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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 160708
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
308 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected today
through part of Saturday with a series of crossing disturbances.
Dry weather returns Sunday under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A shortwave in SW flow ahead of the main Midwestern trough is
progged to approach the region today, with increasing POPs for
showers and thunderstorms. Maintained likely POPs for much of
the area by afternoon when the greatest shortwave support is
progged. Existing cloud cover should limit the amount of diurnal
destabilization and the resultant severe weather potential.
PWATs increase, though a sufficient storm motion should preclude
a significant flood threat. Highs should be near seasonal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Maintained likely POPs tonight as the shortwave completes its
passage, and low level jet support increases. Included a slight
chance of thunder through the night with the low level jet and
minimal elevated instability.

Additional shortwaves in SW flow ahead of the main trough should
support periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through
Friday. Shear is progged to increase some, though cloud cover
should limit instability. A few strong storms are possible if
enough partial clearing and greater destabilization occurs.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue Friday
night through part of Saturday as the main upper trough, and
its associated cold front, cross the region. Tapered POPs down
from N-S Sat as the front sinks S. Expect mainly dry conditions
area wide by late Saturday night as the front exits.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging should return dry weather for Sunday and most of Monday.
A trough is progged to advance out of the Plains and
approach/cross our region Tuesday through part of Wednesday.
Maintained likely POPs Tue as the trough and its associated sfc
low/cold front tracks across the region. Slight to low chance
POPs were included for Wednesday until the trough exits E. Near
to above average temperatures should fall to below average
readings by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds will slowly lower and thicken with time as a shortwave
approaches from the Ohio Valley. A few sprinkles/light rain
showers are expected in southeast Ohio initially, with rain
chances spreading eastward after sunrise. Activity should be
widespread enough to justify prevailing SHRA mention, and also
included VCTS with enough instability for scattered
thunderstorms. Flight conditions will remain VFR in the mean
through today, with brief drops to MVFR/IFR in heavier showers
that are tough to time.

After sunset, a moist boundary layer may allow ceilings to drop
to MVFR levels at FKL/DUJ, although confidence in this is not
high. Scattered to numerous rain showers will continue.

Outlook...
Brief restrictions are possible later Thursday night and Friday
in showers and thunderstorms, possibly continuing into
Saturday. VFR conditions expected later Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$