


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --361 FXUS66 KMTR 022108 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 208 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES...-- Changed Discussion --Updated at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Breezy northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening. - Night and morning low clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon remains. - Near normal temperatures with a slightly below normal temperatures Thu & Fri.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low tracking into southern CA this afternoon. Behind it, weak upper level ridge has taken it`s place. This will gradually be pushed to our east and southeast by Thursday as the next upper level trough advances towards the PacNW and northern CA. In addition to our routine nighttime/morning clouds that clear to the coast each afternoon, we will have slightly cooler high temperatures in the afternoon. We will also be monitoring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mountains. Wind gusts look to be around 25-40 mph higher terrain, and inland gaps/passes, and for the aforementioned mountains RH values could fall to about 15-45% and recovering to 30-50% for the higher points of elevation. The stronger wind gusts, of 25-40 mph, will also be observed over the water and coastal areas.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 207 PM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Upper level troughing looks to hold through the weekend, leading to seasonably cool temperatures on the 4th. Expect the rinse and repeat forecast in terms the stratus creeping in each night and then receding to the coast each afternoon. Temperatures gradually become seasonal over the weekend, putting us closer to the seasonal averages. A quick peak into next week shows we could see a pattern change beginning around Wednesday. Cluster analysis shows high pressure over the southwest building, which should kick off a warming trend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Stratus is gradually mixing out across the East Bay and the Salinas Valley this morning, expected to retreat to the immediate coast by the afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will develop in the afternoon and evening with the strongest gusts around 15 to 20 knots. Stratus will return to most of the terminals overnight, with the interior remaining clear. Moderate to high confidence that SJC remains clear overnight. LLWS concerns are possible overnight in the North Bay and San Mateo Peninsula with strong winds aloft decoupled from light surface breezes. Beyond the 24-hour TAF period, breezy onshore flow should return Thursday afternoon, with stronger winds across the region. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions at the terminal, with breezy and gusty northwest winds developing this afternoon. Gusts will reach around 22-25 kt. A low to moderate confidence for stratus developing at the terminal tonight. High resolution models differ on stratus coverage through the Golden Gate, to say nothing of the terminal area, and those models that bring stratus into the SF Bay bring the stratus deck just on the north edge of the terminal area. Will keep the overnight ceilings in the TAF for now, but may amend if further model guidance or observations make it less likely. Gusty northwest winds return Thursday afternoon, monitoring the possibility for gusts at or above 35 kt near the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Lower confidence in stratus impacts along the approach path. Otherwise similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions at SNS through the day. Moderate confidence that MRY remains socked in through the day, with the greatest probability of SCT at the terminal around now through 02Z. Breezy northwest winds will develop this afternoon, with stratus expanding back to SNS this evening. Clearing should return Thursday morning with a moderate confidence that MRY scatters out by the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1005 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A fresh to strong northwesterly breeze and rough seas will continue through Thursday before improving late week. Gale force gusts will be likely across portions of the waters today and again on Thursday. A low-amplitude long period southerly swell will arrive Thursday and persist through Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...DialH MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea