Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151247 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 747 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain expected through the weekend with the approach and passage of low pressure. Snow chances return Monday and Tuesday with cold flow off the Lake Region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Made some minor changes to the forecast, mostly sharpening the northern PoP gradient for the next few hours based on radar/hi- res model trends. Forecast generally remains on track. Previous discussion... Rain will continue today as an area of deep low pressure tracks northeast over the Ohio river valley. Rates have been relatively low at 0.10 an hour or less...but expect a slight uptick in intensity this afternoon and evening with increased upper level support. Since the rainfall will persist over an extended period of time, flooding hazards are not likely. A few isolated creeks may rise into action stage. WPC and OHRFC data was primarily used for QPF amounts. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... By this evening the upper level low is expected to be positioned over central Tennessee. Rain will continue to progress, but rainfall rates will decrease overnight as the system continues to transition ENE. By Sunday night our region will be on the backside of the upper level low and northwest flow will dominate; colder air will gradually make its way into our region...with portions of our northern counties and areas in higher elevations expected to experience a light wintry mix late Sunday/early Monday morning. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong northwest flow should maintain snow shower chances in the regions that usually benefit from lake enhancement. Dry weather is still expected through mid week under a building ridge ahead of a Western CONUS trough. Rain chances return later on Thursday as an upper level trough advances across the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Areas of MVFR/local IFR in rain are expected through the TAF period as low pressure advances across the TN and OH Valley regions. In between waves of rain, occasional improvement to VFR cigs is expected. Outlook... Widespread restrictions with periodic rain are expected to persist through Sunday with the crossing low. Restrictions are possible Monday with a crossing upper trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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