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000
FXUS66 KOTX 052348
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
448 PM PDT Sun Apr 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cool weather will persist early this week.
A threat of isolated to scattered showers will continue tonight,
especially over southeast Washington into the central and southern
Panhandle. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible too. Shower
chances linger mainly over Idaho Monday. Drier conditions develop
Tuesday onward, with temperatures trending warmer. The next
chance of showers returns toward next weekend.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday: Continued shower chances will
gradually give way to drier weather this period. Tonight a
deformation axis will linger near the SE CWA, pooling moisture and
instability, while an the axis of a stretching upper wave moves
in from the northwest. This afternoon and evening areas of the
southeast CWA will see a threat of some showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the vcnty of the aforementioned deformation axis.
The best threat will be over the Palouse and Central Panhandle
southward, with risk waning overnight into Monday morning.
Meanwhile the stretching trough axis will bring other shower
chances over the northern to northeast counties, with the best
risk near the Canadian border and northern Panhandle. Otherwise
expect some clouds over the northeast CWA, with the threat of
patchy fog developing overnight into early tomorrow morning.

By Monday the main trough axis moves east and the region will be
in a northwest flow. Lingering moisture and instability will keep
shower chances alive over the Idaho Panhandle and over the Blue
Mountains, as well as along the immediate WA/ID border. Yet shower
coverage is expected to be isolated to widely scattered, with the
best threat around the central Panhandle mountains. Drier
conditions develop for Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures are
projected to warm closer to average Monday and slightly above by
Tuesday. The other thing of note in the forecast will be winds.
With the area in the vicinity of the northwest to southeast
oriented jet and in a tighter gradient between the central Canada
low and high pressure nosing in from the west, some breezy
conditions are expected. The winds are expected to be most notable
in and afternoon evening Monday and Tuesday. At this time it
looks like 7 to 15 mph winds, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph,
especially in unsheltered areas. Locally higher winds are possible
near and just down wind of the lee of the Cascades. /Cote`

Tuesday night through Thursday: Dry weather with a warming trend
is on tap for the middle of next week as high pressure over the
eastern Pacific builds into the Inland Northwest. Look for
temperatures to warm into the mid 50s to 60s across the region on
Wednesday, and continued warming Thursday with some locations in
the lower Columbia Basin potentially reaching 70+ degrees.
Thursday currently looks to be roughly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year.

Friday through Sunday: Forecast confidence lowers toward the end
of the upcoming week. Medium-range models generally agree that
shortwave energy will spill over the top and flatten the upper
ridge, and bring some cooling along with chances of precipitation.
The timing and track of these impulses remain uncertain however,
per ensemble guidance and WPC clusters. As such, our forecast
calls for a general chance of rain showers and high mountain snow
during this timeframe.
Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A split flow regime exists over the western US with
northeastern WA and N ID under threat for ISOLD -SHRA this evening
as the northern branch short wave trough sweeps by just to the
north of the forecast area. The KGEG and KCOE TAF sites may see a
shower in the vicinity of the TAF sites but the threat is low. To
the south...a lingering deformation axis from the southern branch
closed low will set up a boundary for -SHRA this evening mainly
threatening the KLWS and KPUW TAF sites. Overnight a moist
boundary layer from recent precipitation will bring the threat of
stratus with MVFR or locally IFR ceilings over or near the
KPUW/KLWS/KGEG/KSFF and KCOE TAF sites. EAT/MWH are expected to
remain VFR, with areas of middle to high clouds declining in to
Monday. /MJF


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  57  34  58  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  34  55  35  56  32  58 /  20  20   0   0   0   0
Pullman        36  55  35  56  33  58 /  50  20   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       42  61  39  63  39  64 /  30  20   0   0   0   0
Colville       31  60  31  62  30  63 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      34  52  34  53  30  56 /  30  20   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        35  51  36  52  32  56 /  50  40  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     33  65  36  67  34  67 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      34  62  38  62  35  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           33  60  34  61  34  63 /  20   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$