Area Forecast Discussion
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873 FXUS61 KPBZ 220500 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 100 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring rain and gusty wind through mid afternoon. Dry weather and seasonable temperature will follow. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Rain beginning to move into eastern OH will continue to progress west overnight. Strong forcing and climatologically high PWAT values will support an efficient period for rainfall which reinforces the categorical PoPs. Strong warm advection/southerly flow will keep temperatures steady through the night with lows 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface cold front will complete it`s passage around mid afternoon today followed by building high pressure behind the front. Gusty winds will persist through Wednesday with latest guidance and analogs both suggesting 25-30mph wind gusts at times. Dry conditions will continue on Thursday as high pressure remains in control. Winds will lessen with a more relaxed pressure gradient. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Southwesterly flow will increase ahead of a deepening central CONUS trough and return a narrow band of moisture to the region. Shortwave passage through the trough may promote surface low development and precipitation but at this time, the model guidance varies. Generally stayed in line with ensemble guidance and near seasonal temperature through the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deterioration to MVFR/local IFR is expected from W-E through early morning as showers spread across the region as a cold front approaches. The degraded conditions should continue until the showers end a couple of hours after FROPA when VFR returns. Increased mixing after FROPA should also result in SW wind gusts to 20kt. CU/stratocu cigs should persist through the rest of the TAF period with cold advection and upper troughing. Given the encroachment of a llvl jet with the frontal advance, llvl wind shear was included early this morning. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with a Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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