123
FXUS65 KMSO 051824
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1224 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Showers, isolated thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures
   return this weekend.

-  Increasing potential for widespread precipitation by Wednesday
   and Thursday next week with a closed low pressure system.

As an upper level trough approaches the region today from the
west, increasing breezy conditions are anticipated. The
combination of breezy and dry conditions will create elevated fire
weather concerns across southwest Montana today and Saturday, so
please exercise extreme caution with any open flames or ignition
sources.

A cold front will move through the region on Saturday, dropping
temperatures by about ten degrees and bringing localized showers
and thunderstorms, primarily to northwest Montana and along the
Continental Divide. Sunday will feature cooler weather and more
widespread but light rain, with minor snow accumulations possible
in the mountains above 5,500 feet, particularly south of
Interstate 90. For those with sensitive plants or gardens, frost
potential develops Sunday and Monday mornings as drier air builds
over the region and skies begin to clear. Monday looks like the
more widespread day for frost in the lower valleys of western
Montana and higher valleys of north central Idaho. However, some
frost is also possible across northwest Montana valleys Sunday
morning.

By mid-to-late next week, a large weather system is expected to bring
significant and widespread precipitation across western Montana and
north central Idaho. Ahead of this system, thunderstorms may
become more numerous across the region, especially by Tuesday.
Most locations have a high probability (60 to 80 percent chance)
of receiving over half an inch of rain between Wednesday and
Friday. While less likely, this system has a 10 to 20 percent
chance of tapping into deeper moisture, potentially bringing one
to two inches (or possibly more!) of rain along the Continental
Divide. If these heavier amounts materialize, localized flooding
could become a concern, especially in recently saturated areas
such as the Mission Mountains and surrounding valleys.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will generally prevail today, though an
approaching upper-level trough will induce strengthening surface
winds and breezy afternoon conditions across all airfields, with
gusts up to 20 kts. A cold front sweeping through on Saturday will
introduce localized showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily
impacting routes across northwest Montana and along the
Continental Divide in southwest Montana, which will lead to brief
periods of MVFR conditions and localized mountain obscurations.
Flight conditions will further deteriorate on Sunday as widespread
light precipitation develops and freezing levels lower to near
5,500 feet MSL, resulting in more extensive mountain obscurations
and scattered MVFR ceilings, particularly for higher terrain and
passes south of the I-90 corridor.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$