Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 231828 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 228 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds from the north, with a series of weak low pressure troughs moving into the area through Saturday. High pressure continues to build into the beginning of next week. A warm front may impact the area during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Adjusted max temperatures up a degree or two based on current temperatures. Otherwise, an upper level trough over the region will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies with slight chance of a rain shower this afternoon. Temperatures climb into the middle and upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Winds may briefly increase as the surface trough moves through this evening, maintaining mixing into the early part of the night, which will hinder more rapid temperature falls. Overnight with the high building in winds are expected to decrease, and combined with drying in subsident flow should allow for favorable radiational cooling. Undercut guidance a bit given the remaining snowpack and the aforementioned radiational cooling potential. Lows will be around 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normals. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Canadian air will flow into the region Sat ngt and Sun as a low 1040s high drifts across nrn Quebec into Labrador. Low pres over the Atlc will combine with the high to produce brisk nly winds. This will keep wind chills in the 20s to around freezing on Sun. Mixing to h85 yields temps in the low 40s. There could be a few rain or snow shwrs with cyclonic flow aloft. Right now the timing of the h5 low appears too fast to produce optimal convection across the area. If it were to come thru during day, more widespread pcpn would be possible. Pops were left at slight chance Sat ngt and Sun, consistent with the previous fcst. A blend of guidance and 2m data were used for temps. Fair weather Mon and Tue with high pres ridging swd thru the area. The National Blend was used for temps. Decreasing winds but not calm, especially along the CT and LI coast, with low pres spinning over the Atlc. For Wed and Thu, uncertainty grows. A warm front will attempt to develop under sw flow aloft. This would normally result in chances for shwrs in the fcst. In this case however, the ECMWF continues to meander the low over the Atlc, and draws the it back closer to the coast enhancing the subsidence over the region. Both the 12z and 00z ECMWF had the same idea, but the 00z run is even closer to the area and therefore exerts more of an influence. The GFS is too far out to sea and allows for better chances for rain. As a result, pops have been limited to slight chance for the period, with the National Blend used for temps. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A trough of low pressure moves through the area this afternoon, followed by high pressure building in from eastern Canada this weekend. VFR through the TAF period. Ceilings develop this afternoon around 5000ft and then will gradually lift this evening and scatter out by daybreak. VFR ceilings will likely redevelop Saturday afternoon. W-NW winds this afternoon around 10KT. An occasional gusts 15-18kt is possible. Winds veer back to the N-NW this evening. Gusts may linger during the nighttime hours behind the surface trough. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/ KJFK TAF Comments: Winds may vary on either side of 310 magnetic this afternoon. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds may vary on either side of 310 magnetic this afternoon. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds may vary on either side of 310 magnetic this afternoon. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt. KTEB TAF Comments: Winds may vary on either side of 310 magnetic this afternoon. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 15-18 kt. KISP TAF Comments: Winds may vary on either side of 310 magnetic this afternoon. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday...VFR. .Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR. Very low chance of isolated rain/snow showers with MVFR conditions. NE winds G20-25KT possible. .Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NE winds G20Kt possible, mainly at the coastal terminals. .Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... With high pressure building from the north, winds and seas should remain tranquil through Saturday. Winds will increase to sca lvls by late Sun mrng. Winds will decrease slightly on Mon, but cond should still be at sca lvls on the ocean and at least ern bays. Seas on the ocean will linger aoa 5 ft Tue, and may subside to blw 5 ft on Wed. Winds and waves on the protected waters blw sca lvls Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Expect snow melt over the next week, as high temps reach into the 40s through most of the period, and 50s mid next week. No hydrologic problems are anticipated through Thursday. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MD NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...DW MARINE...JMC/MD HYDROLOGY...JMC/MD EQUIPMENT...// is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.