-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
361
FXUS66 KMTR 022108
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
208 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

 - Breezy northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening.

 - Night and morning low clouds clearing to the coast each
   afternoon remains.

 - Near normal temperatures with a slightly below normal
   temperatures Thu & Fri.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025
(This evening through Thursday)

Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low tracking into
southern CA this afternoon. Behind it, weak upper level ridge has
taken it`s place. This will gradually be pushed to our east and
southeast by Thursday as the next upper level trough advances
towards the PacNW and northern CA. In addition to our routine
nighttime/morning clouds that clear to the coast each afternoon, we
will have slightly cooler high temperatures in the afternoon. We
will also be monitoring elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions for Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mountains. Wind gusts
look to be around 25-40 mph higher terrain, and inland gaps/passes,
and for the aforementioned mountains RH values could fall to about
15-45% and recovering to 30-50% for the higher points of elevation.
The stronger wind gusts, of 25-40 mph, will also be observed over
the water and coastal areas.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

Upper level troughing looks to hold through the weekend, leading to
seasonably cool temperatures on the 4th. Expect the rinse and repeat
forecast in terms the stratus creeping in each night and then
receding to the coast each afternoon. Temperatures gradually become
seasonal over the weekend, putting us closer to the seasonal
averages.

A quick peak into next week shows we could see a pattern change
beginning around Wednesday. Cluster analysis shows high pressure
over the southwest building, which should kick off a warming
trend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Stratus is gradually mixing out across the East Bay and the Salinas
Valley this morning, expected to retreat to the immediate coast by
the afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will develop in the afternoon
and evening with the strongest gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Stratus
will return to most of the terminals overnight, with the interior
remaining clear. Moderate to high confidence that SJC remains clear
overnight. LLWS concerns are possible overnight in the North Bay and
San Mateo Peninsula with strong winds aloft decoupled from light
surface breezes. Beyond the 24-hour TAF period, breezy onshore flow
should return Thursday afternoon, with stronger winds across the
region.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions at the terminal, with breezy and
gusty northwest winds developing this afternoon. Gusts will reach
around 22-25 kt. A low to moderate confidence for stratus developing
at the terminal tonight. High resolution models differ on stratus
coverage through the Golden Gate, to say nothing of the terminal
area, and those models that bring stratus into the SF Bay bring the
stratus deck just on the north edge of the terminal area. Will keep
the overnight ceilings in the TAF for now, but may amend if further
model guidance or observations make it less likely. Gusty northwest
winds return Thursday afternoon, monitoring the possibility for
gusts at or above 35 kt near the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Lower confidence in stratus impacts
along the approach path. Otherwise similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions at SNS through the day.
Moderate confidence that MRY remains socked in through the day, with
the greatest probability of SCT at the terminal around now through
02Z. Breezy northwest winds will develop this afternoon, with
stratus expanding back to SNS this evening. Clearing should return
Thursday morning with a moderate confidence that MRY scatters out by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1005 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

A fresh to strong northwesterly breeze and rough seas will
continue through Thursday before improving late week. Gale force
gusts will be likely across portions of the waters today and again
on Thursday. A low-amplitude long period southerly swell will
arrive Thursday and persist through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of
     Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-
     SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...RGass

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea