Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251924 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 224 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will prevail before transition to snow with crossing low pressure Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A deepening trough beginning to tilt negatively will approach from the West. Ahead of this, jet divergence aloft is allowing for broad upward vertical motion, thus brief rain showers should be expected off and on tonight before larger scale forcing begins Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong jet dynamics with subsequent frontogenesis will herald significant cyclogenesis beginning on Wednesday. In addition, phasing with a trough farther north will lower the heights even more and prompt a transition to snow with cold advection. This will bring brief heavy snowfall rates to consider where blocked flow (Fr ~ .8) is possible just West of the higher elevations. Generally we expect an inch or less of snow for much of the area, with a couple of inches possible N of I 80 and slightly more in the higher terrain of Preston, Tucker and Garrett counties. With the rapid decrease in pressure, wind gusts area wide will increase some, but will approach a notable 40 mph in higher elevations of Preston, Tucker and Garrett counties. As the low pressure propagates NE it will be oriented such that banded snow showers off of the lakes will be possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper trough is progged to remain across the Eastern CONUS through part of Saturday, maintaining periodic scattered snow showers with NW flow. Model ensembles then indicate ridging should build in through Monday with mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees below average over the weekend. JL && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A low pressure system will continue to provide lift to support occasional light rain into the evening. Mid and upper dry air will wrap up rain chances right before midnight. However, ceilings will continue to slowly lower to IFR at most terminals as the lower levels remain saturated. Further deterioration to LIFR ceilings, along with drizzle, will be possible tonight as the boundary layer cools; winds will be light and variable as the sfc low centers over Western PA. .Outlook... MVFR/IFR restrictions in rain and low clouds will continue Wednesday. A changeover to snow showers and cold northwest flow will then keep restrictions in the forecast into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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