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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241248
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
848 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy conditions will persist today, with diminishing rain showers.
A chance for rain will return on Sunday, particularly in the
afternoon south of Pittsburgh. Higher chances for rain are expected
with early week low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and drizzle should taper off this morning as a cold front
completes its passage. Cold advection with a shortwave over Lake Erie
will maintain a stratocu cloud layer for much of the day, though
building sfc high pressure and dry advection should result in partial
clearing by mid to late afternoon. The daytime highs (8AM-8PM) are
expected to be around 5 degrees below average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc high pressure centered across the Upper Great Lakes should
maintain dry weather for most of the area tonight. A shortwave is
expected to cross the SE CONUS-Mid Atlantic region Sunday, as an
associated inverted sfc trough extends to Srn PA. Rain chances are
expected to increase, mainly S-SE of PIT, as this wave crosses.

Increasing jet supported ascent, moist advection in SW flow ahead of
an approaching Central CONUS trough, and a weak sfc wave, should
maintain ocnl rain chances Sunday night and Monday. The best chance
for widespread rain is expected Monday night as deep layer moisture
and ascent increase further across the Upper Ohio Valley region, and
moisture pools north of a sfc front/wave of low pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances should continue through Tuesday night as the Central
CONUS trough crosses the Upper Ohio Valley region. Dry weather
should return Wednesday under building sfc high pressure. Model
ensembles then indicate a SWrn CONUS low should track ENE and phase
with a northern stream trough. This trough is expected to approach
and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region mid to late week, with
additional rain chances expected. Temperatures are expected to
average near to a few degrees below seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR cigs are anticipated into the afternoon, with an
improvement to VFR from north to south late in the day. Gusty NW
winds this morning will weaken by afternoon.

A return to VFR is expected at all ports this evening, with the
exception of MGW which will see MVFR cigs into the overnight hours.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions will return by Saturday night. Restriction potential
returns early next week as the next low pressure system approaches.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$