Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200530 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 130 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances should end Sunday morning as a cold front exits, with mainly dry weather expected the rest of the day under building high pressure. Rain chances return early in the week with crossing low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Scattered showers should continue overnight with the approach and passage of a cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are possible early as instability continues to diminish. The rain should end Sunday morning as the cold front exits, though areas S of I 70 are expected to be in close proximity of the front as it stalls. Maintained a slight chance of showers/tstms for that area. Otherwise, building sfc high pressure should return mainly dry weather for the afternoon as temperatures remain above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track slowly across the Midwest Sun night through Mon night, dragging the sfc front back nwd as a warm front and increasing potential for showers and storms. Temperature is expected to remain above seasonal average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The aforementioned low and associated cold front will cross the Upper OH Valley region Tue/Tue night and bring another round of showers and storms to the region. We will finally see a break in the weather the remainder of the work week as ridging builds in the region. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Scattered showers will remain possible ahead of a cold frontal passage overnight. Low clouds will increase overnight, with ceilings dropping to MVFR/IFR areawide given the abundant low- level moisture. Some MVFR mist is also possible, but fog is not expected to be a widespread issue given continued mixing in the boundary layer. High pressure will provide mostly dry weather behind the front into Sunday evening, with a return to VFR conditions by early afternoon. Southwest winds will shift to northwest behind the front, with speeds near or below 10 knots through the period. OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are expected into the middle of next week as the weather pattern remains active. No sustained periods of IFR are predicted, although thunderstorms on Mon/Tue could lead to such restrictions.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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