-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
217
FXUS61 KOKX 082317
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Midwest will build towards the region
through Monday. The high then expands into the area and remains
in control through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A quiet, clear night ahead. Lightening flow should allow surface
winds to decouple and lead to conditions quickly cooling off
this evening. Forecast remains on track and previous discussion
follows.

The area remains in a wly flow aloft tngt. Fair wx cu will tend to
dissipate thru this eve with the loss of daytime heating, but more
significant stratus may bleed into the area from the N per the time
heights. The NBM may be a bit underdone with clouds, predicting
basically skc all ngt. With subsidence across the region however,
did not bump cloud cover up attm. Winds should decouple in this
environment, yielding good radiational cooling. Limiting factor
would be clouds. As a result, blended in the cooler MET/MAV
with the NBM, but did not go max cold.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The modeling appears to be triggering convection over lakes Huron,
Ontario, and Erie on Mon with over 1000 J/kg of sbcape per the NAM.
Whether this activity holds together as it approaches the cwa late
aftn into the eve is the main challenge, as the final miles will be
in a downslope environment. Included some slight chances across the
nrn and wrn tier for this activity. With support from the h5 trof
axis, the NBM pops seem too low.

Any shwrs dissipate overnight with weaker lapse rates, passage of
the trof axis, and an influx of dry mid lvl air. Clouds should
decrease as well, and if the timing holds, it should be mainly skc
by sunrise Tue.

For temps, the NBM was followed closely with only some local
adjustments made.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* Extended dry stretch through much of the week and into next
  weekend.

* Warming trend with high temperatures running several degrees above
  normal by mid to late week.

Persistently tranquil, warm, and dry conditions through late week.
Climbing heights to start the period as a trough departs offshore
and deep layer ridging begins to build in from the west. The ridge
amplifies over the Great Lakes by late week, with the region
remaining on the eastern periphery. Surface high pressure centered
over the Midwest on Tuesday begins to translate east by midweek,
likely shifting offshore by late Wednesday, setting up a return
onshore flow late in the week. This will begin to increase moisture
in the column, and coupled with warming temperatures into the 80s,
will lead to several days of toasty mid September weather, with
highs running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. With the onshore flow
developing, cloud cover begins to increase in response as well,
especially toward the end of the work week and the start of next
weekend. Highs by Thursday and Friday are progged in the low to mid
80s for most, with perhaps some upper 80s in the urban NYC metro.
Overnight lows generally fall back into the 60s along the coast, and
50s across the interior. The national blend was largely followed for
this update.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds into the area through tonight. A weak
surface trough passes to the north Monday afternoon.

VFR.

W/NW wind with frequent gusts around 20 kt, and occasionally
20-25 kt continue through this afternoon, with gusts diminishing
and ending by early this evening. Winds back to W/SW Monday,
becoming gusty 15 to 20 kt around midday.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind gust offset may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Mon aftn: VFR. Slight chance of isold eve shwrs northwest of
the NYC terminals.

Tue-Fri: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With high pres S of the waters, winds and waves are expected to
remain blw sca lvls thru Mon. Winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA criteria from Tuesday through late week, as the
pressure gradient remains weak across the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of the week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
There is a moderate risk of rip current devleopment both Monday
and Tuesday with a westerly flow near or just above 10 kt and a
lingering easterly swell of 2-3 ft at 8s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC/DR
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR