Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240355 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1155 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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Seasonable weather will continue over the next couple days before warm, humid air returns by mid-week with the chance of rain.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Showers continue to shift south and east and out of the Upper Ohio Valley, leaving but a few lingering showers across the higher elevations. Overnight low temperatures will be near the climatological normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Jet dynamics are forecast to dig low pres ovr the srn high plains through Tuesday with split flow dvlpg ovr the CONUS and ridging ovr the ern U.S. Dry weather is thus expected for the Upr OH Valley Region, but with temperature moderation back to the calculated-normals. Latest model data indicates gradually increasing rain chance late Wednesday as the eastern CONUS ridge begins to erode, with further warming and a humidity increase for wrn zones especially. By Thursday, the aforementioned srn Plains low is progged to have trundled ovr the Lwr/middle MS Valley, with deeper moisture flow ovr the Upr OH. Emerging shortwave activity interacting with that moisture supply wl increase the rain chance toward categorical numbers as warmth and humidity further increase region-wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The weekend will be largely unsettled as an upper trough settles over the eastern CONUS and supports periodic convection and seasonably warm temperature. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Ceilings will continue to slowly lower from south to north tonight due to ongoing moisture advection in southwest flow aloft associated with a mid-level shortwave trough. An eventual drop to MVFR ceilings is expected through tomorrow at most terminals, although an improvement back to VFR is expected by evening as the shortwave departs. Wind will be light throughout. .Outlook... The next chance of general restrictions arrives with low pressure on Thursday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$

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