Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160708 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 308 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today through part of Saturday with a series of crossing disturbances. Dry weather returns Sunday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A shortwave in SW flow ahead of the main Midwestern trough is progged to approach the region today, with increasing POPs for showers and thunderstorms. Maintained likely POPs for much of the area by afternoon when the greatest shortwave support is progged. Existing cloud cover should limit the amount of diurnal destabilization and the resultant severe weather potential. PWATs increase, though a sufficient storm motion should preclude a significant flood threat. Highs should be near seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Maintained likely POPs tonight as the shortwave completes its passage, and low level jet support increases. Included a slight chance of thunder through the night with the low level jet and minimal elevated instability. Additional shortwaves in SW flow ahead of the main trough should support periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday. Shear is progged to increase some, though cloud cover should limit instability. A few strong storms are possible if enough partial clearing and greater destabilization occurs. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue Friday night through part of Saturday as the main upper trough, and its associated cold front, cross the region. Tapered POPs down from N-S Sat as the front sinks S. Expect mainly dry conditions area wide by late Saturday night as the front exits. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging should return dry weather for Sunday and most of Monday. A trough is progged to advance out of the Plains and approach/cross our region Tuesday through part of Wednesday. Maintained likely POPs Tue as the trough and its associated sfc low/cold front tracks across the region. Slight to low chance POPs were included for Wednesday until the trough exits E. Near to above average temperatures should fall to below average readings by midweek. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clouds will slowly lower and thicken with time as a shortwave approaches from the Ohio Valley. A few sprinkles/light rain showers are expected in southeast Ohio initially, with rain chances spreading eastward after sunrise. Activity should be widespread enough to justify prevailing SHRA mention, and also included VCTS with enough instability for scattered thunderstorms. Flight conditions will remain VFR in the mean through today, with brief drops to MVFR/IFR in heavier showers that are tough to time. After sunset, a moist boundary layer may allow ceilings to drop to MVFR levels at FKL/DUJ, although confidence in this is not high. Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue. Outlook... Brief restrictions are possible later Thursday night and Friday in showers and thunderstorms, possibly continuing into Saturday. VFR conditions expected later Saturday and Sunday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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