Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 141914 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 314 PM EDT Wed Mar 14 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Thursday)... Upper troughing continues to slide atop the eastern seaboard while drier ridging builds westward atop the Rockies/Plains states this afternoon. Upper confluence atop the lower MS valley continues to support surface high pressure and thus predominate nly/nwly flow across east TN, southwest VA, and extreme southwest NC. Mostly sunny skies have allowed for earlier snowfall accumulation to melt for the most part, with some lingering snowpack across the higher peaks/ridgetops along the TN NC/VA borders. Wouldn`t be suprised if patchy black ice is present on some roadways tonight with lows in the 20s/30s, but will hold off on an SPS for now given further melting/drying to occur through the remainder of the day. As for Thursday, high pressure to the south will slide eastward along the I10 corridor into west FL, thus promoting backed swly flow up the TN valley. The airmass will be dry, therefore skies are fcst to remain mostly sunny allowing temperatures to reach near normal levels. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)... The period will open with a high pressure system over the western Great Lakes region with a ridge axis extending SW toward the Appalachians. A warm front will extend from a low pressure system in the Midwest along the TN/KY border. The building ridge will likely push this front southward Friday morning, which will lead to a sharp N-S temperature difference across the area, from upper 60s south to upper 40s north. Weak isentropic lift will produce broken/overcast cloud cover and slight to low chance PoPs for northern sections. Later in the day, the eastward progression of the Midwst low will push the front northward, with increasing theta-e advection bringing light showers Friday night. Dry advection in the midlevels should reduce rain chances and cloud cover through Saturday, and with a SW low level flow continuing, highs may reach the 60s to lower 70s in most of the TN Valley. A weak cold front moves through Saturday night, and high pressure will settle in from the north on Sunday. An active pattern continues into early next week as another Midwest low will approach the area, pushing the stalled front to our south back northward on Monday. This surface low and the upper trough are stronger than the previous system. Will have chance PoPs in the Monday/Monday night time frame for the entire area, with chance PoPs north Tuesday with the passage of the closed upper low across the Ohio Valley. Colder temps will make a comeback behind this system on Wednesday, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 34 63 43 68 / 0 0 0 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 61 43 58 / 0 0 0 30 Oak Ridge, TN 31 61 43 57 / 0 0 10 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 26 57 37 48 / 0 0 10 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ CDG/DGS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.