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000
FXUS64 KMRX 260130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
930 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 926 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Radar showing some light returns to our southwest but obs not
showing much reaching the ground so far and there is still
significant dry low level air over our region, so the low PoPs
mainly southwest zones that are in place for tonight look
reasonable. Overall the forecast looks to be in decent shape so
just some minor tweaks mainly to temps and dew points with this
update.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Message:

Slight chance of light rain Friday morning/afternoon.

Discussion:

Currently a pleasant afternoon is shaping up as the southern
Appalachian region sits under surface high pressure and incoming
ridging from the west in the mid/upper levels. Winds are generally
calm or slightly out of the north at the surface increasing in speed
as you go up in elevation, which is helping to keep cooler air
flowing into the region.

We will see a increase in cloud coverage later this afternoon and
evening as weak front begins to push into the area. The increase in
clouds will continue into tomorrow when eventually some weak showers
may develop along the boundary as it pushes through our area. With
how weak the signatures are for this system CAMs are struggling with
where exactly showers may occur, especially once you get to
Interstate 40 and northward. Will continue with the lower end
precipitation chances on Friday morning/afternoon with the best
chances to see light rain or drizzle south of I-40... However people
that do see rain wont get that much... Enough to get your car wet,
but not clean it off. Even with the more cloudy skies and rain
chances, temperatures on Friday will be similar to today as winds
turn more southerly with the boundary drawing up warmer air from the
Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.LONG TERM...

Key Messages:

1. Breezy southwesterly winds Friday night and Saturday. Otherwise,
dry and warm conditions forecast over the weekend.

2. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Eastern U.S. through the
weekend. At the surface, a couple of lows will move through the
Great Plains and into the Midwest supported by closed lows aloft.
The cold fronts with these two systems will remain to the west of
the Mississippi River through the weekend. The warm front ahead of
this system will bring low chances for rain in Northeast Tennessee
Friday night. Southwesterly flow will increase Friday and Friday
night bringing WAA.

Saturday and Sunday look dry with the cold front from the
aforementioned system stalling and weakening near the Mississippi
River. Ridging and high pressure will be over the Southeast and our
region. Breezy southerly winds will increase Friday night and
Saturday. Gusts may be borderline advisory criteria (40 mph) Friday
night in the higher elevations and foothills of the East Tennessee
Mountains with a wind direction favorable for downslope wind
enhancement. Elsewhere, wind gusts will likely top out around 25 to
30 mph mainly in the Southern Tennessee Valley and Cumberland
Plateau.

Monday and Tuesday, a low will be moving through the Great Lakes
into Canada. This may not be a clean frontal passage for our area
but a shortwave will help bring showers and storms to the region
Monday night and Tuesday. Severe potential looks low at the moment
but will continue to monitor this system development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Will see a few mainly light showers around for several hours,
first at CHA later tonight, then TYS Fri morning, and finally
arriving at TRI closer to the end of the period. However,
probability of significant precipitation looks fairly low at any
given site so will only include VCSH all sites for now. VFR
conditions look very likely for the period all sites, and light
winds overnight will become south to southeast closer to 10 kts
late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             56  79  63  80 /  20  20   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  50  75  61  78 /  10  30   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       50  75  61  79 /  10  30   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              46  73  56  75 /   0  30  10  10
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...