Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 191920
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
220 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

The main weather tonight and tomorrow will be the cold front that
will move into northwest Oklahoma tonight around 07Z and move
through all but perhaps the far southeast counties by 21/00Z.
There will be a decent gradient of high temperatures across the
area with the front moving through. Ahead of the front, clouds
will increase, mainly across southeast Oklahoma. Moisture return
is rather shallow though so do not expect precipitation as this
front moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

Mid-level ridging will set in Thursday in the wake of a trough
exiting the area. A cold front that will have pushed through the
area Wednesday, will be stalled along the Red River Thursday
morning. Throughout the day on Thursday, southerly surface flow
will push this boundary northward. This lingering boundary will be
the focal point for some strong to severe thunderstorms. The
question that remains is how far north the boundary will move, and
how much moisture advection the northward surge can bring with
it. These questions will help distinguish coverage, timing and
intensity. If severe storms are to occur, large hail will be the
primary threat.

Later in the weekend, a mid-level trough will begin to move into
the area, most likely by Sunday morning. Isentropic ascent ahead
of this lead wave will help aid in showers and storms Sunday
afternoon/evening in parts of north central Oklahoma. A warming
trend is expected this weekend into next week with highs in the
low 80s for most of the area, and upper 80s in parts of southwest
Oklahoma into western north Texas.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

VFR conditions are expected this evening and most of the overnight
hours. There may be areas of stratus with MVFR ceilings move into
southeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning, although if this does occur,
it should likely remain southeast of the TAF sites.

Overnight, a low-level jet will develop again creating non-
convective low-level wind shear over much of the area overnight.

A cold front will be moving into northwestern Oklahoma after 06Z
tonight and move through all of the TAF sites by 16Z or so
Wednesday with winds becoming northwest/northerly behind the
front.

&&

.UPPER AIR...
Issued at 451 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

No Upper Air flights are planned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  74  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         56  77  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  83  54  80 /   0   0  10   0
Gage OK           47  71  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  73  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         59  82  58  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26


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