Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240355
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1155 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Seasonable weather will continue over the next couple days
before warm, humid air returns by mid-week with the chance of
rain.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers continue to shift south and east and out of the Upper
Ohio Valley, leaving but a few lingering showers across the
higher elevations. Overnight low temperatures will be near the
climatological normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Jet dynamics are forecast to dig low pres ovr the srn high
plains through Tuesday with split flow dvlpg ovr the CONUS and
ridging ovr the ern U.S. Dry weather is thus expected for the
Upr OH Valley Region, but with temperature moderation back to
the calculated-normals.
Latest model data indicates gradually increasing rain chance
late Wednesday as the eastern CONUS ridge begins to erode, with
further warming and a humidity increase for wrn zones
especially.
By Thursday, the aforementioned srn Plains low is progged to
have trundled ovr the Lwr/middle MS Valley, with deeper moisture
flow ovr the Upr OH. Emerging shortwave activity interacting
with that moisture supply wl increase the rain chance toward
categorical numbers as warmth and humidity further increase
region-wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The weekend will be largely unsettled as an upper trough
settles over the eastern CONUS and supports periodic convection
and seasonably warm temperature.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Ceilings will continue to slowly lower from south to north
tonight due to ongoing moisture advection in southwest flow
aloft associated with a mid-level shortwave trough. An eventual
drop to MVFR ceilings is expected through tomorrow at most
terminals, although an improvement back to VFR is expected by
evening as the shortwave departs. Wind will be light
throughout.
.Outlook...
The next chance of general restrictions arrives with low
pressure on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$