Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242359 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 759 PM EDT Sun May 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain generally dry and warm weather through midweek, with the exception being a very low chance for afternoon or evening storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... No further changes were needed for the eve update. Previous... Building high pressure will maintain dry, warm, and more humid weather tonight. Expect lows 10 to 15 degreees above the low 50s averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Flow across the CONUS generally will remain weak through mid-week as the primary belt of westerlies remains in Canada. A slow-moving trough in the Srn Plains will enable an ern-CONUS ridge to amplify early this week, with the ridge axis building into the OH Valley. Despite increasing moisture and instability, lack of low-level convergence and broad subsidence amid the upper-level ridge axis will suppress a widespread threat of convection during the early half of the week, with the best potential being on the periphery of the ridge in an area west of a line from ZZV to FKL as storms form in central OH and near Lake Erie. Temperature during the early week will be unseasonably warm, with some sites approaching 90F on Tue before a slow trend into the mid- upper 80s later in the week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A prominent trough will set up in the upper Great Lakes region late in the week, which will supply a cold front`s attendant focus for convective development in an unstable and modestly sheared airmass. Drier and seasonably cool weather are expected in the post-frontal airmass with a persistent ern CONUS trough. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR under building high pres is expected to be marred only by localized peri-dawn fog. Scattered aftn cumulus Monday will fade as temperature falls blo convective thresholds during the evening. .Outlook... Local restrictions are possible in peri-dawn fog. Restrictions are likely with a Thu cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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