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, is expected initially, but then a transition to sleet and then freezing rain will occur. Reductions to MVFR or less are expected, especially at CHA and TYS. The same is expected at TRI but likely after the end of the TAF period. Also, strong winds a few thousand feet above the ground will lead to strong LLWS conditions. This was included only at CHA for the time being because of the current timing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 27 38 30 45 / 10 80 100 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 24 36 30 47 / 0 90 100 100 Oak Ridge, TN 22 34 27 44 / 10 90 100 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 19 36 27 45 / 0 80 100 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Ice Storm Warning from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Saturday to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton- Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Rhea-Roane- Sequatchie. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Morgan- Scott TN-Sullivan-Union. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk- Johnson-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter- Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi-Washington TN-West Polk. High Wind Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise. && $$ DISCUSSION...JB AVIATION...BW