National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 170804
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
404 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will continue through the week as several disturbances
cross the Ohio Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A new surface low is expected to strengthen over the Great Plains
this morning, and quickly move into the Ohio Valley late today. 500mb
model charts display an upper-level trough accompanying the surface
low by late afternoon. This will continue the threat for showers and
storms throughout the day. With the threat for heavy rain increasing,
and an already saturated ground in place, the risk for flash flooding
has increased as well. Because of this, a flash flood watch has been
issued for today and into Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
This pattern of disturbances moving the boundary north and south will
continue through the remainder of the short term. This will
necessitate the inclusion of showers and storms right through
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Although the timing of any shortwave troughs in the general zonal
flow appears to have lower predictability, we know the boundary and
continued moisture will be present. Several shortwave troughs will
cross our region during this time, suggesting convective chances for
most days through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving north through
the region as the front retreats northward. Briefly lower vsbys are
possible with heavier rain. MVFR/IFR Cigs are expected for the
remainder of the overnight except at FKL/DUJ where LIFR Cigs/Vsby
will continue with fog.

Ceilings are expected to improve after daybreak with mixing, though
scattered lower cigs will persist. Timing of showers and
thunderstorms Monday afternoon is somewhat uncertain, though expect
MVFR Cigs at most sites through the afternoon with briefly lower
vsbys in heavier thunderstorms.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are possible through the week as a frontal
zone sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to
produce frequent showers and storms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for MDZ001.
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.

&&

$$