Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220615 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 215 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be in control through early next week, then give way to low pressure mid week. Another low may impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Quiet and chilly night in store as strong high pressure continues to build into the region from the northwest. The atmosphere remains dry, so clear skies anticipated for the night. Evening sea breezes dissipate and winds lighten. Low temperatures will range from the low 30s across the interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Some frost is likely to develop where temperatures drop into the low-mid 30s with light winds, so have included frost mention in the grids. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Tranquil weather will continue Sunday into Sunday night with high pressure in control. Upper trough over southeast Canada moves further to the north and east over the North Atlantic. Heights will gradually rise as an upper ridge over the northern Plains approaches. One last shortwave dives down the back side of the upper trough, which may include a weak surface trough passage in the evening. There will be no discernible change to sensible weather other than a few fair weather clouds in the afternoon and evening. The air mass continues to moderate on Sunday, so temperatures should be several degrees warmer than those on Saturday. Highs will be near seasonable levels in the lower 60s. Good radiational cooling conditions expected Sunday night with temperatures falling into the 30s inland and lower to middle 40s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridge Monday and Tuesday gives way to an approaching shortwave that slowly lifts northeast and phases with northern stream shortwave by Wednesday. As this unfolds, sfc low tracks to the east coast, and passes to the northeast Wednesday/Thursday. Rain chances increase during this time, mainly from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The local area should remain between this departing shortwave, sfc low and downstream shortwave that approaches late in the week, and into next weekend, although timing remains in question. As such, generally dry conditions are expected during this time, with perhaps spotty showers, low coverage. Then higher probabilities for showers are expected Friday night or Saturday, again dependent on timing. As for temperatures, much of the period will feature seasonable temperatures with the exception of Wednesday, where onshore flow will keep highs several degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions continue as high pressure continues to build across the region through the TAF period. Winds will be initially NW-N near 5-10 kt and then the winds will become mostly near 10 kt Sunday morning with sea breezes developing late morning into the afternoon. Some brief afternoon gusts to near 15 kt are forecast for some terminals. Another daytime trough within the region will make the wind direction forecast uncertain Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening along with the timing of the sea breeze. Higher confidence of sea breezes and their forecast timing at KJFK, KLGA, KBDR, KGON, and KISP but less confident with KEWR, KTEB, KHPN. KSWF will remain with NW flow. Winds become light and variable Sunday night with wind speeds of near 5 kt or less. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local enhancement to winds late Monday afternoon at KJFK with SE winds 10-15KT gusts near 20KT. More SE winds 10-15KT gusts near 20KT for Tuesday afternoon. .Tuesday night through Wednesday...MVFR or lower increasingly likely with rain. SE winds 10-15KT gusts near 20KT Tuesday evening. E winds near 10-15KT, with gusts near 20KT on Wednesday. Gusts subside late Wednesday afternoon. .Thursday...Chance of showers with MVFR possible. SW-W gusts to 20KT possible.
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&& .MARINE... Tranquil conditions continue into early next week on the waters with high pressure in control and a weak pressure gradient. As high pressure builds, then moves east, tranquil conditions are expected across the area waters Monday and Tuesday. Increasing easterly flow ahead of an area of low pressure and warm front should result in building seas Wednesday. Winds will shift as low pressure and frontal boundaries pass Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas should subside some, and Wavewatch III output lowered during this timeframe. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain is likely during the mid week period, but no hydrologic issues are anticipated at this time. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/PW NEAR TERM...DS/PW SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JM MARINE...DS/PW HYDROLOGY...DS/PW EQUIPMENT...

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