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000
FXUS64 KMRX 271929
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
329 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)...

Key Messages:

1. Rain showers and gusty gradient winds diminish tonight as
associated surface low and cold front continue to shift eastward.

2. Dry conditions Saturday with near normal temperatures.

Discussion:

Current radar and satellite imagery depict continued scattered
showers across the eastern half of the forecast area late this
afternoon in association with a weak surface cold front draped
across the region. Additionally, the occasional lightning strike has
been observed. Recent SPC Mesoanalysis data suggests surface based
CAPE upwards of 1000 J/kg and low level lapse rates in excess of 7
C/km. While not expecting widespread lightning the remainder of the
evening, this environment could support some sparse lightning and
thunder over the next few hours as has been observed. Some locally
higher wind gusts are possible with any relatively stronger shower
as well.

As the parent low and front continue to shift eastward this
evening/tonight, precipitation and the stronger gradient winds will
begin to diminish area wide, however, wrap around moisture will
likely linger some cloud cover across the area into Saturday,
especially in more northeastern portions of the CWA. As weak ridging
aloft and surface high pressure begin to build in from the west
tomorrow, the area will break free from the recent wet pattern.
Temperatures will generally be near normal for this time of the
year, perhaps a few degrees cooler due to the aforementioned cloud
cover.

KS

LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday Night)...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend and into early next
week.

2. Afternoon rain chances will be low through mid week with better
rain/storm chances Thursday through Friday.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Southeast through
midweek. At the surface, an extension from the Bermuda-Azores high
will be over the Southeast. Sunday and Monday will be dry with
mostly sunny skies with warm temps with highs slightly above normal
in the mid to upper 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons will have
a slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with
abundant low level moisture and surface heating present. Temps will
be above normal Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s
and near 90 in the Tennessee Valley.

Late in the workweek, a broad trough will dip into the Ohio Valley.
A slow moving boundary will sag into the Tennessee Valley Thursday
into Friday increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
particularly Thursday afternoon. This weak boundary will likely
bring scattered showers and thunderstorms again on Friday.

McD

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Radar imagery depicts scattered showers along and behind a surface
boundary departing the region to the east. Have kept vcsh
mentioned in TRI/TYS over the next few hours for this reason,
however, CHA looks to be in the clear. Overall, expect VFR
conditions at all sites throughout the 18z period. The one
exception will be MVFR cigs at TRI come early Saturday morning
into the early afternoon. Will monitor radar trends
for any showers approaching terminals over the next few hours but
did not have the confidence to include any prevailing showers
given the scattered nature. If a shower were to impact a terminal,
some reduced vis could be possible as some have been producing
some moderate precip.

KS


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             58  80  60  87  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  58  79  58  86  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  78  58  86  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  75  54  85  59 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$