Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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000 FXUS66 KOTX 052348 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 448 PM PDT Sun Apr 5 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled and cool weather will persist early this week. A threat of isolated to scattered showers will continue tonight, especially over southeast Washington into the central and southern Panhandle. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible too. Shower chances linger mainly over Idaho Monday. Drier conditions develop Tuesday onward, with temperatures trending warmer. The next chance of showers returns toward next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday: Continued shower chances will gradually give way to drier weather this period. Tonight a deformation axis will linger near the SE CWA, pooling moisture and instability, while an the axis of a stretching upper wave moves in from the northwest. This afternoon and evening areas of the southeast CWA will see a threat of some showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vcnty of the aforementioned deformation axis. The best threat will be over the Palouse and Central Panhandle southward, with risk waning overnight into Monday morning. Meanwhile the stretching trough axis will bring other shower chances over the northern to northeast counties, with the best risk near the Canadian border and northern Panhandle. Otherwise expect some clouds over the northeast CWA, with the threat of patchy fog developing overnight into early tomorrow morning. By Monday the main trough axis moves east and the region will be in a northwest flow. Lingering moisture and instability will keep shower chances alive over the Idaho Panhandle and over the Blue Mountains, as well as along the immediate WA/ID border. Yet shower coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered, with the best threat around the central Panhandle mountains. Drier conditions develop for Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures are projected to warm closer to average Monday and slightly above by Tuesday. The other thing of note in the forecast will be winds. With the area in the vicinity of the northwest to southeast oriented jet and in a tighter gradient between the central Canada low and high pressure nosing in from the west, some breezy conditions are expected. The winds are expected to be most notable in and afternoon evening Monday and Tuesday. At this time it looks like 7 to 15 mph winds, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, especially in unsheltered areas. Locally higher winds are possible near and just down wind of the lee of the Cascades. /Cote` Tuesday night through Thursday: Dry weather with a warming trend is on tap for the middle of next week as high pressure over the eastern Pacific builds into the Inland Northwest. Look for temperatures to warm into the mid 50s to 60s across the region on Wednesday, and continued warming Thursday with some locations in the lower Columbia Basin potentially reaching 70+ degrees. Thursday currently looks to be roughly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Friday through Sunday: Forecast confidence lowers toward the end of the upcoming week. Medium-range models generally agree that shortwave energy will spill over the top and flatten the upper ridge, and bring some cooling along with chances of precipitation. The timing and track of these impulses remain uncertain however, per ensemble guidance and WPC clusters. As such, our forecast calls for a general chance of rain showers and high mountain snow during this timeframe. Dang && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A split flow regime exists over the western US with northeastern WA and N ID under threat for ISOLD -SHRA this evening as the northern branch short wave trough sweeps by just to the north of the forecast area. The KGEG and KCOE TAF sites may see a shower in the vicinity of the TAF sites but the threat is low. To the south...a lingering deformation axis from the southern branch closed low will set up a boundary for -SHRA this evening mainly threatening the KLWS and KPUW TAF sites. Overnight a moist boundary layer from recent precipitation will bring the threat of stratus with MVFR or locally IFR ceilings over or near the KPUW/KLWS/KGEG/KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. EAT/MWH are expected to remain VFR, with areas of middle to high clouds declining in to Monday. /MJF && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 33 57 34 58 33 60 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 34 55 35 56 32 58 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 36 55 35 56 33 58 / 50 20 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 42 61 39 63 39 64 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 Colville 31 60 31 62 30 63 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 34 52 34 53 30 56 / 30 20 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 35 51 36 52 32 56 / 50 40 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 33 65 36 67 34 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 34 62 38 62 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 33 60 34 61 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$

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