Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170804 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 404 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will continue through the week as several disturbances cross the Ohio Valley region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A new surface low is expected to strengthen over the Great Plains this morning, and quickly move into the Ohio Valley late today. 500mb model charts display an upper-level trough accompanying the surface low by late afternoon. This will continue the threat for showers and storms throughout the day. With the threat for heavy rain increasing, and an already saturated ground in place, the risk for flash flooding has increased as well. Because of this, a flash flood watch has been issued for today and into Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This pattern of disturbances moving the boundary north and south will continue through the remainder of the short term. This will necessitate the inclusion of showers and storms right through Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Although the timing of any shortwave troughs in the general zonal flow appears to have lower predictability, we know the boundary and continued moisture will be present. Several shortwave troughs will cross our region during this time, suggesting convective chances for most days through the extended period. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving north through the region as the front retreats northward. Briefly lower vsbys are possible with heavier rain. MVFR/IFR Cigs are expected for the remainder of the overnight except at FKL/DUJ where LIFR Cigs/Vsby will continue with fog. Ceilings are expected to improve after daybreak with mixing, though scattered lower cigs will persist. Timing of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon is somewhat uncertain, though expect MVFR Cigs at most sites through the afternoon with briefly lower vsbys in heavier thunderstorms. .Outlook... Periodic restrictions are possible through the week as a frontal zone sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to produce frequent showers and storms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday night for MDZ001. OH...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday night for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday night for PAZ013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late Tuesday night for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.