Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 261143 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 743 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves across New England today. Another low will move through on Friday. A cold frontal passage occurs late Saturday, cooling things down for Sunday and Monday. A warming trend will then occur for the first few days of May. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The fcst is on track. Upper shortwave passes across New England, and sfc low moves to the north. Westerly winds behind this low will prevail, with a few gusts to 20 to 25 mph possible during the day. Northern locations may see a few more clouds due to upper shortwave proximity. Based on forecast profiles, and mixing depth, expect highs in the mid to upper 60s, with a few 70s possible. In some cases, these forecast temps are slightly higher than a MOS blend. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Weak ridge briefly builds ahead of next southern stream shortwave, and downstream northern stream shortwave. Mainly clear skies initially tonight will give way to increasing high level clouds. Sfc high builds, allowing for light winds. Temperatures tonight should range from the lower 40s interior to the lower 50s across NYC metro. Next low pressure approaches from the southwest ahead of approaching trough, and another round of rain is expected from mid/late morning through the remainder of the day. Onshore flow ahead of the low will result in cooler temps in the mid 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The rain will taper off Fri ngt with the models in good agreement. A blend was used for the various data fields. A cold front then approaches for Sat. The trend is slower with the shrtwv coming down from Canada. As a result, the fropa looks to take place Sat ngt, with a slower progression of the upr trof on Sun. There should be a 6-12 hour window of dry wx after the Fri ngt rain and ahead of the cold front. Right now this looks to be Sat mrng. However, this far out a blended approach was used to compensate for potential timing changes. End result is low chcs Sat mrng. These could be reduced in subsequent fcsts as confidence increases. Some sct shwrs look to occur invof the front. With the timing attm lining up with the overnight, llvl instability will be weaker. With the upr low and cold pool lagging behind on Sun, extensive cu development is likely, leading to bkn-ovc skies. Lake moisture should enhance the cloud cover across the interior. The modeling now indicates significant cloud cover hanging in Sun ngt, reducing the low temp potential. Highs on Sun will be 5-10 degrees blw avg, so the clouds may inhibit a widespread frost/freeze situation at ngt. Heights will begin to increase on Mon, allowing for highs to approach normal lvls. Ridging then develops between a Pacific trof and the upr low exiting the Northeast. This will produce a warming trend thru at least Wed, bringing the 70s and low 80s to the area. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... low pressure tracks into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday evening. Any lingering LIFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will lift between 12-13Z. Otherwise, VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds becoming W-NW increasing to 10-15 kt during the morning push. Wind gusts of 15-25kt develop after 12Z. Winds back to the WSW-SW at KJFK and KISP this afternoon, remaining W to WNW elsewhere. Wind gusts should abate late Thursday afternoon/early Thursday evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Wind gusts 20-25 kt expected after 14Z. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Wind gusts up to 20 kt expected after 14Z. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Wind gusts up to 20 kt expected after 14Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Wind gusts up to 20 kt expected after 14Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Wind gusts up to 20 kt expected after 14Z. KISP TAF Comments: Wind gusts 20-25 kt expected after 14Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night...VFR. .Friday...MVFR or lower possible in rain. .Friday night-Saturday night. MVFR possible in isolated- scattered showers, otherwise VFR. .Sunday-Monday...VFR. W-NW winds G15-25KT possible. && .MARINE... The dense fog advy will be allowed to expire as drier air advects into the region this mrng. Westerly winds develop today, and a few gusts could approach 25 kt on the outer ocean waters. Winds diminish tonight as high pressure briefly builds. Them, another area of low pressure approaches Friday, resulting in another round of rain. Easterly winds increase, but should remain below SCA thresholds or 25 kt. Will however extend the SCA for the ocean waters based on elevated seas through Friday. Non ocean waters will remain under 2 ft, with choppy conditions across the extreme eastern portion of LI Sound. On the protected waters, winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls Sat- Tue. On the ocean, passing low pres and a cold frontal passage will keep seas at sca lvls Sat, with mrgnl sca seas on Sun. Winds and seas blw sca lvls Mon and Tue. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather returns today. QPF 1/4 to 3/4 inch possible Friday with a quick moving low. No hydrologic issues anticipated. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated Sat-Wed. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-340- 345-350-353. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...CB MARINE...JMC/PW HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.