Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262329 CCA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 729 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather can be expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend, but rain chances should decline on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening with approach of a shortwave trough; however, intensity will be limited by marginal instability, compromised by warm mid levels, as well as relatively weak forcing and an overall weak wind field. These limitations will be offset by an increasing moisture profile and eventually warm rain processes as the warm layer is projected to exceed 10 kft later this eve. Conditions thus look favorable for locally heavy downpours. The moisture will limit the temperature dropoff so overnight lows were again progged well above the averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and storm coverage will diminish on Sunday in the wake of the shortwave, passage of which will not degrade regional warmth and humidity. Convection potential for Monday and Tuesday looks to be capped as broad upper high pressure builds over the region. Pattern thus favors continued above average temperature. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm and humid conditions are expected through the extended with daily chances for showers and storms as low pressure currently over the gulf is progged to impact the region during the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sct to nmrs shra and tsra will plague the region tonight as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Expect MVFR with lcl IFR in locally heavy rainfall. Terminals that receive rainfall will have the better chance for persistent restriction in the form of fog and stratus through the peri-dawn of Sunday. Improvement back to VFR is then expected through midday Sunday with declining shower activity. OUTLOOK... General VFR can be expected into midweek outside of isolated to scattered convection. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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