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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
873
FXUS61 KPBZ 220500
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind through mid afternoon.
Dry weather and seasonable temperature will follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Rain beginning to move into eastern OH will continue to progress
west overnight. Strong forcing and climatologically high PWAT values
will support an efficient period for rainfall which reinforces the
categorical PoPs. Strong warm advection/southerly flow will keep
temperatures steady through the night with lows 10-15 degrees above
seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface cold front will complete it`s passage around mid afternoon
today followed by building high pressure behind the front. Gusty
winds will persist through Wednesday with latest guidance and analogs
both suggesting 25-30mph wind gusts at times. Dry conditions will
continue on Thursday as high pressure remains in control. Winds will
lessen with a more relaxed pressure gradient. Temperatures will
remain near seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Southwesterly flow will increase ahead of a deepening central CONUS
trough and return a narrow band of moisture to the region. Shortwave
passage through the trough may promote surface low development and
precipitation but at this time, the model guidance varies. Generally
stayed in line with ensemble guidance and near seasonal temperature
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Deterioration to MVFR/local IFR is expected from W-E through early
morning as showers spread across the region as a cold front
approaches. The degraded conditions should continue until the showers
end a couple of hours after FROPA when VFR returns. Increased mixing
after FROPA should also result in SW wind gusts to 20kt. CU/stratocu
cigs should persist through the rest of the TAF period with cold
advection and upper troughing.

Given the encroachment of a llvl jet with the frontal advance, llvl
wind shear was included early this morning.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are possible with a Fri cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$