Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241248 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 848 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy conditions will persist today, with diminishing rain showers. A chance for rain will return on Sunday, particularly in the afternoon south of Pittsburgh. Higher chances for rain are expected with early week low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers and drizzle should taper off this morning as a cold front completes its passage. Cold advection with a shortwave over Lake Erie will maintain a stratocu cloud layer for much of the day, though building sfc high pressure and dry advection should result in partial clearing by mid to late afternoon. The daytime highs (8AM-8PM) are expected to be around 5 degrees below average. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sfc high pressure centered across the Upper Great Lakes should maintain dry weather for most of the area tonight. A shortwave is expected to cross the SE CONUS-Mid Atlantic region Sunday, as an associated inverted sfc trough extends to Srn PA. Rain chances are expected to increase, mainly S-SE of PIT, as this wave crosses. Increasing jet supported ascent, moist advection in SW flow ahead of an approaching Central CONUS trough, and a weak sfc wave, should maintain ocnl rain chances Sunday night and Monday. The best chance for widespread rain is expected Monday night as deep layer moisture and ascent increase further across the Upper Ohio Valley region, and moisture pools north of a sfc front/wave of low pressure. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain chances should continue through Tuesday night as the Central CONUS trough crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. Dry weather should return Wednesday under building sfc high pressure. Model ensembles then indicate a SWrn CONUS low should track ENE and phase with a northern stream trough. This trough is expected to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region mid to late week, with additional rain chances expected. Temperatures are expected to average near to a few degrees below seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR/IFR cigs are anticipated into the afternoon, with an improvement to VFR from north to south late in the day. Gusty NW winds this morning will weaken by afternoon. A return to VFR is expected at all ports this evening, with the exception of MGW which will see MVFR cigs into the overnight hours. .Outlook... VFR conditions will return by Saturday night. Restriction potential returns early next week as the next low pressure system approaches. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.