Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 060033 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 833 PM EDT Fri Aug 5 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough remains over the area into early next week with Bermuda high pressure offshore. A cold front will begin to approach on Tuesday, enter the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, and may pass slowly southeast on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast is on track this hour and only minor adjustments made to the gridded database. Outflow boundaries continue to initiate shallow convection across northeast NJ. Any activity is expected to remain isolated in nature, and should wane into the overnight as instability decreases. A surface trough remains across southern New England into northeastern New Jersey as Bermuda high pressure remains offshore, keeping a warm and humid airmass across the region. A weak upper shortwave and embedded convective vort maxs, along with surface instability where providing lift for convective activity to develop. A warm airmass remains tonight, and mainly followed the deterministic guidance for overnight lows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The surface trough will remain in the vicinity Saturday, with the warm and humid airmass remaining in place. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees lower than Friday`s, and used the deterministic guidance for highs, as cloud cover from convective debris remains across the area. As a result the combination of high temperatures and dew points will most likely keep heat indices just below 95, and will hold off on extending the heat advisory at this time. However, if clouds do clear early or more than forecast, heat indices may be around 95. Convection will be possible, however, instability and CAPE will be lower than Friday, and will keep probabilities at chance across the inland areas. Then with any convection, with the loss of daytime heating convection weakens into the overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term period starts off hot and unsettled. A surface trough remains near or over the area Sunday, although it continues to gradually weaken. There continues to be a chance for storms, mainly during the late morning into the early evening hours The best chances will be across New York City and points north and west. With a tropical air mass still in place, there remains a threat for flash flooding. Highs on Sunday climb into the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s, with heat index values in the middle to upper 90s to 100 in a few spots. The heat and humidity are likely to linger into Monday and possibly into Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance for temperatures. Heat index values are expected to once again middle and upper 90s to near 100 on Monday. The NYC/NE NJ Urban corridor could see HI values between 100-105. The next front should then approach beginning Tuesday, with some uncertainty on whether or not it reaches the area during the day or at night. A slower timing will lead to another day of heat and humidity, as forecast, with still widespread heat index values of 95- 100. A faster timing would lead to more clouds, showers/storms and lower temperatures daytime Tue. The front may then linger nearby the area on Wednesday with potential of it shifting southeast by Thursday. Temperatures should trend back closer to normal, with dewpoints also returning to more comfortable levels by Thu and Friday. Dry weather is expected for Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mainly VFR this afternoon. A weak low pressure trough over the region may allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly for areas N and W of NYC terminals. Some of these storms may make it into the NYC terminals by late afternoon or evening. Brief MVFR to IFR conditions may be possible with this activity, either near the terminals or in the vicinity. Mainly VFR for Saturday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon but coverage is expected to be scattered. W-SW winds 5-10 kt should back SW-S around 10 kt by afternoon, then diminish this evening and become SW overnight. W-SW winds around 10 kt for Saturday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely for timing of showers and thunderstorms. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday night...Any wind gusts subside early. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Brief MVFR possible at times, but mainly VFR. .Sunday-Monday...Chance of mainly afternoon into evening showers/tstms with brief MVFR or lower at times. SW winds G15-20kt afternoon into early evening. .Tuesday-Wednesday...Chance of MVFR or lower with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters tonight through Saturday night. Small craft conditions appear possible on the ocean waters Sunday night and again Mon night into early Tue, with SW winds 15-20 kt helping build seas up to 5 ft during those times. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Isolated convection into this evening will be slow moving with a weak steering flow, and there will be abundant tropical moisture. There is the potential for localized flash flooding in any of these storms. A localized flash flooding threat is possible again Saturday afternoon and evening as deep tropical moisture remains and steering flow is weak. Any thunderstorms that develop on Sunday will once again be capable of producing localized flash flooding.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk is forecast on Saturday with building seas of 3-4 ft @5 seconds and a modest S-SW flow. A moderate rip current risk continues into Sunday with 4 ft seas and the continuation of modest S-SW flow.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/MET NEAR TERM...DBR/MET SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/MET HYDROLOGY...BC/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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