Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 151910 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Friday)... Shortwave upper ridging continues to dominate the pattern across the east/central CONUS this afternoon, thus reinforcing a sfc anticyclone centered over the FL panhandle. Mid/upper moisture associated with the exiting trough axis to the north continues to support a few patchy cirrus across portions of extreme NE TN and SW VA, all amidst some llv cu and gusty swly flow. Elsewhere, modest swly flow dominates across the TN valley this afternoon, with low end gusting observed as well. The previous wind advisory along the high terrain remains intact, and will prevail through 8PM. Overnight a backdoor frontal axis will sag southward into SW VA and the TN valley region with modest llv moisture to accompany. With that, expecting clear skies to give way to increasing and lowering cigs from north. With that, mostly cloudy skies will highlight the fcst through much of the day on Friday, with sky cover being less dense further south toward CHA. As for pops, the fcst is dry regionwide through much of the period, with the exception of slight chances for showers along the central/northern mtns given improved llv moisture and weak wly upsloping. Also, did include increasing pop trends Friday afternoon from the west as a warm/moist airmass advects in. Given increasing sky cover from the north, temperatures tonight are fcst to remain near or slightly above normal levels, while highs on Friday top out just shy of normal northward and above normal southward. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)... Run-to-run consistency of the models seems to be rather poor of late, which lowers confidence through the long term period. It will be an active period, with some PoPs in the forecast for most periods as a series of troughs and ridges move across the region. A warm front will be across northern sections of the area to open the period, with a strengthening SW flow pushing it northward through the night. Showers will increase through the night with increasing warm advection and elevated instability, and a slight chance of thunder will continue to be mentioned for southern sections. Midlevel drying will lower rain chances Saturday morning, but we will remain in the warm sector through the day with partial clearing, allowing temps to rise into the upper 60s and 70s for most spots. A weak surface cold front and a midlevel shortwave trough will drop SE from KY, bringing showers to northern parts of the area in the late afternoon/evening. Sunday looks to be the best bet for a dry day through the period as a ridge through the mid and upper levels builds over the area, with a weak surface high to our north. Weak cold advection behind the front will allow Sunday`s highs to reach the 60s in most spots to around 70 south. A closed low tracking east across the Plains and Ozarks will bring the front to our south northward on Sunday night, then move into our area Monday. Likely PoPs and a slight chance of thunderstorms will return with the front and continue Monday night as the upper low tracks overhead. Wednesday and Thursday will see a return of colder temperatures as a deep trough becomes positioned over the east coast, keeping our area in a NW flow pattern, with a chance of rain or snow showers in northern sections and the mountains. $$
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 67 55 75 / 10 30 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 43 62 50 73 / 10 30 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 42 62 50 73 / 10 30 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 39 53 42 67 / 10 10 80 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...None. && $$ CDG/DGS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.