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841
FXUS61 KOKX 030950
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
550 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the north today and begins to weaken
over the region on Saturday. A cold front then slowly approaches
from the west Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front tracks
through early Monday, stalling south of the region Tuesday. The
boundary returns as a warm front on Wednesday, with an
associated cold front moving through Thursday. A trailing wave
of low pressure may then approach the region from the west late
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is on track. High pressure builds in from the
northeast today. NE winds will continue to advect a moist
airmass with stratus under a subsidence inversion early this
morning. The stratus should erode later this morning, but some
cirrus will be around. Inland areas farthest away from the cool
easterly flow will end up with the warmest temperatures this
afternoon - up around 70. 60s otherwise for most other spots.
Partly to mostly cloudy, but dry conditions for tonight with
lows in the low 50s in the city and 45-50 elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A ridge axis aloft will be right over us during Saturday and slow to
move. It`ll be to our east Sunday morning and continue its slow path
east through Sunday night. This will help keep us dry Saturday
morning as moisture ahead of an approaching cold front runs into the
ridge. Will leave in low chances of a shower west of the Hudson
River for Saturday afternoon as per qpf output for a couple of the
models as well as NBM, but thinking anything that falls will be
relatively brief and light. Rain chances then slowly increase west
to east through Saturday night before showers become likely during
Sunday into Sunday night. Can`t rule out a rumble of thunder Sunday
afternoon and night with some elevated CAPE around. Forecast PWATS
are not too concerning, so no hydrologic impacts are anticipated
with this system. NBM temperatures looked good for the short term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A rather active period next week, though not necessarily a washout,
with a slow moving front nearby and waves of low pressure helping
instigate periodic chances for precipitation into late next week.

Cold front moves through early Monday, leaving weak high pressure to
nose in from the north. The front stalls over the Mid-Atlantic as it
runs into ridging, eventually returning as a warm front late Tuesday
or Wednesday. It`s possible a weak wave of low pressure develops
along the boundary and passes just south of the region as it tracks
offshore Monday night into Tuesday, but global guidance is mixed at
this stage in development and placement of the low. As it appears
now, best chances of seeing any impacts are along the coast and
points south. A relatively quiet afternoon expected Tuesday before
PoPs increase once again Tuesday night as the front attempts to lift
north toward the region. The region likely sits in the warm sector
Wednesday, and soundings hint at convective development ahead of the
approaching cold front that could lead to thunderstorms in parts of
the region Wed afternoon or evening. A brief dry out behind the
fropa before another wave of low pressure attempts to develop as a
shortwave swings east into late week, bringing additional chances of
rain.

Temperatures should average above normal through Thursday, generally
in the 70s most afternoons away from the immediate coastline.
National blended guidance was generally followed for this update,
with some subtle adjustments to cap PoPs and bump max Ts a few
degrees Mon/Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds in through the day.

VFR to start, though MVFR stratus is attempting to work into the
region from east to west early this morning behind a cold frontal
passage. Gradual improvement to VFR thru early to mid afternoon.
Cigs may fall once again into early Sat AM with potential stratus
development.

NE flow has developed behind the front with speeds increasing to
around 10 kt and gusts up to 20 kt by daybreak. These gusts should
persist thru morning push before abating. Winds continue to veer to
the E/SE in the afternoon. SE winds subside less than 10 kt thru
aft/eve push.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

NE gusts up to 20 kt may be more occasional during AM push.

Timing of windshift, and stratus development/dissipation may be off
by a couple of hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low prob of patchy early AM MVFR stratus.
Slight chance of showers and MVFR conditions in the afternoon,
increasing chances overnight.

Sunday...Likely showers, with MVFR or lower conditions. ESE winds
G15-20kt.

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NE winds around 15kt with perhaps a few gusts up to 25kt expected
this morning before cold advection and the pressure gradient lessens
this afternoon. Seas should build up to around 4ft this afternoon
into evening before subsiding overnight. Relatively tranquil
conditions then continue through Saturday night. Winds then increase
a little on Sunday well ahead of a cold front, but should remain
below advisory thresholds.

A weak pressure gradient then maintains sub advisory conditions
across the waters through mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR