Area Forecast Discussion
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416 FXUS61 KPBZ 210922 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 522 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend towards seasonable temperatures into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Only minor updates to sky cover and hourly T/Td were needed at 520 AM. Forecast is on track. Previous discussion... High pressure centered over the southern Great Lakes will keep our quiet weather pattern going. Today will not be as crystal clear as Friday though, as cirrus and eventually mid cloud will spill over the flattening Mississippi Valley ridge, aided in development by shallow Northeast U.S. troughing and RRQ jet dynamics. The low levels remain much drier, and in fact lowered dewpoints this afternoon on the expectation of decent mixing. Temperatures will warm as compared to yesterday, but remain several degrees below climatological norms. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... The clouds will linger through tonight, keeping radiational cooling in check somewhat, and then get shunted south Sunday as the surface high drifts into our area. Meanwhile, the aforementioned upper ridge will only slowly push northeastward, finally working into our area by Monday. As this occurs, a Plains low will drift into the Deep South by Monday morning, and then turn north towards the Tennessee Valley during the day. Northward progression of moisture is a bit slower than in previous runs, and elected to remove PoPs for Monday, although clouds will be on the increase. Temperatures will complete their quest to reach seasonal levels during this period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Models generally agree in lifting the upper low into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and degenerating it into an open wave as it crosses the Appalachians on Wednesday. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will allow for rain through this period. PoPs/QPF are higher in the ridges than in areas to the west given the track of the shortwave. The models no longer phase this first wave with a followup northern stream disturbance, but there remains disagreement on the handling of the next couple of shortwaves rotating through yet another developing longwave trough. Kept some fairly general PoPs in the forecast through the week. Temperatures will generally remain near or several degrees below climatology. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sfc high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period, through mid/high clouds should increase under weak upper troughing. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with Tue/Wed low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.