Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 061640 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1240 PM EDT Thu Oct 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure moves in today. A series of cold fronts moves through on Friday, with the stronger front moving through late in the day. Strong Canadian high pressure builds to the south for the first half of the weekend. High pressure remains south of the area Saturday night into Sunday night. A weak cold front moves through the region Monday. High returns Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The fcst is on track. Mostly sunny today. Temperatures this afternoon will climb above normal as a light westerly flow becomes southwesterly later this afternoon. Most highs will get into the lower and middle 70s. For tonight mainly clear skies are expected, but with an inversion likely to form at or just below 1kft, look for some radiational fog (mainly patchy fog) to develop in outlying areas based on the RAP and NAM forecast soundings. Temperatures should average a bit above normal with lows mainly in the 50s area wide.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any early fog should quickly dissipate Friday morning. A mild southwest to west flow should allow temperatures to climb above normal once again with lower and middle 70s by the afternoon with plenty of sunshine. The first cold front will move through earlier with just a subtle wind direction change. The stronger cold front moves through for the late afternoon, and by early evening for far eastern sections. This second front will lead to a noticeable airmass change for Friday night and into the weekend. This second front may bring a few sprinkles or a few light showers to the area, especially further inland. The front however will have little moisture to work with, therefore POPs were kept minimal for Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. Breezy conditions take place in the wake of the front for Friday night into Saturday as a much cooler air mass moves in as 5kft temperatures approach 0C. Lows Saturday morning will be in the 40s area wide with a few wind chill readings possibly getting into the middle and upper 30s. Therefore below normal temperatures will continue into the day on Saturday with highs struggling to reach 60, and likely remaining in the upper 50s in most places. This will average around 7 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper longwave trough remains across eastern Canada and the eastern United States Saturday night into Sunday night, then weakens and moves east Monday as a ridge builds in from the west through Wednesday. At the surface high pressure to the south weakens Monday as a weak backdoor cold front pushes through the region. There is little moisture and the front is expected to move through dry. Surface high pressure builds from the north and remains into the middle of the week. Used the NBM guidance for temperatures and probabilities through the extended period. Temperatures start off near normal to slightly below through Monday, and then a gradual warmup begins for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures possibly returning to above seasonal normals b the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure builds across the area this morning and then offshore this afternoon. A cold front approaches on Friday and passes through during the afternoon into early evening hours. VFR. NW winds less than 10 kt, shift to the W/SW around 18-20Z, and then become more southerly late in the afternoon. Winds become SW tonight, and light and variable at the outlying terminals. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Wind shift to the WSW and then S this afternoon may be delayed 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday...VFR. W/SW winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon, becoming NW by evening with gusts 20-25 kt. .Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt. .Sunday-Monday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub SCA conditions take place today with ocean seas falling down to around 3 ft for this afternoon. More of a SW flow develops tonight into Friday preceding an approaching cold front. Just ahead of the front by late Friday afternoon gusts out on the ocean start to approach 20 kts, but sub SCA conditions should prevail through the day. By Friday night small craft conditions will become possible out on the ocean with gusts potentially approaching 25 kts, with more marginal small craft conditions for portions of the non-ocean waters. By Saturday ocean seas should settle in around 3 ft with NW winds gusting to 15 to 20 kt at times. High pressure will be across the forecast waters much of the time Saturday night through Monday night. A weak cold front does move south across the waters Monday. Winds and seas remain below advisory levels Saturday night through Monday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological impacts are anticipated through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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